The field is set for Sunday’s race at Daytona with Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR DFS picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway.
NASCAR DFS Game Theory for Daytona
One of the basic ideas about NASCAR DFS that people tend to glaze over and thus why the general DFS population will only stick with NASCAR DFS as long as they’re profitable, is the concept of adjusting rosters to the type of race or track that NASCAR is at. The more laps and the shorter the track, the greater need for “dominators” there is as these drivers are prone to take advantage of starting position and dirty air and accumulate hundreds of fantasy points via laps led and fastest lap points. On the other end of this scale exist tracks like Daytona, where the laps are fewer and the racing has a penchant for chaos. Anyone and everyone can wreck out at any time in a superspeedway event like the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Therefore, building lineups with an eye toward place differential and finishing position points tend to be the path with not only the safest floor but the highest ceiling too.
With this said, the following drivers are recommended plays in cash games because they meet the following criteria:
- Have access to double-digit place differential (the number of positions they gain from start to finish)
- Start 20th or worse
- Exhibit a history of finishing well/surviving chaos in superspeedway events
- Should be able to finish in the top 12
Hitting multiple, or even all of these factors will give drivers a floor that is needed in cash games. Furthermore, for those that are new to superspeedway NASCAR DFS, don’t be shocked if lineups leave several thousands of dollars in salary cap left over. That will just be a natural result via the path that lineups are being created. The following blurbs are not going to be their typical deep dives into the statistical analysis behind playing a particular driver. In lieu of that, more drivers will be addressed with shorter bylines explaining the rationale behind them in cash games or tournaments.
Be sure to check out the Coke Zero Sugar 400 NASCAR DFS preview, where I give a full rundown of everything fantasy players should know heading into this weekend’s race at Daytona.
Fantasy NASCAR DFS Value Picks: Coke Zero Sugar 400
Denny Hamlin, 19th ($9,600 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)
Hovering right on the fenceline of playability for cash, the former three-time Daytona 500 winner starts near the midway point of the field. Normally, any driver starting 19th or higher wouldn’t make the cut for a cash game driver in a superspeedway race. However, Denny Hamlin can not only win this race but lead a slew of laps in the process. This is what makes Hamlin appealing as quasi-cash gameplay. If he can lead 30-50 laps, he can make up for the lack of place differential he doesn’t have compared to drivers starting further back in the field.
Chase Briscoe, 26th ($8,800 DraftKings, $5,800 FanDuel)
Since joining Stewart Haas Racing as a full-time Cup driver in 2021, Briscoe’s best finish in a superspeedway race is third at this year’s Daytona 500. However, save for one race, every other result in these types of races has been 11th through 21st, but that also includes just one DNF — back at Talladega. Briscoe brings a level of security, much like he demonstrated in the Xfinity Series when he was a constant threat to win. His history suggests that Briscoe is probably better suited for cash games, as it’s unlikely that he pushes for a top-10 result, but there’s nothing to rule him out from running with a train of Fords and grabbing a finish that won’t match his average running position.
Aric Almirola, 27th ($6,700 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
Fresh off the news that he’s not retiring but returning for two more seasons, Almirola goes from dead weight at Watkins Glen to a potential pillar here at Daytona. Whether at Richard Petty Motorsports or here at Stewart Haas Racing, Almirola’s identity as a Cup driver has been defined by his superspeedway prowess with wins at Daytona and Talladega and numerous other top-five finishes at those tracks, including finishing fifth in this season’s Daytona 500. His ceiling is a victory, and if he ends his day with a clean car, he’s probably a top-15 finisher.
Bubba Wallace, 30th ($7,800 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)
In whom should be Saturday’s highest-owned driver, Wallace gets the bad luck of the draw thanks to the field getting set by the metric. Starting 30th, Wallace has access to one of the highest place differentials in the field and is absolutely capable of turning in an 80+ fantasy day on both DraftKings and FanDuel with a victory. Not to mention, Wallace can punch his first career playoff ticket with a win.
Even if Wallace doesn’t reach the heights of his ceiling projections, he’s still a lock in cash with his place differential potential and finishes of 2-1-2-13-17-14 in his last six plate races.
Corey LaJoie, 31st ($5,800 DraftKings, $4,500 FanDuel)
Although LaJoie isn’t in a position to win and advance his way into the playoffs, it shouldn’t mean we see him any less aggressive on Saturday evening. For LaJoie and Spire Motorsports, tracks like Daytona present their best opportunity to break through and get LaJoie his first Cup Series victory. He’s been knocking on the doorstep for years now being within a lap of winning this race last season and getting blocked into the wall on the last lap at the second Atlanta race.
While not a reason to fade him in cash, if there is a narrative to spin for going under his projected ownership in tournaments, it’s the fact that LaJoie could easily try too hard for this win and end up wrecking out in the process.
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Landon Cassill, 35th ($4,600 DraftKings, $3,000 FanDuel)
The name, the car, the salary… everything about this play will have DFS players wondering what the big difference is between a driver like Cassill and, say, Cody Ware, B.J. McLeod, or even Noah Gragson who starts dead last. For one, as teams and manufacturers are prone to work with one another, Cassill has Corey LaJoie to work with and could easily tag along with him as he makes a late charge. Furthermore, Cassill has a demonstrated history, regardless of owner, of taking care of his equipment and turning in a positive result with double-digit place differential gained. In three plate races for 2022, Cassill’s finishes have gone 15, 19, and 24.
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