The field is set for Sunday’s race at Michigan with Bubba Wallace and Christopher Bell on the front row. Let’s delve into this week’s top Fantasy NASCAR picks and value plays for DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS lineups for the FireKeepers Casino 400.
Fantasy NASCAR Picks: FireKeepers Casino 400 Values
Kyle Busch, 3rd ($10,500 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)
Fastest in the single-lap practice category, third fastest in the consecutive five-lap average, Busch rolls off the grid in third at 4.5/1 odds. Bubba Wallace, on the pole, has a fast car and at his economical price on both sites, could be deployed hoping he garners some dominator points while remaining in the top five all afternoon. However, this is uncharted territory for Wallace in the Cup Series, and the jury will be out all Sunday morning deciding whether he has the skill to match his speed in holding off both Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, and Martin Truex Jr. Wallace, notably, has a Trucks victory at Michigan back in 2017 while driving for Jack Roush. However, this is Wallace’s first career pole, and protecting the lead from the onset is a situation anyone has yet to see him in since a 2015 Xfinity start at Dover.
In this scenario, with so much up in the air, choosing safety and floor for cash should leave DFS players to opt for Kyle Busch as their foundational lap leader. After starting the year slow at Auto Club Speedway, Busch has gone on to post top-five results at Las Vegas, Kansas, and Charlotte averaging 34.3 laps led and 26.7 fastest laps over those three events. Matching that with his seven-straight top-seven finishes at Michigan, Busch is about as safe as it gets up top in regards to a potential dominator.
Denny Hamlin, 9th ($10,300 DraftKings, $12,500 FanDuel)
In his post-qualifying interview, Hamlin bemoaned the fact that he didn’t have the fastest car this weekend, seeming to base his whole outlook on qualifying. On the other hand, despite qualifying ninth, he did post the fastest practice speeds in the five, 10, and 15 consecutive lap averages. All of the Toyotas showed up to Michigan with speed, and it appears Hamlin maybe Chief among them ready to rocket forward and contend for the win at +650 odds, only trailing teammate Kyle Busch.
This season, in Michigan’s corollary races, Hamlin struggled along with the rest of the Toyotas at Auto Club finishing 15th, then wrecked out at Las Vegas ending his day in 32nd (he led 32 laps that day with 21 fastest laps), but then rebounded at Kansas to finish fourth, and won at Charlotte.
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Alex Bowman, 30th ($8,200 DraftKings, $ 8,800 FanDuel)
Oddly, becoming a weekly fixture of the value plays article, Bowman managed to post top 10 speed in practice and backed it up with the eighth-slowest qualifying lap. Qualifying poorly but moving his way through the field has also become a part of Bowman’s modus operandi; the only hope is that he can kick the string of bad finishes he’s had the past few weeks. Not holding the chaos of the Indianapolis Road Course against him, Bowman should be a strong bet to move through the field and perhaps match his finishes at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks this season; first at Las Vegas, ninth at Kansas, and 10th at Charlotte.
Austin Hill, 31st ($6,400 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)
Todd Gilliland, 37th ($5,200 DraftKings, $3,500 FanDuel)
Gilliland looked exactly like a driver making the transition from his experience in the Trucks Series to his first laps at Michigan in the Cup car. His fastest single-lap practice speed was 35th out of 37 drivers and now he starts mired back in the field. The good news for Gilliland is mechanically this car is better than a plethora of vehicles starting in front of him. Over the course of 200 laps, he should have ample opportunity to muscle past the likes of Josh Bilicki, JJ Yeley, BJ McLeod, Cody Ware, and others and grab enough place differential to be worth rostering as a potential punt play in cash games. Furthermore, if this race turns into the attrition-fest that Brad Keselowski was anticipating, then Gilliland could become one of Sunday’s best values via this starting position. In the four corollary races of Auto Club, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Charlotte; Gilliland has two top-20 finishes with an average finish of 21st.
Speaking of Trucks drivers making the transition, Austin Hill had his own struggles. Hill is a former winner at this track in the Trucks Series, however, those laps plus his Saturday morning Xfinity practice laps weren’t near enough to prepare for him laps in the Generation Seven car. It appears the learning curve for Hill, in his first-ever Cup start, might be a little steep. Yet, just like Gilliland, rostering Hill is a bet on a talented driver conquering this curve as the laps tick-off and gaining position throughout the race.
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