NBA Player Props: Fade Paul George on the Glass? (March 21)

As the NBA playoffs approach, each game takes on some extra meaning. Because March Madness is also at the forefront of our minds, bettors looking to find the best NBA player props can easily get overwhelmed by the onslaught of on-court action this time of year. Even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers. The below Paul George player prop stands out as especially easy to miss.

Enter Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props for Tuesday.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 21

Paul George O/U 6.5 Rebounds

The Los Angeles Clippers will square off against the Oklahoma City Thunder on tonight’s late slate. George is averaging only 6.1 rebounds per game this year and isn’t expected to have an above-average showing, at least per NBA Bet Pro. George secured seven rebounds in his last meeting with the Thunder, although Kawhi Leonard missed that game.

George should secure only 6.3 rebounds tonight. The Thunder have the size necessary to make grabbing any rebound difficult, and George has gone over this number in only five of his 11 starts since the All-Star Break. Yet despite his low hit rate and the under’s expected win rate of 50%, this play sits well into the plus money at DraftKings. Bettors can find plenty of other mispriced props by subscribing to NBA Bet Pro!

Best NBA Player Prop: Paul George Under 6.5 Rebounds (+110) at DraftKings

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Bradley Beal O/U 4.5 Rebounds

The Washington Wizards and Orlando Magic will square off early this evening, and NBA Bet Pro doesn’t expect Bradley Beal to contribute much on the glass. Like the Thunder, the Magic have a bulky lineup that features a number of switchable players who can all contest rebounds.

Beal is averaging only 3.9 rebounds per game this year. He has faced the Magic once this season and came down with only four boards. NBA Bet Pro projects him for only 4.4 rebounds tonight, which gives the under an expected win rate of 52% — better than the implied odds available at BetMGM (50%). Readers new to BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance from the book.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander O/U 5.5 Rebounds

The books are also overestimating what Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will contribute on the glass. SGA is averaging only 4.8 rebounds per game this year. While that number has ticked up to 5.2 since the All-Star Break, SGA has still stayed under this total in three of his six starts since the pause.

NBA Bet Pro projects Gilgeous-Alexander for only 4.7 rebounds tonight. He has failed to go over this number in his last three games against the Clippers and is averaging only 4.3 rebounds per game against them throughout his career. The under has an expected win rate of 59%, better than the implied odds available at Caesars Sportsbook (56.9%). Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250!

Best NBA Player Prop: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Rebounds (-132) at Caesars

Best NBA Player Prop: Bradley Beal Under 4.5 Rebounds (+100) at BetMGM

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.