NBA Player Props: Good Night to Fade Tyler Herro? (March 10)

With March Madness upon us, basketball betting just got a lot crazier. Bettors looking to find the best NBA or college basketball player props can easily get overwhelmed with the onslaught of on-court action. Even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers. The below Tyler Herro player prop stands out as especially easy to miss.

Enter Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props for Friday.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 10

Kevin Love Prop O/U 0.5 Steals

The Miami Heat added Kevin Love from the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Cleveland’s former star big man has seen plenty of action so far. However, bettors shouldn’t expect him to contribute much in the steal column tonight, especially not against his former team.

NBA Bet Pro projects Love for 0.3 steals tonight, which slots in under this total and gives this play an expected win rate of 70% — slightly better than its implied odds of 67.2% available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Only four other plays on today’s board have more EV, and to find them, subscribe to NBA Bet Pro!

Best NBA Player Prop: Kevin Love Under 0.5 Steals (-205) at DraftKings

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Tyler Herro Prop O/U 4.5 Assists

The model’s projections are all over another Heat player: Tyler Herro. Although Herro has a sizeable role to play in Miami, he hasn’t contributed a ton of assists this year, and he shouldn’t do so tonight. Herro is averaging only 4.4 assists per game and 4.1 since the All-Star Break.

Herro is projected for only 3.8 assists tonight, which makes sense, as the Cleveland Cavaliers play at an incredibly slow pace and are a tough defensive opponent. Yet bettors can buy the under for this NBA player prop at -120 (54.5%) at PointsBet — below the under’s expected win percentage of 57%. Readers who are yet to register at PointsBet can score five second-chance bets worth up to $50 apiece!

Best NBA Player Prop: Tyler Herro Under 4.5 Assists (-120) at PointsBet

Jakob Poeltl Prop O/U 1.5 Blocks

The Toronto Raptors added Jakob Poeltl at the trade deadline, and he has the unenviable task of defending Anthony Davis tonight. However, the Los Angeles Lakers have gotten blocked plenty of times this year, and Poeltl could have a solid game as a defender against their offense that’s missing LeBron James.

Poeltl should swat 1.5 shots tonight, per NBA Bet Pro, so getting the over all the way up at +180 (35.7%) has a load of value. The expected win rate for the over is actually 37%, so bettors can head to BetMGM to buy the over and get a slight edge on the market. Readers who are new to BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance from the book.

Best NBA Player Prop: Jakob Poeltl Over 1.5 Blocks (+180) at BetMGM

Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.