NBA DFS Optimizer Lineup Picks Today for DraftKings & FanDuel

Friday’s nine-game slate of NBA DFS action looks loaded with opportunity and upside. The schedule is loaded with games that project to be closely contested, as well as a few with reasonably high game totals. With scoring down, getting to shares of games totaled into the high 220s has been somewhat rate early this season, but the contest between the Hornets and Kings at the end of the night is slated to be a shootout. With nine games to choose from for NBA DFS today, quality plays abound from every pricing tier. Building in a steady rotation of positively leveraged players, some good chalk and covering a broad range of outcomes with high-value players in the remaining spots is the strategy tonight.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With nine games on the slate, this will be a broad look at the best overall plays of the night. As always, the goal is to find under-appreciated players for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS NBA projections and simulations.

Adam Scherer’s NBA Deep Dive article is the most in-depth daily fantasy basketball article in the industry, where he breaks down all of the best plays for cash games and tournaments on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

NBA DFS Optimizer Leverage Leaders Today

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Check out Alex Hunter’s Boom/Bust Tool article, where he breaks down some of the top boom and bust candidates from Awesemo’s expert projections. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and bad chalk and shaky investments will be discussed in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Eric Bledsoe: DraftKings — $4,200 — PG/SG | FanDuel — $4,600 — SG/PG

After Eric Bledsoe disappointed NBA DFS owners with a 0.80 fantasy point per minute rate across all situations last season, he has bounced back to a 0.91 per-minute rate through the first seven games of this season. Bledsoe has averaged 26.3 minutes and 20.6% usage so far this season, and he is carrying a 24.2% assist rate. His true shooting percentage is just 42.9% while his career mark is 55.4%, so there is significant room for improvement in his scoring rates. Bledsoe is significantly discounted for his overall quality, and he has multi-position eligibility on both sites, giving him significant flexibility when rotating quality pieces on a fairly large slate. He has major upside for his price and the public is trailing by a wide margin in afternoon projections.

On the DraftKings slate, the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulations includes Bledsoe 16.7% of the time. That makes him the fourth-highest-ranked player at any position on tonight’s slate, second among shooting guards, and third among point guards. Bledsoe is a strong value play at his cheap price and flexibility between both guard spots. He has a 25.6-point median projection and an excellent 30.7% boom score probability that also lands fourth overall, but Bledsoe jumps to first among eligible shooting guards in this category. With only 10.9% of the DraftKings public projected to include Bledsoe in lineups tonight, he comes in with an excellent leverage score of 5.8, placing him sixth overall on the site and second among players at either guard position. Bledsoe should be rostered well beyond the currently projected public popularity.

He is a similar play on the FanDuel slate, where he also plays both guard positions. Bledsoe lands in the optimal lineup 15% of the time, though that rate ranks him 16th on the blue site. He has a 25.9-point FanDuel projection and a 25.9% boom score probability that ranks 11th overall on the site. Bledsoe is the sixth-highest-ranked guard in the boom score category. The field is projected to get to him just 4.4% of the time, which makes him a top-notch play based on a 10.6 leverage score that is the second-best mark on the slate. It requires minimal effort to at least double the field’s projected ownership, and extending beyond that is entirely viable as well. Bledsoe is a top value play on both sites as of the mid-afternoon.

Giannis Antetokounmpo: DraftKings — $11,800 — PF/C | FanDuel — $11,300 — PF/SF

Despite what is rapidly becoming an astronomical price tag, Giannis Antetokounmpo comes in as one of the leading options on the Friday NBA DFS slate. Giannis is the go-to pay-up option on the board, despite the availability of a number of other superstars. It is easy enough to include him in lineups alongside fellow stars or several mid-range players as well, given the sheer amount of value available on this slate. Antetokounmpo is averaging a titanic 1.76 fantasy points per minute through the first eight games of his season. He sees 31.4 minutes a night with a 33.4% usage rate, and he has a 34.9% assist percentage and 15.6% rebounding percentage. Easily one of the top few players in the league, Giannis is the top pay-up option on both sites tonight.

On FanDuel, Antetokounmpo is the slate’s most expensive player by a margin of $500. Despite the hefty price tag, he still leads all players on the site by the frequency with which we find him optimal in simulations. The Bucks’ MVP lands in the top lineup in 35.3% of simulated slates, while filling out both forward positions. He is projected for a 58.6-point median FanDuel score and he ranks second overall on the slate with a 42.5% boom score probability. Absurdly, Antetokounmpo both underpriced and under-owned. The public is getting to him, but only at a 31.4% clip that leaves him with a healthy 3.9 leverage score. Getting to additional shares of one of the best players in the world seems like a reasonable proposition on the blue site tonight.

It should be no surprise that Antetokounmpo stands out despite an even higher price across town on DraftKings. He gains value on the site for his eligibility at both center and power forward, giving him strong flexibility to combine with several other premium plays. Antetokounmpo lands in the optimal lineup in 24.2% of simulated slates, the second-highest mark on the board, behind only Patrick Beverley, a value play from the $4,000 tier. With his superstar abilities, Giannis is the pay-up play of the day on this site. He has a 60.3-point median projection with a 36.7% boom score probability that also sits second to Beverley. Antetokounmpo will be rostered by just 20.1% of the field on the DraftKings slate, trailing his optimal lineup rate and creating a targetable leverage bubble at a 4.1 score. Clicking on one of the longest names on the board a few additional times is a sharp move on this site as well.

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Patrick Beverley: DraftKings — $4,000 — PG | FanDuel — $5,000 — PG

No, not because of the “revenge” factor. The simple reason that Beverley stands out on the board tonight is that he will see significant minutes once again, with D’Angelo Russell nursing an ankle injury. Beverley comes at a severe discount on the DraftKings slate, and he is a strong play even for $1,000 more on FanDuel. With Russell missing the team’s most recent game, Beverley saw his minutes jump from the low 20s to 31.2. He posted an excellent game, narrowly missing a triple-double with 10 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists. For the season, and in time without Russell, Beverley has produced a steady 1.12 fantasy points per minute. He is looking like an excellent play on a relatively low 28-minute projection that it is easy to see him exceeding by several minutes. Beverley has a 66.6% true shooting percentage and a 32.2% assist percentage in his five games this season. And while numbers matter more in this space, Beverley is a motivated player facing his former team while controlling the flow of the game and the distribution of the ball in his offense.

Beverley is the top play by a wide margin for just $4,000 on the DraftKings slate. He has a 33.1% optimal lineup appearance rate that ranks first, outpacing Antetokounmpo by nearly nine percentage points in the category. He has a 28.7-point raw projection and a 51.3% boom score probability that also leads the slate. That mark is ahead of the curve by 15 percentage points, Beverley is a tremendous value at this price. He will be rostered at around a 33% rate, but that simply makes him good chalk on this slate. Beverley is easily considered a foundational piece for lineup constructions of all shapes and sizes this evening.

Beverley is more expensive on the FanDuel slate, coming in at a $5,000 price and landing only at the point guard spot. He still has plenty of value and a path to scoring upside on the site, however, and he should be included in lineup considerations. He ranks 10th overall with a 16.8% optimal lineup appearance rate. That ranks him third in the category among eligible point guards, with both players ahead of him possessing eligibility at shooting guard as well. Beverley is projected for a 28.7 point night on the blue site, and he has a 31.7% boom score probability that ranks sixth overall and second among eligible point guards. The public is trailing with just 16.8% projected ownership, which leaves one of the slate’s stronger value plays with an excellent 6.4 leverage score. Even if the gap closes as lock approaches, Beverley remains a good play on both sites tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.