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NBA DFS Building Blocks

NBA DFS Picks and Fantasy Basketball Building Blocks for Today

Eric MacPherson



NBA DFS Building Blocks: Devin Booker is a Core Option

Friday, November 11 wraps up the work week with an injury-laden eight-game featured slate beginning at 7:00 p.m. ET on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s look at the player pool to discuss the top NBA DFS picks today for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups. As always, you can head over to the Stokastic NBA DFS & Fantasy Basketball home page for all the fantasy basketball content you need for any given slate. Now we shall dive into our NBA DFS Building Blocks.

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NBA DFS Building Blocks Today: Friday, November 11

Core Play of the Day — Anthony Davis: Los Angeles Lakers-Sacramento Kings

  • Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 51.23 | FanDuel: 51.87
  • Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 9.8% | FanDuel: 21.7%
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $10,200

LeBron James (adductor) has been ruled out through the weekend and has been looking closer to his actual age this season, though still flashing plenty of amazing moments. Los Angeles has only two wins this season and they are currently in the midst of a four-game losing streak.

Anthony Davis should be able to log more minutes at his preferred power forward position with James on the sidelines. All the extra pounding Davis takes while playing center minutes does add up, and takes a toll on his stamina and health. Several good articles have covered this and made great comparisons to players like Tim Duncan, Draymond Green and others, detailing how these talented BIGs would move to the center role in crunch time rather than man the pivot for most of the game.

Since the beginning of last year, when James is on the court Davis averages 1.2 fantasy points per minute. When James is off the court, Davis sees his efficiency surge and is averaging just over 1.4 fantasy points per minute. Russell Westbrook has averaged nearly 1.5 fantasy points per minute in 82 minutes alongside Davis, with James on the bench. This is a great matchup for Westbrook and he at least has been effective from a fantasy perspective now that he is coming off the bench and can dominate the ball when the other Los Angeles stalwarts are off the floor.

Sacramento eschews defense while playing at an above-average pace. They are allowing 113.1 points per 100 possessions which is the fifth-worst rate in the league. If Lonnie Walker IV (illness) misses a third consecutive game, Troy Brown, Kendrick Nunn and Patrick Beverley should be on the shortlist of main-slate discounts. If Walker plays, then this trio is more neutral on the main slate, but still looks good on the late slate. Malik Monk and Trey Lyles have been getting more run over the last week with their new squad and we can look to them tonight on all slates as discount dandies against the Lakers.

Stephen Curry: Golden State Warriors-Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Stokastic’s Preliminary Point Projections: DraftKings: 49.86 | FanDuel: 46.88
  • Stokastic’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: DraftKings: 4.1% | FanDuel: 4.1%
  • DFS Salary: DraftKings: $10,300 | FanDuel: $10,400

Tonight it looks like Stephen Curry is going to be overlooked and whenever he is available at or below the 5%-to-7% popularity range, he should be on our radar. Cleveland has been above average on defense, though most of their effectiveness is inside the paint. That should not impact Curry much, if at all, and this matchup boasts a 232.5 projected point total with the Warriors favored by a bucket at home.

Through 10 games, Curry is averaging 35.1 minutes, which is the most court time he has seen since the 2013-2014 season. He also is averaging a career-best 53 fantasy points per game, with a 51.2% conversion rate on 21.1 field goal attempts per game. Though his 7.1 rebounds per game are likely to slide back to something in the low fives, he is someone we can target with confidence on Friday.

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Additional NBA DFS Picks Today – Sports Wagering Opportunities

Devin Vassell is someone who is worth keeping tabs on with his 3.5 over/under rebound prop for his matchup against the Bucks. The Stokastic NBA player projections have him for 5.2 rebounds, which works out to a 76% win rate. Vassel is averaging 4.0 rebounds per game this season and he was at 4.3 last year.

Looking at his combined per-36 minutes rate over the last two seasons, he is at 5.6 and should see north of 30 minutes tonight. Though there is heavy “juice” with a -145 on this attainable milestone, we can use this as part of a straight or same-game parlay to increase the payout upside.

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Milwaukee Bucks-San Antonio Spurs

Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee) is out tonight, though if this were a meaningful game, he would be suiting up. Jrue Holiday (ankle) is going to miss a second consecutive game and he may be out through the weekend. Khris Middleton (wrist) is getting close to a return, but there is no need for the 10-1 Bucks to rush him back before he is ready. Finally, Pat Connaughton (calf) is likely to miss the next couple of games, so the Milwaukee rotation is rather thin with NBA-caliber talent.

Bobby Portis was a little disappointing in the last game against Oklahoma City, but do not let that dissuade you from rolling with him in the majority of your lineups tonight. San Antonio is playing at the fifth fastest pace in the league and they are allowing 114.5 points per 100 possessions, which is the second-worst defensive efficiency rating over the last 10 games. The Spurs are also in the bottom 10 from a rebounding perspective, which bodes well for both Portis and Brook Lopez to record double-doubles tonight.

Grayson Allen and Jevon Carter are both excellent point-per-dollar options on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Journeyman George Hill and rookie Marjon Beauchamp are also in the mix, though both are neutral options on the main slate.

Other than Zach Collins, everyone is healthy for the Spurs tonight. The main focus should be on Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl. Poeltl is tougher to get to as a center-only player since we have a plethora of options at that position.

The secondary selections from the Spurs are more site-dependent, though Tre Johnes, Josh Richardson and Charles Bassey are worth a look on DraftKings and to a lesser extent, FanDuel.

Toronto Raptors-Oklahoma City Thunder

Precious Achiuwa (ankle) is joining Pascal Siakam (adductor) on the sideline with both likely out for at least the next two weeks. Khem Birch (knee) is unlikely to play and that further thins out the frontcourt. Chris Boucher somehow finds a way to disappoint, even when he should be in a favorable matchup, but we can go back to the well once again tonight.

Christian Koloko is a lottery ticket, who has more than a dozen fantasy points only once in his last five games and that was a near-40 fantasy point outburst buoyed by half a dozen blocks. In the other four games during this span, he has four blocks and zero steals. This is a risky way to fill one of our limited center slots. Caveat Emptor!

Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes and OG Anunoby are core plays across the DFS world tonight in all formats. Gary Trent Jr. is a tick behind, but he should see around 15 field goal attempts and has the green light from beyond the arc. Let other gamers play Otto Porter Jr., who is unlikely to play more than 24 minutes, despite a playing time trend that some will think portends something surging towards “starters” minutes.

Darius Bazley (ankle) is likely to miss the next two games, which gives a boost to Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort and Aleksej Pokusevski to see between five to 10 extra minutes, with the latter two getting the biggest helping.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is someone to target as a top-five play tonight, particularly on DraftKings. The fifth-year guard is averaging a career-best 52 fantasy points per minute and he contributes across the box score. Wingman Josh Giddey is a neutral option, though he is in the mix if you are looking to do a mini-game stack for extra potential synergy in this matchup.

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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks Today

Most of the news should be out by the time we see the first games tip off tonight, though in the NBA the only certainty is uncertainty when it comes to late-breaking information. It is a savvy move to follow the Stokastic NBA Twitter handle and let them do the heavy lifting. Plus, if you are a premium member, be sure to check out the Stokastic Discord for all up-to-the-minute analyses.

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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