High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Fade Jayson Tatum Against Jimmy Butler

Friday features a large 11-game slate with 10 players priced over $10,000 on DraftKings. Choosing the best stud on the slate is going to be critical to finding the optimal lineup. With 22 teams playing tonight, be sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the large slate, starting with 76ers Joel Embiid and a surprise fade in Jayson Tatum.

Bet $5 on the NBA tonight and get $150 if your first pregame moneyline wager wins!

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NBA DFS Boom: Joel Embiid: $11,300 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel

43.9% DraftKings Boom/40.3% FanDuel Boom

There are 10 players on DraftKings that have a salary above $10,000 on tonight’s slate. The one player who stands out above them all in Stokastic’s tools is 76ers center Joel Embiid. He has the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel despite seeing a major rise in his salary. With James Harden targeting a return to action on Monday, this may be the last game for awhile that Embiid gets to hog all of the usage playing without Harden and Tyrese Maxey. In Stokastic’s projections, Embiid has the highest fantasy score on FanDuel and second highest on DraftKings.

No need to game log watch with Embiid as he only played 29 minutes in his last game due to the 76ers getting blown out by the Cavaliers. He has shown 100 DraftKings point upside just five games ago, providing us with a lot of boom potential in this matchup. The 76ers are five-point road underdogs against the Grizzlies who rank 19th in defensive rating entering tonight’s games. This game total is the second lowest on the slate at 218 points, but that is due to how slow the 76ers play with Embiid as the focal point. Pay up for Embiid who will get fed early and often in this spot.


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NBA DFS Boom: Evan Mobley: $7,000 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel

33.5% DraftKings Boom/31.5% FanDuel Boom

The Cleveland Cavaliers have won six of their last eight games as they get a cupcake matchup at home against the Magic tonight. Jarrett Allen will miss a fourth consecutive game, while Kevin Love is listed as doubtful. Over the last three games without Allen in the lineup, Evan Mobley has averaged a double-double with 18 points and 12 rebounds per game while shooting 63.9% from the field. He has posted 39.3 DraftKings points per game during that time and has averaged 17 rebound chances per game. Mobley has the fifth highest boom percentage on both sites tonight and needs to be prioritized.

Despite their injuries, the Cavaliers are still double-digit home favorites. The Magic have lost six straight games as they hold the worst record in the league this season. They rank 27th in defensive rating and have allowed 60 points per game in the paint over their last three games. With Wendall Carter Jr. out and Bol Bol questionable to play, the Magic frontcourt could be in trouble guarding Mobley tonight. According to Stokastic’s projections, Mobley is the best mid-range play on the slate. Similar to Embiid, Mobley isn’t popping too much in Stokastic’s ownership projections making him a great leverage play.

NBA DFS Boom: Jalen McDaniels: $4,800 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel

26.7% DraftKings Boom/33.1% FanDuel Boom

Value is a little tough to come by on this slate right now, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s Lineups page to see if anything pops up on this large slate. Currently Jalen McDaniels is one of the best values, especially on FanDuel. He has the third highest boom percentage on FanDuel and is $300 cheaper than his DraftKings price tag. McDaniels needs to be prioritized on FanDuel where he has by far the highest value on the slate in Stokastic’s projections. He is coming off of his best game of the season where he posted 24 points while shooting 9 of 12 from the field.

The Hornets have been dealing with a ton of injuries lately. LaMelo Ball, Dennis Smith Jr., and Gordon Hayward are all out tonight as their implied total sits barely above 110. They are 3.5-point home underdogs against the Wizards who they just lost to by four points less than a week ago. The Wizards rank middle of the pack defensively and on the glass so this is a neutral matchup. With playing 30 and 31 minutes in his last two starts, McDaniels is going to be tough to avoid at this cheap salary. Get exposure to McDaniels specifically on FanDuel where he is a great salary saver.

Bet $5 on the NBA tonight and get $150 if your first pregame moneyline wager wins!

NBA DFS Bust: Jayson Tatum: $10,900 DraftKings/$10,800 FanDuel

42.0% DraftKings Bust/48.8% FanDuel Bust

Winners of four straight games, the Boston Celtics have the best record in the league at 18-4. They are 11-1 at home as they will face the Heat for the second consecutive game. Jayson Tatum is leading this team with a career-high 31.6 points per game and is coming off of a season-high 39 points against the Heat two days ago. The concern with Tatum tonight is the Heat’s best defender, Jimmy Butler, is back in the lineup after missing seven straight games. The Celtics are still eight-point home favorites, but Tatum has the highest bust percentage among all of the elite options on both sites tonight.

Tatum looks much worse on FanDuel compared to DraftKings. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings, Tatum is the only player on the slate with an A grade and C value on FanDuel. Even when looking at Stokastic’s projections, Tatum is clearly the worst value among the top pay-up options. With Jaylen Brown healthy and Butler back in the Heat lineup, Tatum is a perfect fade candidate especially given his rising salary. The Heat play at the fifth-slowest pace in the league this season and have a top 10 defensive rating with Butler healthy. There are plenty of better ways to spend your salary.

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