High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, Jakob Poeltl (October 21)

Back to another large 11-game slate tonight after two short slates already in the books. We haven’t hit my favorite sweet spot of 5-8 games yet, but this will do. Plenty of great options to choose from on this main slate, so let’s get right into the action. This article will do just that as it features three boom candidates at each pricing tier and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of our best NBA DFS Picks for the big slate including Jayson Tatum, Jakob Poeltl and more.

Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Today Boom: Jayson Tatum: $8,800 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel

45.1% DraftKings Boom/14.5% FanDuel Boom

Playing on the road against the Miami Heat can be a tough spot, but why in the world is Jayson Tatum $8,800 on DraftKings tonight? After putting up 61 DraftKings points on 35 points and 12 rebounds, Tatum saw a $200 decrease in his salary. Sure, opening night was a two-game slate and there are more options tonight, but wow that price decrease doesn’t make any sense. Jayson Tatum had a 32.1% usage rate while playing 39 minutes against the 76ers who ranked 26th in pace last season. He has the second-highest boom and optimal percentage on DraftKings at this egregious salary.

The fade on FanDuel is understandable at a $10,400 price tag and a 14.5% boom percentage. This matchup against the Heat will be tough as they ranked fourth in defensive rating last season and played at the third-slowest pace, but that isn’t making Tatum a bad play. Tatum has averaged 22.3 points per game in his last seven games against the Heat scoring over 20 points in all but one of those games. Without P.J. Tucker, this Heat defense doesn’t look nearly as good on paper as it did last season. Prioritize Tatum on DraftKings where his salary is simply broken.

NBA DFS Today Boom: Jakob Poeltl: $6,200 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel

Bet $10, win $200 if the 76ers hit a three

45.4% DraftKings Boom/38.3% FanDuel Boom

Leading the way in our boom/bust tool with the top boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel is Spurs center Jakob Poeltl. The Spurs were dominated at home against the Hornets in their first game as Poeltl posted a near double-double with 14 points and nine rebounds in 27 minutes. After posting career-high’s in both points and rebounds last season, Jakob Poeltl is poised for a breakout season with a Spurs team that is in rebuilding mode. Even at 27-years old Poeltl is a veteran and will likely average near 30 minutes per game in competitive matchups. Unfortunately the Spurs won’t be all that competitive this year.

Despite playing on the road the Spurs are only 2.5-point underdogs with a 115-implied point total. This game total is tied for the highest on the slate at 232.5 points as both of these young teams will likely play quick all season long. The Spurs were sixth in pace last season and even though they lost Dejounte Murray this off-season, they return everyone else with Tre Jones starting at point guard who also likes to push the tempo. The opportunities for Poeltl will be plentiful with the Pacers being without center Myles Turner. They gave up 58 points in the paint in their first game.

NBA DFS Today Boom: Bruno Fernando: $4,400 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel

32.7% DraftKings Boom/35.2% FanDuel Boom

There are five players on FanDuel priced between $3,900 and $4,800 who rank in the Top 8 of boom percentage for tonight’s slate. The best option is taking a value player from the Rockets and Grizzlies game that has a slate-high 232.5 implied total. Bruno Fernando and Jabari Smith Jr. are the top options for value on the Rockets side so it is honestly a take your pick spot as both rate out extremely well on FanDuel. We’ll take Fernando here as he grades out better on DraftKings. Starting for the Rockets in their first game, Fernando had seven points, nine rebounds, and seven assists in 25 minutes. He made all three of his field goal attempts as the big man looked very comfortable in this Rockets offense.

It is hard to expect much action from a volume perspective from Fernando as he had a 6.2% usage rate in their first game. In this offense the field goal attempts will be going to Smith Jr., Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green a majority of the time. Fernando had eight potential assists and a 25 rebound chances, which ranked second in the entire league. If Fernando is going to continue to start and get the minutes, his salary is going to increase rapidly. Take a chance on him now at this low price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Today Bust: Stephen Curry: $10,000 DraftKings/$10,700 FanDuel

62.0% DraftKings Bust/80.1% FanDuel Bust

Back to the Stephen Curry fade we go. These bust percentage numbers are staggering, especially on FanDuel at 80.1%. Being in the optimal lineup on FanDuel at 1.7% is incredibly low for a player like Curry. It all comes down to his very expensive salary reaching five figures on both sites. It will get hard to keep recommending a Curry fade if he is going to post 33 points, seven assists, and six rebounds every night. Curry was fantastic in the season-opener, but a lot of that has to do with how poor the Lakers are going to be defensively yet again. Much different matchup against the Nuggets tonight.

When Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson shoot poorly together like they did in the Warriors first game, a Curry explosion is certainly on the table. The Warriors are 4.5-point home favorites, but this Nuggets team plays much slower than the Warriors and will look to bounce back after losing by 21 points to the Jazz. Curry is the only player on the slate that has an A grade and a D value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA DFS Rankings. He can’t keep getting away with these boom games! Fade Curry yet again on this 11-game main slate for NBA DFS picks.

Tyler Schmidt

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