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High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid Worth Spending Up For

Tyler Schmidt



High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid Worth Spending Up For

Saturday features a small four-game slate with two early and two-night games. We likely won’t get much news on the night games before lock at 7pm ET, but follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page just in case we do to make sure who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features two boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing 76ers Joel Embiid and Shake Milton.

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NBA DFS Boom: Joel Embiid: $11,200 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel

60.8% DraftKings Boom/48.5% FanDuel Boom

After finding a way to reach value last night in large part due to a Tyrese Maxey injury, Joel Embiid is the top option once again on this four-game slate. In this back-to-back, Maxey will not play and Tobias Harris is listed as questionable after missing last game. James Harden also remains out, so Embiid will get all of the usage that he can handle. No one comes close to Embiid in salary or ceiling on either site tonight. In our Stokastic projections, Embiid is nearly 20 fantasy points higher than the next closest player. Get different elsewhere, Embiid is by far the best play on the slate.

The last time we saw Embiid play a back-to-back, he finished with over 100 DraftKings points. That is unlikely to happen against a frontcourt with Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, but with so many high usage players on the 76ers out tonight, this Timberwolves matchup is almost irrelevant. However, they do rank middle of the pack in defensive rating and fifth in pace this season. The 76ers are two-point home underdogs, despite winning three-straight games. Embiid has the second highest boom percentage on DraftKings and FanDuel and needs to be prioritized tonight.

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NBA DFS Boom: Shake Milton: $3,100 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel

66.6% DraftKings Boom/51.7% FanDuel Boom

Sticking with the 76ers, we will look to backup point guard Shake Milton. In his fifth season with the 76ers, Milton hasn’t had to do much playing being Harden and Maxey. However, with both out he will likely move into the starting lineup, which will easily make him the best value on the slate. This is a situation where DraftKings and FanDuel already had their salaries loaded for this slate last night before Maxey’s injury. Therefore Milton is priced near the stone minimum on both sites and has the highest boom percentage as he is coming off a season-high 31 minutes.

Our Stokastic projections have Milton playing 31.7 minutes tonight making him the best value on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is an impossible player to fade at this salary and pairing him with Embiid is necessary in all lineup builds. In his 31 minutes last night, Milton had a season-high 15 points on 6 of 12 from the field, six assists, three rebounds, and 28.75 DraftKings points. The Timberwolves are tied for the league-high in allowing the most 3-pointers made and highest percentage. If Harris is ruled out, there may be more 76ers worth targeting, but pair Embiid and Milton for now.

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NBA DFS Bust: Paul George: $9,800 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel

60.0% DraftKings Bust/64.0% FanDuel Bust

There is no word yet on Kawhi Leonard, but even if he doesn’t play it is very difficult to pay up for Paul George at this salary on both sites. Over the last four games, George has really struggled shooting 34.3% from the field and 31.8% from behind the arc. He is averaging 19.5 points and 37.1 DraftKings points per game during that time. George even had 10 turnovers two games ago. With being all out of sorts and Leonard coming back, it is not wise to pay up for George nearing $10,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel where he has a 60%+ bust percentage on both sites.

In our NBA DFS Rankings, George has an A grade and D value on DraftKings and a B grade and D value on FanDuel. One thing that is positive about George is this matchup against the Spurs where they are nearly double-digit favorites. The Clippers have a 115.75 implied point total as the Spurs rank last in defensive rating (117.5), entering tonight’s games.

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