High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Jusuf Nurkic to Lift Blazers Out of Slump

Tuesday features a very small three-game slate with limited top tier options. There isn’t much news yet to come out, but make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page if anything pops up. This article features two boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the small slate, starting with leading MVP candidate Luka Doncic.

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NBA DFS Boom: Luka Doncic: $12,600 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel

36.6% DraftKings Boom/41.4% FanDuel Boom

The headliner game of the night is this epic point guard matchup between Luka Doncic and Stephen Curry. These two studs are leading the league in scoring averaging over 31 points per game. Doncic gets the nod between the two when it comes to ceiling as he leads the Mavericks in points, rebounds, and assists for the third-straight season. Through 18 games, Doncic is averaging a career-high 33.1 points and 37.6% usage rate per game. He has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and by far the highest on FanDuel at 41.4%. No other player is within 10% of Doncic on FanDuel tonight.

The Warriors’ defense has taken a major hit so far this season. They rank 22nd in defensive rating, while also allowing 117.3 points per game, which ranks as the third highest in the league. This is also a major pace increase spot for Doncic as the Mavericks rank last in pace, while the Warriors rank second. Despite being the highest-priced player on the slate, Doncic is shooting a career-best 50.4% from the field and should feast in this matchup against the Warriors. He will be popular as one of the highest-owned players on both sites, but it is deserving. Find the value and play Doncic.

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NBA DFS Boom: Jusuf Nurkic: $7,200 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel

26.0% DraftKings Boom/29.9% FanDuel Boom

After a hot start, the Trail Blazers have lost five of their last six games as Damian Lillard remains without an update with his calf injury. That will open the door for much more usage for the rest of the Trail Blazers starters and specifically Jusuf Nurkic. Over the last four games, Nurkic is averaging 18.8 points and 9.5 rebounds per game while shooting 54.7% from the field. During that time Nurkic is also averaging 33 minutes per game, which is always important when discussing him. Stokastic’s projections have Nurkic for 30 minutes as he is the best value play on FanDuel tonight.

The Trail Blazers are 3.5-point home favorites against the Clippers who come in short-handed without their star players Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. The Clippers have the third-best defensive rating, but that will surely drop without their top two wing defenders. This game has the lowest total on the slate at 211.5 points as the Trail Blazers are 3.5-point home favorites implied for 107.5 points. Nurkic has the second highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. Prioritize him on FanDuel, but he is the best center on the slate for both sites.

Bet $5 on the NBA tonight and get $150 if your first pregame moneyline wager wins!

NBA DFS Bust: Killian Hayes: $6,300 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel

60.0% DraftKings Bust/84.4% FanDuel Bust

Fully fading a player on a three-game slate is not recommending, but Killian Hayes has by far the highest bust percentage among all of the relevant players. Cade Cunningham remains out while Jaden Ivey is listed as questionable. Sure, if Ivey sits that will give Hayes the keys to the castle, but his price on both sites has gotten way too high even on a small slate. At $7,600 on FanDuel, Hayes has a ridiculously high 84.4% bust percentage. Despite the massive increase in playing time, Hayes is still only shooting 33.9% from the field. He may rack up assists, but his salary is way too high.

The Pistons own the worst record in the league at 5-17 and are five-point home underdogs to the Knicks with an implied total of 110 points. This is an exploitable matchup for Hayes, but he has been extremely inefficient this season and it’s hard to see that changing in this spot tonight. On FanDuel, Hayes has a C grade and an E value in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings. He is a slightly better play on DraftKings and needs Ivey to be out to be relevant. Hayes is only playable on either side if Ivey is out, but if Ivey plays consider a full fade on Hayes despite this being a small three-game slate.

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Tyler Schmidt

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