High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, Jalen McDaniels Nov. 4

Tonight features a large 12-game NBA slate with a plethora of injury news. Make sure to monitor Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates at each pricing tier and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing Kevin Durant.

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NBA DFS Boom: Kevin Durant: $10,300 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Boom/41.9% FanDuel Boom

There are two high-priced players who rate out extremely well in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool for tonight’s 12-game slate. One is Joel Embiid — who is questionable — but if he plays will do so without James Harden — who is out for a month due to injury. The second is Kevin Durant, who will be playing without both Ben Simmons and Kyrie Irving. Durant is for sure playing tonight, but Embiid is a great option if he is able to play through his injury. Peak, high-usage Durant is finally back, and he will get his peripherals in this road matchup against the Wizards. This is a spot worth backing, as Durant has the second-highest boom percentage on FanDuel and fourth highest on DraftKings.

Durant has scored over 55 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, as his ceiling rises without Simmons on the floor. Now that Irving is also not playing, the sky is the limit for Durant in the near future.

His salary on both sites feels like a steal. The field is getting to Durant often, as he ranks in the top four of most-owned players in Stokastic’s most recent ownership run. Through eight games, the Nets have a 2-6 record and need to turn the ship around quick. It’ll all fall on Durant’s shoulders, who is averaging a career-high 32.5 points per game while shooting 52.8% from the field.

NBA DFS Boom: De’Anthony Melton: $4,400 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel

55.4% DraftKings Boom/27.0% FanDuel Boom

Based on Stokastic’s boom percentages on both sites, 76ers guard De’Anthony Melton is much preferred on DraftKings, where he has the second-highest boom percentage on the slate, trailing only Embiid. With Harden out tonight, Melton will move into the starting lineup once again. In the two games that Melton has started this season, he is playing 31.7 minutes while averaging 14.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 3.5 steals per game. He has a 19.9% usage rate and has scored over 30 DraftKings points per game. Melton is the best value on DraftKings in Stokastic’s projections.

Harden had a 29% usage rate while averaging a double-double with 22 points and 10 assists per game. Without Harden for a whole month, the salaries on these 76ers role players like Melton will rise like crazy. Now is the time to get to Melton, especially on DraftKings at only $4,400. In Stokastic’s last ownership run, Melton is second behind Stokastic’s next value play on DraftKings. If he is going to play 30-plus minutes and produce like he is, Melton is a great salary saver on a slate where there is plenty to pay up for. Lock in Melton even if Embiid is playing tonight.

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NBA DFS Boom: Jalen McDaniels: $4,500 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel

58.3% DraftKings Boom/39.1% FanDuel Boom

This article could have easily featured both Embiid and Durant thanks to another cheaper option in Hornets forward Jalen McDaniels. He has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the fourth highest on FanDuel. Stokastic’s projections have McDaniels as a very strong value play, as he is projected to play 31.6 minutes due to the Hornets dealing with a ton of injuries. LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges are out, while Terry Rozier and Cody Martin are listed as doubtful. McDaniels will get plenty of playing time tonight.

McDaniels has played really well with his increased role this season, averaging career highs in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks. With him playing more minutes, it has been impressive how McDaniels is shooting 50% from behind the arc and 91.7% from the free-throw line. The Hornets may be double-digit road underdogs against the Grizzlies, but this total is the second highest on the slate at 227.5 points. After being so good defensively last season, the Grizzlies rank 28th in defensive rating through eight games entering tonight. This is a great spot to roster a low-priced McDaniels.

Bet $5 on the NBA tonight and get $150 if your first pregame moneyline wager wins!

NBA DFS Bust: Luka Doncic: $12,400 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel

38.0% DraftKings Bust/41.7% FanDuel Bust

There are seven players on DraftKings and eight on FanDuel that have salaries of $10,000 or more. Given that, picking a player to fade is a little difficult because some look bad on FanDuel and good on DraftKings and vice versa — especially the Lakers studs. Make sure to look at the Boom/Bust Tool closer to lock to avoid the potential bust candidates.

Luka Doncic is the second-most expensive player on both sites, and this matchup against the Raptors has the lowest total on the slate at 216.5 points. Doncic is the only player priced in this tier who has a negative value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. This game will be extremely low scoring, as the Mavericks rank dead last in pace this season, while the Raptors rank 25th. The Raptors also are seventh in defensive rating and allow only 105.8 points per game.

Doncic may be leading the league in both usage rate and points per game, but this is a brutal matchup. With so many expensive stars in great spots playing without their wingmen, it is hard to get behind Doncic at this salary on both sites.

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