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High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Kevin Durant, Paul George

Tyler Schmidt



NBA DFS Leverage Picks, Optimizer Plays: Kevin Durant & Andre Drummond

Tuesday features a five-game NBA main slate with not a lot of injury news, unlike last night. Even if not much will populate, monitor our starting lineups page to make sure who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing Nets superstar Kevin Durant and fading Paul George.

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NBA DFS Boom: Kevin Durant: $11,200 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel

30.0% DraftKings Boom/24.4% FanDuel Boom

The boom percentage numbers are down throughout this entire five-game slate, but the best pay-up option on the slate is Nets superstar Durant. With Kyrie Irving still out and Ben Simmons questionable for tonight, while being limited if he even plays, Durant has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Durant is averaging over 30 points per game for the first time since the 2013-14 season while shooting over 50% from the field for the 10th straight year. He has the second-highest fantasy score in our Stokastic projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel while being much cheaper than Luka Doncic.

This TNT night game against the Kings has a 224-point total as the Nets are only two-point road underdogs. The Kings have the fifth-worst Defensive Rating (114.3) entering tonight’s game. They are allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 49.6% from the field and 38.0% from behind the arc. Expect Durant to be efficient and dominant tonight. Durant has the highest leverage score on FanDuel at 8.3%. He is outside the top seven in our first ownership run, making him a little bit of a contrarian pay-up option. If Simmons is ruled out, Durant will only look better on this slate.

NBA DFS Boom: Nic Claxton: $5,900 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel

37.9% DraftKings Boom/31.3% FanDuel Boom

Sticking with the Nets, Nic Claxton is the center to look at tonight since this is such a weak position on this slate. He was injured last game and did not return after only playing 16 minutes. Claxton was well on his way to another double-double as he has really taken this starting role and ran with it. Through 14 games, he is averaging a career-high 11.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while shooting a ridiculous 72.4% from the field. He has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel, making him one of the best value plays on the slate.

Another reason to target Claxton against the Kings is that they get dominated in the interior. They have allowed 55 points per game in the paint this season, which ranks tied for the second-most in the league. A big bonus to playing Claxton is also his block upside. He is averaging 2.1 blocks per game, which ranks second in the league. Our Stokastic projections have Claxton playing 29.4 minutes tonight, which would be more than enough time to pay off his salary. Prioritize Claxton on DraftKings where he has the highest value on the slate with tons of upside at his deflated salary due to a minor injury.

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NBA DFS Boom: Mike Conley: $5,600 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel

29.9% DraftKings Boom/26.4% FanDuel Boom

Who would have thought on a five-game slate the Utah Jazz would have the highest implied total? With a 10-5 record, the Jazz have the most wins in the Western Conference. They have yet to lose at home this season as they will take on the Knicks as 4.5-point favorites implied for 117.5 points. This is a great spot to target the Jazz as the Knicks rank 24th in defensive rating and eighth in pace so far this season. Targeting 35-year-old Mike Conley may not seem like the best approach, but he has the fourth-highest boom percentage on DraftKings and fifth-highest on FanDuel tonight.

Conley has taken a Chris Paul-like approach to this Jazz team where his scoring numbers are way down, but he is averaging a career-high 8.1 assists per game. He can still score the ball as he has averaged double digits for every year he has been in the league besides his rookie season. Being $5,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Conley certainly isn’t being overlooked. In our ownership projections, he is in the top four on both sites for this slate. Value is a little tough to come by on this small five-game slate, but Conley is one of the best in this fantastic game environment for the Jazz.

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NBA DFS Bust: Paul George: $10,400 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel

69.0% DraftKings Bust/58.5% FanDuel Bust

Being priced this high, George needs to put up a big game to return value. It has been rare that we have seen a ceiling game from George even though he has played several games already without Kawhi Leonard, which will continue to be the case tonight. This is also the second leg of a back-to-back where George had 22 points, eight rebounds and five assists last night in 29 minutes. He has three games all season where he scored over 50 DraftKings points. The rest are all very below average for George’s standards, which makes him one of the better fade candidates on this slate.

He has a very high bust percentage as the Clippers have a slate-low 102 implied point total playing against the slow and methodical Mavericks, who are playing at the league’s slowest pace for the second-straight season. Expect George to play around 35 minutes and attempt to go toe-to-toe with Luka Doncic. However at this salary, especially on DraftKings, it is very hard to prioritize George when Durant, Doncic, Ja Morant, and even Domantas Sabonis are on this slate. He is also shooting an abysmal 30.8% from the field and 23.1% from behind the arc in his last two games.

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