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High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Jordan

Tyler Schmidt



High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Michael Porter Jr., DeAndre Jordan

Wednesday’s 10-game slate could get very interesting if a specific top-tier player gets ruled out. For now, he is in, but make sure to monitor our starting lineups page to make sure who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s take a look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, prioritizing the Nuggets’ value while fading Giannis Antetokounmpo.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Boom: Jayson Tatum: $10,900 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel

26.7% DraftKings Boom/24.8% FanDuel Boom

The balanced lineup build seems to be the preferred option tonight, but the ascend of Jayson Tatum this season has been fun to watch and makes him one of the better pay-up options on the slate. Nikola Jokic is out, while Luka Doncic may sit on the second leg of a back-to-back. Tatum has averaged more points in each year since being in the league, now averaging a career-high 31.9 per game. He has back-to-back double-doubles as he continues to display his versatility. His leverage score is positive for both DraftKings and FanDuel as he is a great way to get different at the top tonight.

The 11-3 Celtics have won seven straight games while scoring 123.9 points per game during that run. They lead the league in points and rank second in field goal percentage with 48.4%. Their offensive rating (118.8) also leads the league by a wide margin. Tatum is the main contributor as he has shot a career-high 49.1% from the field and has a team-high 31.9% usage rate. The Hawks play at the seventh-fastest pace, which could mean even more looks for the red-hot Tatum. He has shot 20 or more field goal attempts in five-straight games, which boosts his ceiling considerably.

NBA DFS Boom: Michael Porter Jr.: $5,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Boom/36.1% FanDuel Boom

The first of two Nuggets value plays in this article is Michael Porter Jr. He sat out nearly all of last season with a back injury but is starting to play more and get his legs back under him. He is coming off of his best game of the season where he poured in 31 points while shooting 11-of-16 from the field and 6-of-9 from behind the arc. Porter Jr. had 42.25 DraftKings points while only playing a total of 24 minutes. He has the second-highest boom percentage on both sites as the Nuggets will be playing without Jokic while Aaron Gordon is questionable and Bones Hyland is doubtful.

With Jokic out, who leads the Nuggets in points, rebounds and assists, there is so much production to go around. If Gordon is out as well, that will increase the rebounding upside for Porter Jr. dramatically. He is second on the Nuggets in scoring behind Jokic with 18 points per game and is third behind Jokic and Gordon in rebounding. Porter Jr. is only averaging 29.1 minutes per game this season, but our Stokastic projections have him for 32.1 minutes tonight as he is the second-best value play on both sites. There is a lot to like about this Nuggets value, but specifically Porter Jr. tonight.

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NBA DFS Boom: DeAndre Jordan: $3,300 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel

60.9% DraftKings Boom/44.3% FanDuel Boom

Getting exposure to DeAndre Jordan on a 10-game slate comes with risk, but priced near the stone minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel, he will be very difficult to ignore. Jordan has by far the highest boom percentage on the slate for both sites. The 34-year-old veteran center is on his eighth team in the last six seasons. He is averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season and if he plays 23.3 minutes as our Stokastic projections have, he will easily pay off this very cheap price tag. It feels gross clicking that button, but Jordan is the best value play on the slate assuming he starts.

Jordan may only be averaging 5.5 points and 4.9 rebounds per game, but he is only playing 13.5 minutes a night. He is shooting a career-high 80.6% from the field. Over the last three games, the Knicks have allowed 53.3 points per game in the paint, which ranks as the seventh-most during that time. Prioritize Jordan on DraftKings where two centers can be played and the value is much tougher to find. In our first ownership run this morning, Jordan came in second behind Porter Jr. on DraftKings, but just outside the Top 10 on FanDuel. Like him or not, Jordan is a great value play tonight.

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NBA DFS Bust: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,600 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Bust/41.0% FanDuel Bust

Fading Antetokounmpo is always risky, but the last two games have not been that pretty. The Bucks have won by over 15 points in back-to-back games, as Antetokounmpo wasn’t needed and did not shoot the ball well at all. He averaged just 29 minutes and 26 points per game during that stretch. Khris Middleton remains out, but Jrue Holiday could return after missing the last three games due to an injury. Fading the Greek Freak doesn’t happen often, but among the elite options, Antetokounmpo has the worst value in our Stokastic projections, especially on DraftKings with his $12,600 salary.

This is a tough spot for Antetokounmpo, as the Cavaliers rank sixth in points allowed in the paint and lead the league in rebounding percentage this season. Jarrett Allen is out, which does help, but dominating the paint and rebounding is what Antetokounmpo does best. He has shot 40.5% from the field over the last two games, while the Cavaliers are allowing only 108.9 points per game. Antetokounmpo has one of the highest bust percentages we have seen in a while for him. It may be risky if value starts to open up even more and if Holiday gets ruled out, but for now, we’re on the fade Antetokounmpo train.

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