High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Among Best Plays

Saturday features a very small slate with only three games on the main slate starting at 8pm ET. All three games have a game total of over 230 points, so this should be an electric slate. It will likely be a slower news day, but make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page in case anything out of the ordinary pops up. This article features two boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, starting with Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

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NBA DFS Boom: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $10,600 DraftKings/$10,600 FanDuel

23.5% DraftKings Boom/29.3% FanDuel Boom

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to get better and better each season that he is in the league. In his fifth season, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging a career-high 31 points per game, while shooting a ridiculous 51.2% from the field. He also is averaging career-high’s in assists, blocks, and steals while being the main reason the Thunder have any wins this season. In our Stokastic projections, Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest fantasy score despite being the third-most expensive player on FanDuel and second-most on DraftKings. He is the best pay-up option on this small three-game slate.

Priced at $10,600 on both sites, Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-highest boom percentage on FanDuel and fifth-highest on DraftKings tonight. The Thunder are 2.5-point road favorites against the Rockets as this game total is the highest on the slate at 231.5 points. After ranking dead last in defensive rating last season, the Rockets rank 28th this season allowing 116.3 points per game. In our first ownership run, Gilgegous-Alexander was the top pay-up option. Avoid the Lakers stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and instead go with the Thunder point guard in this fantastic matchup.

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NBA DFS Boom: Keldon Johnson: $6,800 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel

28.2% DraftKings Boom/29.3% FanDuel Boom

After a decent start to the season, the Spurs have dropped seven-straight as they will play the Lakers for consecutive days after losing last night 105-94. It has been a roller coaster of a season for fourth-year pro Keldon Johnson as he is averaging a career-high 20.1 points per game, but shooting just 40.8% from the field and 36.7% from behind the arc. He is the perfect boom/bust candidate as Johnson can play upwards of 40 minutes or mid-teens depending on how he is playing that night. Last night against the Lakers, Johnson shot a season-high 23 field goal attempts while only making six. However, he finished with a near double-double as he had 15 points and nine rebounds.

Johnson comes into tonight with the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the second-highest on FanDuel. In our Stokastic projections, Johnson also has the highest value on FanDuel where he is priced at a cheap $6,100 salary. Playing against the Lakers is one of the best matchups this season as they lead the league in pace (103.25), entering tonight’s games. They have been solid defensively, but playing that fast will give Johnson plenty of opportunities to exceed value tonight. He may be inconsistent, but his salary is way too cheap across the industry for a potential ceiling outcome.

NBA DFS Bust: Russell Westbrook: $8,300 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel

72.0% DraftKings Bust/54.4% FanDuel Bust

This Russell Westbrook fade comes down to a rising salary and LeBron James finally being healthy after missing five-straight games. Through six games playing alongside James this season, Westbrook is averaging two points and nearly three assists per game less than without James on the court. His usage rate drops from 30% to 26.4% and his DraftKings scoring from 37.3 to 33.9 per game. Westbrook has one of the highest bust percentages on the slate as James and the Lakers are finally healthy. This is a great matchup against the Spurs, but it is tough to pay this Westbrook salary.

There are some great guard options on this slate, despite being only able to choose from six teams. In our Stokastic projections, Westbrook looks awful from a value perspective, especially on DraftKings. He is the only player that has a B Grade and an E Value in our NBA DFS Rankings on DraftKings tonight. Being only point guard eligible on FanDuel also makes him tough to prioritize even though he will likely be coming off the bench leading the second unit. As long as James and Davis both play on the back-to-back tonight, getting exposure to Westbrook is less than ideal.

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