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High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Still Worth the Pay-Up Despite Salary Increase

Tyler Schmidt



High-Upside NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Still Worth Pay-Up

Starting off this Thanksgiving week is an eight-game NBA slate that features a few stars in great matchups. Per usual, monitoring the news will be critical for tonight’s slate. Follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the big slate, starting with Thunder point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

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NBA DFS Boom: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $10,000 DraftKings/$10,500 FanDuel

37.3% DraftKings Boom/28.9% FanDuel Boom

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has seen a rising salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he is the top pay-up option on both sites in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool. The Thunder will be playing without Tre Mann, Aleksej Pokusevski and Darius Bazley tonight in a home matchup against the Knicks. Gilgeous-Alexander is fourth in the league in scoring, averaging a career-high 31.3 points per game. He is shooting an absurd 53.4% from the field and 40.9% from behind the arc, and he has a 32.4% usage rate. There is plenty to like about Gilgeous-Alexander as the Thunder are 2.5-point favorites tonight.

Gilgeous-Alexander has the second-highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the fourth highest on DraftKings. In Stokastic’s , he also ranks third on DraftKings in highest projection and second-highest FanDuel despite being much cheaper than his peers. This matchup against the Knicks has a 230.5-point total, which is the second highest on the slate. Teammate Josh Giddey is also rating out very well in Stokastic’s tools. It may make sense to play both Thunder guards together with the high total, but prioritize Gilgeous-Alexander as the best pay-up option on the slate.

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NBA DFS Boom: Jarrett Allen: $6,700 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel

37.8% DraftKings Boom/32.6% FanDuel Boom

For the second straight year on the Cavaliers, center Jarrett Allen is averaging a double-double, with 14.0 points and 11.1 rebounds per game. He is shooting a career-low 57.4% from the field but is also averaging 10.1 field goal attempts per game, which is a career high. Allen has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the third highest on FanDuel at a center position that is loaded in the mid-range. The Cavaliers will likely be playing without Kevin Love and Caris LeVert, who are both questionable with injuries, paving the way for a bit more Allen usage.

On FanDuel, Allen’s block upside is magnified and he looks like one of the better values in Stokastic’s . The Cavaliers have won back-to-back home games after losing five straight games. Playing against the Hawks has been a profitable matchup for opposing centers. They are allowing 52.8 points per game in the paint this season, which is the sixth highest in the league. The Hawks also have allowed 6.1 blocks per game, which is tied for the fifth highest, and since Atlanta is an average rebounding team, a double-double with block upside is firmly in play for Allen tonight.

NBA DFS Boom: Collin Sexton: $4,400 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel

34.7% DraftKings Boom/20.7% FanDuel Boom

With point guard Mike Conley out for the Jazz, it is a good idea to get exposure to this team despite the road matchup against the Clippers. The Jazz are still leading the Western Conference with a record of 12-6. They have already beaten the Clippers on the road once this season and will press their luck in that same matchup tonight. The Clippers have the second-best defensive rating in the league, and they are allowing only 105.4 points per game. With Kawhi Leonard back, their defense looks that much better, but this is still a spot to exploit.

Despite the Clippers looking great on defense this season, the Jazz are averaging 117.6 points per game, which is tied for third. They rank top 10 in pace and love to push the tempo. Jordan Clarkson and Jarred Vanderbilt look solid in Stokastic’s tools, but combo guard Collin Sexton is the best route to take. Sexton is one of the better values on the slate in Stokastic’s . He had 22 points in their last meeting against the Clippers and will benefit without Conley on the floor. In his only game without Conley this season, Sexton played 31.9 minutes and had 19 points on 58.3% shooting from the field. He projects for 29.6 minutes tonight.

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NBA DFS Bust: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,400 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel

52.0% DraftKings Bust/40.4% FanDuel Bust

Once again, the Giannis Antetokounmpo fade train is worth riding. Over the last four games, he is averaging 44.2 DraftKings points per game, which will not get it done at a $12,400 salary. He has one of the highest bust percentages on DraftKings among the high-priced players, as he has really struggled lately. For a player who has shot over 50% from the field in seven straight seasons, it is wild to see that he hasn’t been close to shooting 50% in six straight games. During that time, he is shooting 41.8% from the field and 15.8% from behind the arc, making 3 of 19 from distance.

Giannis still has the highest fantasy point projection in Stokastic’s , but his value number especially on DraftKings is staggering. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS rankings, Giannis and Paul George are the only two players on DraftKings that have an A grade and a D value. Feel free to add George to the fade list as well, with his 62% bust percentage. The Bucks still rank second in the Eastern Conference with a 11-4 record, and Jrue Holiday is back from injury. However, the way things are going, it is tough to pay these salaries on Giannis, especially on DraftKings.

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