The NBA season is coming up, and Underdog has posted an NBA Best Ball Contest with $100,000 in prizes. I am breaking down some of the top fantasy basketball players to draft in Best Ball. These are players I am willing to pick ahead of their current draft ADP.
Fantasy Basketball: NBA Best Ball Top Draft Targets, Sleepers & Value
Joel Embiid: Best Ball ADP 21.6
I like the moves the 76ers made in the offseason. Embiid and Ben Simmons are not the greatest fit playing with each other. In order for it to work, the All-Star duo needs shooting, which is exactly what they added. Bringing in a shooter like Seth Curry should do wonder for the floor spacing in the offense. Embiid was already a strong fantasy producer, so it’s a bit odd to see him getting selected at the end of the second round in most drafts. He averaged the 12th-most fantasy points of any player with at least 40 games played last season. With Al Horford leaving and Curry added to the roster, Embiid is in line for a bit more efficiency. When Horford was off the court last season, Embiid’s fantasy scoring went up by 0.07 fantasy points per minute.
Andre Drummond: Best Ball ADP 30.1
From a points format perspective, Drummond looked on pace to return first-round value in the early part of last season. After getting traded to the Cavaliers, his season started to come apart from a fantasy perspective. Drummond opted into his contract with Cleveland, so I can see why his stock plummeted entering this season. There is reason to think he will bounce back and produce more like his time in Detroit. The biggest issue for his fantasy production with the Cavaliers was inconsistent playing time. Drummond found himself sharing center minutes with Tristan Thompson. Thompson signed with the Celtics, which should leave Drummond to play the majority of the center minutes for Cleveland. This isn’t the same situation he was in after the trade deadline, even though he’s on the same team.
Jusuf Nurkic: Best Ball ADP 52.2
Nurkic returned from a devastating leg injury and showed no ill effects in the bubble. Not only did Nurkic not show signs of a decline, there is a case that he looked better than ever. This is why I find his current ADP so curious. During his time in the Orlando bubble, Nurkic averaged 45.84 fantasy points. This is nearly enough production to return first-round value. In regular yearly fantasy basketball leagues, free throw shooting is a concern for Nurkic, but that is not something we have to consider in Best Ball leagues. Nurkic is also in line for increased playing time since Hassan Whiteside signed with the Kings in free agency. The ADP for Nurkic is not indicative of how well he played at the end of last year.
Christian Wood: Best Ball ADP 69.4
I have no faith that DeMarcus Cousins will stay healthy. Cousins is a slight threat to Wood’s playing time in Houston, but the Rockets gave Wood a contract that implies he’s the big man of the future. He inked a three-year deal worth $41 million, while Cousins signed a one-year, non-guaranteed contract. This leads me to believe that Wood will start at center and play the bulk of the minutes over Cousins. This also might not matter since Cousins is coming off a torn ACL and tore his Achilles three years ago. It isn’t likely Cousins will stay healthy at this point in his career. In starters minutes, Wood should outperform his draft slot. As a starter with the Pistons, Wood proved himself as a strong fantasy asset, averaging 21.9 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
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Coby White: Best Ball ADP 81
Reports indicate the Bulls will open the season with White as their starting point guard. There are questions about whether White has the vision to successfully run an NBA offense, but this is the time for the Bulls to find out. They aren’t expected to compete this season, so it makes sense to give their young guys as much run as possible to figure out who is a building block for the future. White was inconsistent in real life during his rookie season, although he showed great promise as a fantasy producer. He averaged 22.33 fantasy points per game in 25.8 minutes. In a starting role, White is looking at around 35 minutes per game which puts him at an average of over 30 fantasy points using the per-minute production from last year. This makes White a candidate to rank in the top 50-60 fantasy producers.
Al Horford: Best Ball ADP 150.8
Horford isn’t the player he once was. Jokes filled Twitter about how he is washed and fleeced the 76ers by signing a massive contract prior to last season. There is some truth to this, but I think Horford has a bit left in the tank. A lot of his struggles last season were a result of a bad fit. There wasn’t enough spacing for him to play well alongside Simmons and Embiid. When those stars were off the court, Horford played well from a fantasy perspective. Per 36 minutes, he averaged 16 points, 9.1 rebounds and 6.7 assists without Simmons and Embiid. These are really encouraging numbers when considering the amount of playing time and usage available in Oklahoma City. With Steven Adams traded to New Orleans, Horford isn’t facing much competition for minutes.
Mason Plumlee: Best Ball ADP 154.9
Plumlee didn’t get the chance to play enough in Denver to have fantasy relevance. This made sense because he was buried behind Nikola Jokic on the depth chart, but he finds himself in a more favorable situation this year. The Pistons handed Plumlee one of the odder contracts in free agency. They signed him to a three-year deal worth $25 million, and it’s hard to figure out the rationale. At least this should indicate they plan on giving Plumlee ample playing time and will likely start him at center. He’s scored over a fantasy point per minute every season of his career, so his upside in a fantasy basketball and Best Ball formats is substantial relative to his draft position. The last time we saw Plumlee play decent minutes, he was the 67th ranked player in 2016-17.
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I noticed most of the guys you listed were bigs. It’d be prudent to point out that positional scarcity plays a huge role in these best ball drafts and PF/C is extremely deep this season. Wings, on the other hand, drop like flies.
100%. Although there are a bunch of wings with upside that don’t have a great mean projection that I view as having a high ceiling that I am focusing on in the later rounds. Otto Porter and Justise Winslow for example. I think there are a bunch of wings that people are reaching for and that makes them not great values. In general, I am either taking the top wings or loading up later in the draft on boom/bust wings.