Monday features a perfect medium-sized eight-game slate with some intriguing options for some key players who are starting to come back from injury. There are a plethora of big names questionable so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate, starting with MVP front-runner Luka Doncic and a sleeper pick in Clint Capela.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Boom: Luka Doncic: $12,700 DraftKings/$11,900 FanDuel
28.2% DraftKings Boom/37.5% FanDuel Boom
The most expensive player on the slate, just so happens to be by far the best pay-up option on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Currently the favorite for league MVP, Luka Doncic leads the league scoring a career-high 33.4 points per game while shooting over 50% field for the first time in his five-year career. Doncic is also averaging 8.6 rebounds and assists, while posting a league-high 63 DraftKings points per game. He has a 37.7% usage rate as he leads the Mavericks in points, rebounds, and assists for the third-straight year. Prioritize Doncic on FanDuel where he has the third highest boom percentage on the slate.
In Stokastic’s projections, Doncic has the highest fantasy points by a comfortable margin over Joel Embiid. However, with James Harden expected back, Embiid will most certainly take a hit. On the Mavericks, it is always the Doncic show, as he is the most consistent fantasy producer in the league. The Mavericks are three-point home favorites against the Suns who Doncic obliterated during the playoffs last season closing out the series with a 35-point game in 30 minutes. He may be expensive, but Doncic is the best pay-up option by far on this eight-game slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NBA DFS Boom: Clint Capela: $6,400 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel
36.5% DraftKings Boom/45.0% FanDuel Boom
After missing one game, Trae Young is expected back for the Hawks tonight. However, they will be without two of their starters John Collins and De’Andre Hunter. With those two bigs out, that will open the floor for more rebounding opportunities for center Clint Capela, who is Stokastic’s mid-range boom target. Capela has the second highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the fourth highest on DraftKings. He ranks second in the league in rebounding averaging 12 per game, while also pouring in 11.2 points per game. This is the sixth-straight season that Capela is averaging a double-double.
The Hawks have the second-highest implied total on the slate at 121 points as they are six-point home favorites against the Thunder. This game also has the second-highest total as it has risen to 236 points. What a perfect game environment for Capela as the Thunder rank 27th in rebounding percentage and points allowed in the paint with 54.2 per game. Lock in Capela for another double-double with major upside at this cheap price tag. He may be center-only eligible, but Capela is the second-best value on FanDuel and the fourth-best on DraftKings in Stokastic’s projections for this fantastic matchup.
NBA DFS Boom: T.J. McConnell: $3,900 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel
60.3% DraftKings Boom/57.5% FanDuel Boom
The best value play on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections is Pacers backup point guard T.J. McConnell. He missed last night’s game with an illness, so monitor the starting lineups page to make sure he is good to go. Tyrese Haliburton is out for the Pacers with a groin injury, which will provide a much bigger role for McConnell if he can play. McConnell has the highest boom percentage on both sites tonight as he is projected to play 24.8 minutes. In eight games that McConnell started last season, he averaged 28.8 DraftKings points per game.
If McConnell is unable to play, look to combo guard Andrew Nembhard who has produced back-to-back games with over 35 DraftKings points. He looks great even with McConnell in, as he has the second-highest boom percentage on DraftKings. McConnell is the obvious choice and much cheaper, but there is value to go around on this Pacers team despite being double digit road underdogs against the Warriors. This matchup has the highest total on the slate at 236.5 points as both teams rank in the top four in pace this season. Make sure he plays, but McConnell is the best value on the slate.
NBA DFS Bust: Devin Booker: $10,000 DraftKings/$10,200 FanDuel
55.0% DraftKings Bust/63.1% FanDuel Bust
It is rare to see Devin Booker priced at $10,000 and over on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he has deserved it. After three-straight games scoring over 40 points, Booker came back to earth last game only pouring in 20 points as the Suns demolished the Spurs by 38 points. The Suns lead the Western Conference with a 16-7 record as Chris Paul and Cameron Johnson remain out due to injury. At this salary, Booker will need another 40-point game to become relevant. That will be tough against the Mavericks who rank 29th in pace and allowing only 108.3 points per game, which ranks fourth-best in the league.
There are eight players on both DraftKings and FanDuel that have a five-figure salary. Among those eight, Booker has by far the highest bust percentage tonight. He is the only player in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings on DraftKings that has an A grade, but a D value. All of Stokastic’s tools are suggesting a Booker fade as his salary has risen and playing in a tough game environment. Even though 221.5 points may seem high, it is the sixth highest on this eight-game slate. Tonight, will be a high scoring slate, and with an optimal percentage under 4% on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Booker is the best fade of the day.
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