NBA Boom/Bust High-Upside DFS Picks: Jarrett Allen Huge Value If Active

Tuesday features a small three-game slate with some intriguing decisions to make, especially at the top of the pricing tier. There are a few news points to monitor, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features two boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate, including Luka Doncic and Jarrett Allen.

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NBA DFS Boom: Luka Doncic: $13,000 DraftKings/$11,800 FanDuel

28.2% DraftKings Boom/37.5% FanDuel Boom

The main decision for DraftKings specifically is whether or not to play Luka Doncic. He is $13,000 for the first time all season, which is a lofty salary, even for a three-game slate. Raw points matter on a small slate, but there are some other high-priced options to target tonight as well. However, Doncic is unavoidable at $11,800 on FanDuel, where he has by far the highest boom percentage on the slate. The Mavericks are playing the second end of a back-to-back, and Doncic only played 29 minutes last nigh since Dallas beat the Suns by 19 points behind Doncic’s 33.

Doncic continues to lead the league scoring a career-high 33.4 points per game with a 37.7% usage rate. He is shooting over 50% for the first time in his career while also averaging 8.5 assists and rebounds per game. Doncic has easily the highest ceiling in Stokastic’s projections for both sites tonight. The Nuggets rank 26th in defensive rating (114.4), so this is an exploitable matchup. This will be the third time these two teams have played already this season. In the previous two, Doncic averaged 27.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 9.5 assists per game. Prioritize Doncic on FanDuel, where he is much easier to fit into lineups.


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NBA DFS Boom: Jarrett Allen: $6,300 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel

36.5% DraftKings Boom/45.0% FanDuel Boom

Despite missing five straight games, Jarrett Allen looks like one of the best values on the slate, being priced in the mid-range on both sites. Allen is questionable to play tonight but did go through shootaround, so it looks like he will be able to play. Monitor the starting lineups page closer to lock to make sure. If he can’t go, the easy pivot is to Evan Mobley, who is averaging a double-double with 15.4 points and 11.3 rebounds without Allen this season. However, if active, Allen has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the third highest behind Doncic and Nikola Jokic on FanDuel.

The Cavaliers are off to a 15-9 start, which is the third-best record in the Eastern Conference. They are tied with the Heat for the highest implied total on the slate at 115 points, and this game between the Cavaliers and Lakers has a slate-high 225.5-point total. The Lakers are allowing 115.1 points and 51.8 per game in the paint this season, 21st and 24th in the league, respectively. Allen is averaging a double-double for the second straight season while shooting 58.8% from the field. He ranks inside the top three on both sites in Stokastic’s projections as the best value on the slate.

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NBA DFS Bust: Anthony Davis: $11,200 DraftKings/$12,300 FanDuel

45.0% DraftKings Bust/59.9% FanDuel Bust

Sure, Anthony Davis has played extremely well recently, even with LeBron James healthy. However, at this salary on FanDuel, it is going to be tough to justify getting exposure to the Lakers center. Being priced more than Doncic and Jokic is crazy, even when he is averaging a career-high 28.6 points and leading the league in rebounds with 12.8 per game. In Stokastic’s projections, seeing Davis with a -8.85 value on FanDuel makes this an easy fade decision. Among the high-priced options on this small slate, Davis has the highest bust percentages of them all.

Not only is it the salary that is making Davis a strong fade tonight, but it is also the very difficult matchup against the Cavaliers. They are tied for the league lead in defensive rating while allowing an NBA-best 105 points per game. The Lakers have averaged 129.8 points per game over their last five games, so this will be a true test of where the Lakers offense stands tonight. Scoring in the paint is nearly impossible against this Cavaliers frontcourt, especially if Allen suits up. They are allowing just 45.8 points in the paint per game, second in the league. Fade Davis in this tough spot with an inflated price tag.

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