NBA DFS Boom/Bust High-Upside Picks: Joel Embiid Turns 76ers Fortune

Friday features a 10-game slate before the weekend. There are plenty of pay-up options but not a lot of clear-cut value at the moment. Be sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page, as more value will likely open up throughout the day. This article features three boom candidates and one bust/fade option, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate, starting with 76ers superstar Joel Embiid.

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NBA DFS Boom: Joel Embiid: $11,500 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel

33.7% DraftKings Boom/32.3% FanDuel Boom

The top four options with the highest boom percentages on FanDuel are all studs priced $9,200 and higher. Joel Embiid leads them all with a 32.3% boom percentage, and he also ranks the fourth on DraftKings. The 76ers are coming off of a brutal road trip where they lost all three games by an average of 15 points per game. After missing 14 straight games, James Harden returned last game and played 38 minutes, but he only shot 4 of 19 from the field. Embiid led the team with 39 points, but the 76ers came up short in double overtime against the Rockets on the road.

Luckily for the 76ers, they are back at home, where they have a 7-5 record and are 5-point favorites against the Lakers. Anthony Davis and LeBron James are both probable after missing their last game, so this should be an exciting showdown. Even with Davis back, the Lakers are allowing the fifth-most points in the paint this season at 52.8 per game. They also rank 20th in rebounding percentage, so Embiid should dominate Davis and the Lakers frontcourt tonight. Embiid ranks third in the league in scoring and first in free-throw attempts and makes. Despite Harden being back, Embiid looks fantastic in this matchup.

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NBA DFS Boom: Kelly Oubre Jr.: $6,900 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel

43.5% DraftKings Boom/26.3% FanDuel Boom

Priced in the mid-range, Kelly Oubre Jr. is playing so much lately that he has to be considered one of the best plays on the slate. The Hornets are still playing without LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Dennis Smith Jr., and they have lost 15 of their last 19 games. Oubre has scored 20 or more points in six straight games, and his usage rate has risen and playing time have risen without these players on the floor. He has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the sixth highest on FanDuel despite being relatively cheap on both sites.

Oubre is the only player in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings that has an A grade and an A value on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has averaged 39.5 minutes per game over his last four games and Stokastic’s projections have him playing 39 minutes tonight, leading to rim ranking second best in value on DraftKings. The Hornets get a home matchup against the Knicks as 3-point underdogs. This is a fine matchup for Oubre, as the Knicks rank 18th in defensive rating this season. Even if the Knicks had a stout defense, it may not matter. As long as Oubre is playing nearly 40 minutes and attempting 20 field goals per game, he is going to look awesome at this salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Boom: Bogdan Bogdanovic: $4,100 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel

35.8% DraftKings Boom/21.6% FanDuel Boom

Bogdan Bogdanovic has thankfully returned for the Hawks, which is a godsend because Dejounte Murray and John Collins are both out a couple of weeks and De’Andre Hunter is listed as questionable after missing three straight. Bogdanovic has played in three games and played a season-high 25 minutes in his last game. Volume has not been a concern for Bogdanovic, who has averaged 12.7 field goal attempts per game. He has 10 3-point attempts in back-to-back games, and with his minutes starting to ramp up, it is no surprise that Bogdanovic is the best value play on the slate according to Stokastic’s projections.

Bogdanovic has the third-highest boom percentage on DraftKings tonight at a very cheap $4,100 salary. The Hawks are 7.5-point road underdogs against the Nets, who are expected to get back Ben Simmons for the first time in over a week. This matchup has the third-highest total on the slate at 230 points, so expect a fast-paced game with a ton of points. Trae Young will be the ringleader, but Bogdanovic can be his sidekick. Bogdanovic has the second-highest ownership on both sites tonight, but he is nearly impossible to fade given his salary and field goal attempts.

NBA DFS Bust: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,300 DraftKings/$11,700 FanDuel

59.0% DraftKings Bust/54.6% FanDuel Bust

Among the elite options, Giannis Antetokounmpo once again has the highest bust percentage on the slate. Even though Khris Middleton hasn’t played great since returning from injury, the upside for Giannis has been diminished. He is still scoring at an insane rate, but his peripherals have taken a hit now that Jrue Holiday is also healthy. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings, Giannis and LeBron James are the only two players with an A grade and a D value on DraftKings. It is even more clear in Stokastic’s projections that Giannis is by far the worst pay-up option on the slate for both sites.

The Bucks are favored by a bucket on the road against the Mavericks, but this total is only 224.5 points tonight and the Mavericks have played at the slowest pace for the second straight season. They rank just outside the top 10 in defensive rating but rank fourth in points allowed with 108.7 per game. The showdown between Giannis and Luka Doncic — who rank first and second in scoring this season — should be exciting to watch, but it is tough to get to either of them on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Take the fade approach with Antetokounmpo in a difficult matchup on the road.

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