NBA Daily Fantasy: DratKings Lineup Review Analyzing Winning Strategy

Welcome to March 2021. For the final night of February, DraftKings’ main NBA Daily Fantasy GPP was the NBA $450K Sunday Shootaround, $20 to enter, $100,000 to first, with a prize pool of, you guessed it, $450,000. Lots of value landmines existed, and many eyes were on the late game, although a piece or two from the first game of the night was needed to win. Let’s get right into the NBA daily fantasy lineup review.

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NBA Daily Fantasy DraftKings GPP Lineup Review | Feb. 28

In this NBA DraftKings GPP, 26,470 total entries came from 10,404 different DFS players, 1,922 (only 7.3%) of which made a profit. A total of 92.7% of DFS players who entered this GPP lost money.

The Winner

Congratulations to drankwalter, a 150-maxer who won this GPP with a score of 378. The winning lineup used $49,800 salary and had a cumulative team ownership of 151.5%. The key in this lineup was value piece Desmond Bane, who supplied 32.75 fantasy points for $3,200 at 10.5% ownership. Devin Booker went off at 5% (is his ceiling back?), as did Kendrick Nunn, and finally, Nerlens Noel actually had a ceiling game as well.

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Salary and Ownership

Eight of the top 50 finishers used less than $49,700. Here are the top salaries used last night:

$50,000 | 48%
$49,900 | 24%
$49,800 | 12%
$49,700 | 7%
$49,600 | 3%

The most popular optimal lineup was played 93 times, using all $50,000 team salary and having a cumulative team ownership of only 231.2%. It started off well with Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker, but relying on Goran Dragic in any game this year has been a sketchy proposition. Finally, it is incredibly rare to see four players from the same team on a GPP winner. The Hornets proved this once again yesterday — four players from the same team is smaller-slate, special situations only. This lineup scored a 272.5 and did not cash.

The 150-Maxers

Only 44 150-maxers played last night, entering 6,600 lineups and making up 25% of entries in this tournament. Eight made a profit, and 10 cashed fewer than 20 lineups. All told, 150-maxers took eight of the top 20 spots, including first, fourth, seventh and eighth.

The most profitable 150-maxer was the winner, drankwalter. Since we have already looked at the winning lineup, we will not have another look here. Instead I will mention that DraftKings profited $79,400 for conducting this GPP, while ninth and 10th places paid out just $2,000.

The second-most profitable player on the night entered 21 lineups, cashing 17 and profiting over $42,000:

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Miscellaneous

Boom of the slate goes to P.J. Washington, who has been on fire lately. He was rostered in 25.1% of lineups last night and rewarded the faithful with 66.25 fantasy points (11.2x) for $5,900. Bust was Dragic, who underperformed in a good spot for the 86th time this season. He was owned in 44.6% of lineups and returned 23.5 fantasy points (4.4x) for $5,400.

One hundred twenty-two lineups were reserved and not played. The lowest-owned lineup that cashed (min-cashed) featured cumulative team ownership of only 31.5%:

The lowest-salary team that cashed (min-cashed) used $48,300 team salary:

The best single-entry lineup took sixth place with a 360.5:

The best lineup possible would have scored a 404.75 and would have won this GPP by 26.75 points:

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