NBA DFS action on Monday, Jan. 11, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with an enticing eight-game main slate. Before you lock in your NBA DFS picks and favorite lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS picks, including Malcolm Brogdon, Bradley Beal and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Key Building Blocks | Jan. 11
Malcolm Brogdon: Indiana Pacers at Sacramento Kings
DraftKings $8,300, FanDuel $8,400, Yahoo $37
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 13.8%, FanDuel 18.1% Yahoo 12.4%
In case you have missed it, and judging by the lack of chatter most have, Malcolm Brogdon has been putting on a clinic over his last four games. This is partly boosted by his insane 41.3 minutes during this stretch as well as his efficiency, as he is hitting on nearly half of his shots. In this stretch he is averaging 27.8 points, 4.5 3-pointers made, 4.5 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 2.2 combined steals/blocks. All of this has culminated with three 50-fantasy-point performances in the four games.
Looking at the Pacers rotation via AddMoreFunds.com, it is interesting to note that Brogdon has played every minute of the third quarter in these games. That gives him a relatively safe baseline, and we can see all of the upside coming from what transpires in the final frame. These games have all been down to the wire, which has given Brogdon the heavy minutes.
The only worry here is that this is the first night of a five-game West Coast road trip. Indiana plays again tomorrow in Golden State and then as Saturday/Sunday back-to-back, wrapping up their five games in seven nights. If any of these games gets out of hand early, head coach Nate Bjorkgren may empty the bench, but that is a risk in any game.
Bradley Beal: Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns
DraftKings $9,900, FanDuel $10,100, Yahoo $43
Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 14.5%, FanDuel 19.8% Yahoo 28.8%
Russell Westbrook will be out tonight, as he is dealing with a dislocated finger as well as a quad injury. Thomas Bryant went down two minutes into Saturday’s game with a torn ACL, and he will be out for the rest of the year. That means once again we are going to see the Bradley Beal show. Beal was out on Saturday as a result of contact tracing, so he should be recharged having last played on Friday.
We have an interesting dichotomy here, with the Wizards playing at the fastest pace in the league at 108.8 possessions per 48 minutes, while the Suns’ 98.3 is the lowest mark. This game has a 230.0 total, so there should be plenty of fantasy goodness available for Beal. In 183 minutes with Westbrook, Beal is averaging 1.24 FanDuel points. In the 112 minutes without Westbrook, this jumps to 1.60 fantasy points per minute and a 41.4% usage rate.
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NBA DFS Picks: Good Value
Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks
Indications are that Joel Embiid will be playing tonight. However, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Seth Curry, Shake Milton, Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz are all out with injuries or per health and safety protocols. This means we should see Embiid as the offensive focal point with increased roles for Tyrese Maxey, Dakota Mathias, Isaiah Joe and Dwight Howard.
Mike Scott (knee) is also likely to play. Embiid and Scott give coach Doc Rivers nine healthy options instead of the seven he had in the last game. Scott is in play on DraftKings at $3,000, as he should get offensive opportunities off the bench. Howard is risky as he and Embiid have yet to share the court. Maxey is intriguing, but he is not going to score 37 points again, while Matias and Joe are lineup fillers at best.
Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
It sounds like Kristaps Porzingis will be in action tonight for the first time since tearing his meniscus in the Orlando bubble. While this will help the Mavericks, it is hard to see him playing more than 20-25 minutes unless we have any other indications from coach Rick Carlisle. Maxi Kleber, Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are all out per the health and safety protocol.
This keeps Luka Doncic in play despite his lofty price tag. Tim Hardaway Jr. is fairly priced, but he can still provide upside if he is going to approach 20 field goal attempts. Be careful with Trey Burke, as he racked up his 40-burger on Saturday in 21 minutes, making 11 of his 13 shots including seven of eight from 3-point range. At this time I would prefer to not exceed half of whatever figure the Awesemo ownership projections are predicting for the journeyman.
NBA DFS Picks: Risky Value and Strategy
Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns
Outside of Beal it is hard to trust any of the Wizards, as they all come with question marks. Raulzinho Neto and Ish Smith are producing 0.9 fantasy points per minute, but even without Westbrook it is hard to know what coach Scott Brooks is going to do. Rookie Deni Avdija is starting, but he is lacking with peripherals and it seems like Troy Brown has taken two steps backward from last season.
With Bryant out, I still don’t see Robin Lopez getting more than his usual 16-20 minutes. Moritz Wagner is absolutely in play as a tournament option, but he is a foul magnet as evidenced by the six he collected in 20 minutes against Miami on Saturday.
Davis Bertans is a reasonable roster filler, but he is very scoring dependent. That leaves us with Rui Hachimura, who is producing 0.85 fantasy points per minute this season, and even if he gets 30-32 minutes, it is not that awe inspiring to me. A couple of these guys are likely to have good games, but how many outside of Beal have a chance at a great game?
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Danny Green: PHI at ATL – $11
- Moritz Wagner: WAS vs. PHX – $10
- Raulzinho Neto: WAS vs. PHX – $10
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Malcolm Brogdon: IND at SAC – 1.45x multiplier
- Victor Oladipo: IND at SAC – 1.60x multiplier
- Tyrese Maxey: PHI at ATL – 2.00x multiplier
Final Thoughts
There are plenty of value options tonight but the pricing does not align across every site. Be sure to understand your preferred site’s pricing and scoring systems.
Be sure to into the Awesemo NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock show beginning at 5:00 p.m. EST for all of your up-to-date information and analysis.
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