One of the most important things that anyone playing NBA DFS needs to think about is their goals. Do you want to be one of the few people who are able to survive solely from DFS profits from DraftKings and FanDuel? Do you want to supplement your income with somewhat consistent DFS profits? Are you looking mostly for entertainment (and if you happen to win some money along the way then that’s cool too)?
****Stay tuned for more NBA DFS strategy content from Adam ‘ShipMyMoney” Scherer and Josh Engleman all throughout the next week!
Choosing which DFS contests to enter is largely dependent on your goals and what you are looking for from DFS. There really isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach for playing DFS because we are all looking for different things and we have different amounts of risk that we can tolerate. This article will walk through the most common contest types and give you a general breakdown of the pros and cons of each.
NBA DFS Game Selection Strategy For DraftKings + FanDuel
50/50s and Double-Ups
These contests pay about 50 percent of the field, and everyone who finishes above the cash line receives the same amount of money, regardless of which position they finish in. These contests are considered “cash games,” and you can read more about the appropriate strategy (read our cash game strategy article). While these contests aren’t going to change your life and make you rich like you see from some DraftKings and FanDuel commercials, they are a useful component of a low variance approach to DFS that allows you to steadily build your bankroll. The most profitable versions of these contests to play are single-entry, large-field contests, as they ensure you will be competing against the greatest number of unique players and the cash line will almost always be lower than in multi-entry, smaller-field contests.
Head-to-Heads
These contests are also typically referred to as “cash games,” and your strategy should be similar to your strategy in 50/50s and Double-Ups. One substantial difference between these contests, however, is that head-to-heads are less “all or nothing.” If you finish in the 55th percentile of a 50/50 contest, you will lose 100 percent of your money. If you play 100 head-to-heads at the same buy-in level and have a 55th-percentile lineup, you will lose about 5 percent of your buy-ins. Because of this, prioritizing head-to-heads on DraftKings and FanDuel is actually safer than prioritizing 50/50s and Double-Ups (especially if you do a good job of avoiding the best head-to-head players).
Josh Engleman’s NBA DFS Strategy Contest Selection
Three-Mans, Five-Mans, Triple-Ups and Quintuple-Ups
These contests are a combination of the traditional cash game format and GPP format. A smaller percentage of the field gets paid, but those who win get a bigger reward than in 50/50s or head-to-heads. Typically, you will want to build lineups in the same way that you would for traditional cash game contests, but there is one notable exception to consider if you are a more advanced player.
Most players enter the exact same lineup into three-mans, five-mans, etc. as they do into head-to-heads and 50/50s. This is fine if you are confident that you are superior to most of your opponents because you will make money over time by simply having a better lineup than your opponents. As you move up in stakes, however, the quality of your opponents will get better, and you will notice that you are playing against the same opponents more frequently — and they often have very similar lineups to each other because they are all playing the lineup that they believe has the highest median projection. Pay attention to the lineups that your frequent opponents are using. If they are using the same lineup in these contests as they are in head-to-heads and 50/50s, you can exploit them by predicting their lineup and then playing a slightly different version. Essentially, you can create situations where you are receiving 2-1 odds on the equivalent of a coin flip.
Combining 50/50s, Double-Ups, Head-to-Heads, Three-Mans and Five-Mans is a strong foundation for players who are looking to grind out steady profits on DraftKings and FanDuel without risking substantial losses.
Single Entry and Three-Max GPPs
GPPs are Guaranteed Prize Pool contests and refer to larger-field tournaments where a small percentage of the field wins money, with a substantial portion of the prize pool going to the top few finishers. You can read more about general GPP strategy, but in general they offer a large potential reward if you are willing to take on some risk in your lineups.
Some GPPs limit the number of entries that a user can have. In Single-Entry GPPs a user can enter one lineup, while in Three-Max GPPs a user can enter three separate lineups. While the first-place prize in these types of GPPs is often smaller than in contests that allow a user to enter 150 lineups, the field is also usually smaller, making you more likely to record a top finish.
These contests are useful for players who are looking for more upside from DFS than cash games offer but who don’t want to play at a disadvantage against players who are willing and/or able to enter a greater number of lineups. These contests also don’t come with quite as much short-term risk as larger-field tournaments.
Large-Field 150-Max GPPs
These are the big tournaments that everyone dreams about winning. There are tens or hundreds of thousands of lineups entered, and first place often takes home six or seven figures. Users are allowed to enter up to 150 lineups into most of these large tournaments. These tournaments offer the weakest field in terms of percentage of entries from good players, but they are also difficult to consistently profit in because they are typically extremely top heavy. Good tournament players can expect to make money over a long period in these contests, but they will often experience large short-term downswings so it is important to be able to withstand substantial short-term risk if these are your primary contests.
These contests are good for two types of players. First, they’re great for high-end players who have extremely large bankrolls and can withstand large downswings. Second, they’re great for players who are looking for entertainment with upside. That is, if your goal isn’t to grind out a consistent profit from DFS and you are looking more for some excitement with the chance of occasionally winning some money, then these contests are great on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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Live Finals, Qualifiers and Satellites
Satellites refer to contests that reward the winner(s) with an entry to a different contest. These aren’t usually considered a good investment if your primary focus is steady bankroll growth, but they can be useful for players who are more interested in winning a large amount of money at once since they can grant you entry to more expensive GPPs than you would otherwise play.
Live final qualifiers are the ultimate satellite contest. Live finals are run once a season in most sports, and they are typically a relatively small field (usually 100-200 entrants) with a huge prize pool (usually $500,000 or more going to first place). To participate in the live final, you must win a “qualifier”. The qualifier is essentially a satellite contest that rewards a ticket to the live final. Trying to qualify for live finals can get quite expensive, as many of the qualifiers are expensive and winner-take-all, so losses can add up quickly. I personally lost about $30,000 in the course of a month or two the first time that I decided to actively try and qualify for a live final. The potential reward is enormous, however, as you will never be more likely to win life-changing money from one contest than you will in a live final.
Because of the risk and reward, how a player should approach live finals is very goal dependent. If you are looking to use DFS as a steady means of income, qualifying for live finals shouldn’t be a primary focus because of the high variance that comes along with them. If you are someone who doesn’t rely on steady income from DFS, however, and your primary DFS goal is to try and change your life relatively quickly (and you can afford to take on significant risk), then it’s hard to beat the upside of a live final.
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