Thursday features a relatively small six-game slate with only one game that has above a 229 total. That would be the matchup between the Hornets and Thunder that has a total currently at 239 points. Despite that game drawing a lot of attention, there are still other great spots to get exposure too on this slate.
There is going to be news to follow throughout the day, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Play: Luka Doncic: $12,000 DraftKings/$12,400 FanDuel
43.0% DraftKings Boom/31.4% FanDuel Boom
There are only two players in NBA history who have scored over 110 DraftKings points in the database. Luka Doncic and the great Michael Jordan. MJ still holds the highest score in his regular season game in 1990, but Doncic is second with his triple-double on Tuesday night where he finished with 60 points, 21 rebounds, and 10 assists. Doncic made a ridiculous 21 of 31 from the field in the Mavericks overtime victory over the Knicks, while playing a season-high 47 minutes. On this six-game slate, no one comes close to the ceiling that Doncic provides. He has nearly a double-digit lead in fantasy scoring on both sites in our Stokastic projections.
It is pretty tough to find a better matchup for Doncic after his historical game as the Mavericks host the Rockets as double-digit favorites. Not only did Doncic dominate last game, but three games ago he finished with 50 points and 82 DraftKings points. He has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the third highest on DraftKings despite his expensive salary on both sites. The Rockets defense ranks 28th in defensive rating this season, so Doncic will have every bit of an opportunity for another massive ceiling game tonight.
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NBA DFS Play: Immanuel Quickley: $5,000 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel
43.1% DraftKings Boom/15.8% FanDuel Boom
Sticking at the guard position, Immanuel Quickley looks like a fantastic salary saver on this six-game slate. With RJ Barrett out and Jalen Brunson questionable to play, Quickley has the second-highest boom percentage on DraftKings at a cheap $5,000 salary. Usually a boom or bust candidate, Quickley tried his best to match Doncic in that overtime game Tuesday night. He finished with 13 points, 15 assists, and 42.8 DraftKings points while playing 51 minutes. Impressive game despite shooting 5 of 21 from the field and 1 of 10 from downtown.
Quickley is projected for 33 minutes tonight and is the second-best value for DraftKings in our Stokastic projections. Last game was the fifth straight that Quickley scored double-digit points. He has a big increase in production and usage rate with Barrett off the floor and those numbers boost even more if Brunson is unable to play. Make sure to monitor the starting lineups page the closer we get to lock on Brunson’s status. It wouldn’t change his DraftKings value much, but it would make him a much better play on FanDuel where he is $1,000 more expensive.
NBA DFS Fade: Tyrese Haliburton: $9,200 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel
47.0% DraftKings Bust/64.5% FanDuel Bust
Tyrese Haliburton is questionable to miss just his third game all season, so this is another player who we’ll need to monitor throughout the day. Even if Haliburton is able to play, this is a brutal matchup against the Cavaliers who lead the league in both defensive rating and points allowed with 105.5 per game. The salary has dipped a little bit due to this matchup, but not enough. Haliburton still has the highest bust percentage among the pay-up options on both DraftKings and FanDuel despite being arguably the Pacers best player and only shot at staying in this game.
The Pacers have the second-lowest team total on the slate at 109.25 points. They are five-point home underdogs, so even if Haliburton is unable to play, it is going to be tough to roster anyone from this team in such a tough matchup. Haliburton is one of three players who has an A grade and C value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA DFS Rankings. The other two would be Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell who are both worthy fade candidates. The price tag may be intriguing, but fade Haliburton if he plays in this difficult spot.
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