Tuesday presents a 10-game slate with some of the best pay-up options in the league. We have five games with a total over 235 points, so expect another high-scoring slate. There is one pay-up option to play and one to fade in this article.
There is going to be news to follow throughout the day, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Play: Nikola Jokic: $11,400 DraftKings/$12,400 FanDuel
49.8% DraftKings Boom/26.2% FanDuel Boom
Nikola Jokic has the highest fantasy score on both sites in our Stokastic projections, but comes in $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings. He is coming off of his third triple-double in his last four games as the back-to-back MVP is making it difficult for the voters not to put him in for a third-straight year. During that four game stretch, Jokic is averaging a ridiculous 30.8 points, 15.8 rebounds, 12.3 assists, and 74.9 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 56% from the field. He has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings for good reason.
Tonight, Jokic is in another elite matchup against the Kings who are allowing the third-most points per game in the paint this season. To make matters worse, Domantas Sabonis suffered a fracture in his right thumb. It is his non-shooting hand so Sabonis is trying to play through it and is listed as questionable. Guarding Jokic with a fracture in a thumb doesn’t sound feasible. Make sure to monitor our starting lineups page to see if Sabonis is able to suit up or not. If he can’t go, get as much exposure to Jokic as possible, especially on DraftKings.
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NBA DFS Play: Onyeka Okongwu: $5,500 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel
10.4% DraftKings Boom/9.2% FanDuel Boom
Diving a little bit deeper into the Boom/Bust Tool is Hawks center Onyeka Okongwu. Expect his percentages to rise throughout the day as the Hawks will be playing once again without starting center Clint Capela. Despite the rise in salary, Okongwu is one of the best value plays on the slate for both sites. In his last game he started without Capela, Okongwu had a double-double with 18 points, 11 rebounds, and five blocks. He finished with 44.25 DraftKings points as his ceiling continues to be massive without Capela in the lineup.
It will be difficult to ignore Okongwu in this matchup against Myles Turner and the Pacers frontcourt. The Hawks have nearly a 120 implied team total as the Pacers rank 27th in rebounding percentage this season. They are also allowing just outside the top 10 in points per game in the paint, which is where Okongwu will look to dominate. In his third year in the league, Okongwu is averaging career-high’s in both points and rebounds as he will look to add to those totals tonight. He is a cheap way to get exposure to this 237.5 game total.
NBA DFS Play: Jeremy Sochan: $4,100 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel
43.9% DraftKings Boom/18.6% FanDuel Boom
The Spurs are finally starting to unleash ninth overall pick Jeremy Sochan. Over the last four games, Sochan is averaging 13.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and over 30 DraftKings points per game. Similar to Jokic, Sochan is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel and needs to be prioritized on that site. Sochan has the second-highest boom percentage on DraftKings behind Jokic. He also has the highest value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our Stokastic projections, making him the best value option on this slate.
This is another very high-total game between the Spurs and Thunder as it continues to climb to 235.5 points. The Spurs are seven-point underdogs, but the Thunder play at the third-fastest pace in the league. They also have the fifth-lowest Rebounding Percentage so there is an outside chance that Sochan can reach double-digit rebounds after coming up one rebound short in two of his last three games. Prioritize Sochan on DraftKings, but he is a great play on both sites to fit in the expensive players tonight.
NBA DFS Fade: LeBron James: $10,600 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel
30.0% DraftKings Bust/53.4% FanDuel Bust
Despite LeBron James going back into hero mode without Anthony Davis, the Lakers are struggling to capture victories as they have a 13-20 record this season. Over the last seven games, James has rewind back the clock. He has scored 30 or more points and over 50 DraftKings points in each game while shooting a ridiculous 57.8% from the field. However, that is not going to cut it with his salary continue to rise, especially on FanDuel. He has by far one of the highest bust percentages on the slate as he hasn’t done much in the peripheral department.
James is the most expensive player on the slate who has an A grade and C value on FanDuel for our NBA DFS Rankings. Being this expensive, James is competing with Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic and he doesn’t come close to the ceiling that they have given his lack of rebounds and assists. James makes more sense to be played on DraftKings as this is a strong matchup against the Magic who rank 22nd in defensive rating this season. Even with Davis out, there are better pay-up options on this slate that have higher ceilings.
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