NBA DFS Picks Today: The Joel Embiid/James Harden Dynamic May Define the Slate

Tuesday features another medium-sized slate with seven games on the schedule. Unlike last night, there are no games with a total reaching 230 points, so this is likely a lower scoring slate.

There are a ridiculous number of players questionable for tonight, so it is extremely important to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for Tuesday’s action.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Joel Embiid: $11,200 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel

33.3% DraftKings Boom/27.6% FanDuel Boom

It is difficult to sift through all of the questionable players on tonight’s slate, especially amongst the stud options. Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid are all questionable to play after each player has missed some time recently. One positive working for Embiid today is that he went through morning shootaround. If he is able to play, he is in a feast spot against a Pistons frontcourt that is without Marvin Bagley and rookie center Jalen Duren. Embiid ranks fifth on both DraftKings and FanDuel in boom percentage tonight.

Embiid is second to Doncic in scoring this season, averaging a career-high 33.5 points per game. He is also second to Doncic for this seven-game slate in fantasy score in Stokastic’s projections. The Pistons are getting demolished in the paint, allowing 54.6 points per game, which is the fourth highest in the league. Without Duren in the paint, the Pistons are also getting destroyed on the glass. After missing three straight games due to a foot injury, Embiid could come back in a cupcake matchup and easily record another monster double-double.


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NBA DFS Play: Jimmy Butler: $8,900 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel

11.4% DraftKings Boom/15.1% FanDuel Boom

Normally it is Jimmy Butler who sits for the Heat, but now Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are all out, making Butler an extremely strong play on tonight’s slate. Hosting the Thunder, who are 5-13 on the road, Butler is poised for a breakout game as the last Heat player standing. Butler’s 21.6 points per game are the most he has scored since his first season with the Timberwolves in the 2017-18 season. It helps that he is shooting a career-high 51.6% from the field, and now with the added usage, his boom percentage is going to fly up the board.

The Thunder have an extremely weak interior defense that ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint with 52.2 per game. That bodes well for Butler, who is leading the Heat in drives with 13.6 and attempting only 2.1 3-pointers per game. Not only is Butler shooting well, but he is averaging a combined 10 rebounds and assists per game. Priced at $9,000 or lower on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Butler without Lowry, Adebayo and Herro is going to have a field day. He will likely be one of the highest-owned players on the slate throughout the day.

NBA DFS Play: Duane Washington Jr.: $4,200 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel

59.5% DraftKings Boom/36.3% FanDuel Boom

Losers of nine of their last 10 games, the Suns are flying downhill quicker than a luge sled. Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Cameron Payne are out, while Landry Shamet and Deandre Ayton are questionable. Duane Washington Jr. has yet to start a game for the Suns this season but has played 25 minutes in back-to-back games. During that time, Washington is averaging 19 points, five assists, 29.1 DraftKings points per game and a crazy-high 41.3% usage rate. He is by far the best value play on both sites in Stokastic’s projections.

Washington also leads the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel for the highest boom percentage. Even if he continues coming off the bench, Washington will more than likely be one of the highest-owned players on both sites. The Suns are double-digit road underdogs against a Warriors team that is 17-4 at home. However, even if they get blown out, the Suns are running out of bodies to play, which solidifies the playing time for Washington. Stokastic projects him for 27.3 minutes, making Washington an elite value play.

NBA DFS Fade: James Harden: $10,400 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel

57.0% DraftKings Bust/63.3% FanDuel Bust

With Embiid going through shootaround this morning, James Harden is popping as a fade candidate at his inflated salary. Harden is coming off of his second triple-double of the season against the Pistons last game. In a repeat matchup, this situation is a bit different given Embiid may be in the lineup. With a price tag above $10,000 on both sites, Harden has a bust percentage well over 50%. He is still averaging a league-high 10.8 assists per game, but Harden’s production decreases if Embiid suits up like he is projected to.

Harden is the only player on this seven-game slate that has an A grade and a D value on DraftKings and a C value on FanDuel in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings. The Pistons matchup is elite, and the 76ers are 12.5-point home favorites against the cellar dweller of the Eastern Conference. However, this game could get out of hand in a hurry. With Embiid dominating the paint, Harden’s usage rate and production in a game with potentially limited minutes are a perfect recipe for a fade. Play Embiid over Harden in this potential 76ers blowout tonight.

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