NBA DFS Fades & Booms: Luka Doncic's Ceiling Is Matchup-Proof

Thursday features a very small four-game slate but has arguably the three players who are frontrunners in the MVP discussion in Luka Doncic, Nikola Jokic and Jayson Tatum. All three look great in their own right tonight, so choosing the stud to pay up for will be extremely important. The only news to wait on is the status of Paul George, but DFS players must follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight and in case any more news breaks. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for Thursday’s action.

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NBA DFS Play: Luka Doncic: $12,600 DraftKings/$12,800 FanDuel

38.4% DraftKings Boom/28.0% FanDuel Boom

Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic are both in similar spots for this small four-game slate. They both easily have the highest upside in Stokastic’s projections, but they have relatively difficult matchups. Doncic has the slight edge to Jokic on DraftKings for the highest boom percentage on the slate, but it is the opposite for FanDuel. However, it is tough to deny that, over the last six games, Doncic has proved his massive ceiling. During that time, Doncic is averaging a near triple-double with 44.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game. He has shot 56.2% from the field while averaging a monstrous 81.2 DraftKings points per game.

After having the luxury of playing against poor defensive teams over his last six games, Doncic will get a tougher challenge against the Celtics, who rank eighth in defensive rating this season. Despite the difficult matchup, Doncic is matchup-proof, and he proved that earlier this season against the Celtics. The Mavericks lost by 13 points, but Doncic still scored 42 points while shooting 17 of 28 from the field and recording nine assists and eight rebounds in 40 minutes. Don’t let the tough matchup deter from getting exposure to the highest ceiling on the slate.

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NBA DFS Play: Kenyon Martin Jr.: $3,500 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel

36.8% DraftKings Boom/21.4% FanDuel Boom

Kenyon Martin Jr. is the best value play on this small slate in Stokastic’s projections. He has the highest value on both sites by a large margin, as he is priced at $3,500 on DraftKings and $3,900 on FanDuel. Martin is coming off a game where he played 25 minutes and scored 16 points while shooting a perfect 7-for-7 from the field. He did make two 3-pointers, but most of his production comes from in the paint, which is setting him up for success tonight in arguably the best game environment on the slate.

The Jazz defense has plummeted since their hot start. They are allowing a league-high 56.1 points per game in the paint this season, while their opponents shoot 48.5% from the field. In his third season in the league, Martin is averaging a career-high 10.5 points per game and shooting 55.4% from the field. That type of production at under $4,000 on both sites is nearly impossible to find. Martin is also hovering around 60% in Stokastic’s ownership projections, which is by far the highest on the slate. There is no better value tonight.

NBA DFS Fade: Jaylen Brown: $9,500 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel

56.0% DraftKings Bust/58.6% FanDuel Bust

Scoring is not a problem for Jaylen Brown, who is averaging a career-high 27.2 points per game while shooting 49.8% from the field. Brown has scored 20 or more points in 33 of his 36 games this season. However, priced this high on both sites, Brown needs to do more than just score. He has the highest bust percentage among the pay-up options, and it will be tough to get exposure to him when Doncic and Jokic are on this slate. The effort statistic that basically decides if he will have a boom game or a bust game is rebounds.

Playing against the Mavericks may be about as good of a rebounding spot as Brown will get this season, but he has only one rebound in two of his last four games. The Mavericks rank last in rebounding percentage (47.6%) entering tonight’s games. They only grab 38.9 rebounds per game, which is the lowest in the league by far. Now that Robert Williams is healthy and Jayson Tatum is still the best player on the team, Brown may be an afterthought beyond scoring. Get Celtics exposure elsewhere rather than paying this salary for Brown tonight.

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