NBA DFS Picks Today: Naz Reid Continues to Bring Value

Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool has been popping off lately. It is one of the best tools in the industry and this article is dedicated to finding plays to play and fade using it. Saturday features an eight-game slate flooded with very strong value plays and studs worth paying up for.

Weekend NBA is always filled with plenty of player news, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

 

Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Luka Doncic: $12,100 DraftKings/$12,400 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Boom/39.9% FanDuel Boom

It is impossible not to go right back to Luka Doncic given how well he has played recently. Over the last four games, Doncic is averaging a huge triple-double with 44.3 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10.5 assists per game. During that time, he has averaged a ridiculous 83.5 DraftKings points per game. He is easily the best pay-up option on the slate as he has a top four boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Doncic continues to rank second in the league in both scoring and usage rate with career-high’s in both statistics.

The Mavericks are 7.5-point road favorites against one of the worst teams in the league the San Antonio Spurs. They have a 119.25 implied team total, which ranks as the fourth-highest on the slate. Playing against the Spurs is arguably the best matchup. They have the worst defensive rating in the league while allowing a league-high 120.3 points per game. No need to fear blowout in this spot as Doncic can reach value regardless. Even playing only 34 minutes in a 15-point victory against the Rockets, Doncic had another triple-double with over 80 DraftKings points. In our Stokastic projections, Doncic leads the slate by eight points on both DraftKings and FanDuel.


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NBA DFS Play: Immanuel Quickley: $5,700 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel

73.5% DraftKings Boom/47.2% FanDuel Boom

When playing a $12,000+ Doncic, finding value will be very important to round out lineups. Immanuel Quickley should be one of the first pieces filled in with RJ Barrett out and Jalen Brunson questionable. Brunson has missed back-to-back games, which has forced Quickley into the starting lineup giving him a massive ceiling. In the last two games, Quickley is averaging 24.5 points, 11 assists, and 51 DraftKings points per game. He has the second-highest boom percentage on both sites in this incredible matchup against the Rockets.

This game has the lowest total on the slate at 223.5 points, but the Rockets rank 28th in defensive rating while allowing 116.1 points per game. With no Barrett and potentially no Brunson once again, Quickley is going to have the ball in his hands early and often. His production and usage rate soar as Quickley has attempted over 20 field goals in back-to-back games. Even with his rising salary, Quickley is the second-best value play on the slate in our Stokastic projections. He is one of the easiest plug and plays, especially if Brunson is unable to play.

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NBA DFS Play: Naz Reid: $4,700 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel

87.1% DraftKings Boom/67.5% FanDuel Boom

The only reason Quickley isn’t the best value on the slate is because that title belongs to Timberwolves center Naz Reid. He comes in with by far the highest boom percentage on both DraftKings and FanDuel at over 65% on both sites. Similar to Quickley, Reid is nearly $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings compared to FanDuel. Even with that, he still has the highest value on both sites in our Stokastic projections as he is reaching a double-digit value.

The main reason Reid is popping so much is Rudy Gobert is projected to be out right now. Gobert missed last night’s game with an illness and his status for tonight remains in question. Make sure to follow our starting lineups page on Gobert’s status, but honestly Reid is going to be a great value regardless. Last game without Gobert, Reid had 16 points and seven rebounds despite only playing 30 minutes due to foul trouble. This is also a great matchup as the Pistons rank 29th in defensive rating while allowing the second-most points in the league at 118.9 per game. They also struggle defending the paint, which only boosts the upside for a cheap Naz Reid.

NBA DFS Fade: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $10,300 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel

41.0% DraftKings Bust/42.0% FanDuel Bust

Fading Zion Williamson again was certainly on the table, but we’ll change it up a bit and fade Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who has a similarly high bust percentage among the elite pay-up options. These percentages are a little lower than what we are used to see, but Gilgeous-Alexander needs to do quite a lot to pay off this five-digit salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s be real, the Thunder have 15 wins mainly because they have Gilgeous-Alexander. He is averaging a career-high 31.4 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field.

Scoring is what Gilgeous-Alexander does best, but that will be put to the test against a 76ers defense that ranks fourth in defensive rating this season. They are allowing only 108.5 points per game, which ranks second in the league and are also five-point home favorites. Even with a high usage rate, it is going to be tough to get exposure to Gilgeous-Alexander with so many better pay-up options on this slate. Among the players priced $10,000 or higher, Gilgeous-Alexander has the worst value in our Stokastic projections. Fade the electric point guard in this tough matchup.

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