NBA DFS Fades & Booms: Nikola Jokic Leads a Tricky Center Pool

Wednesday features another medium-sized slate with eight games and plenty of really strong plays. Once again, over half of the games tonight have an implied total over 230 points. There is going to be news to follow throughout the day, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

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NBA DFS Play: Nikola Jokic: $11,700 DraftKings/$12,300 FanDuel

49.4% DraftKings Boom/32.8% FanDuel Boom

Obviously, Luka Doncic stole the show last night with his unreal 110-DraftKings-point performance, but with no Doncic on this slate, Nikola Jokic will likely be the needed pay-up option in the same matchup as he saw last night. Jokic has the highest boom percentage on both sites but still needs to be prioritized on DraftKings over FanDuel. Last night, he had a near triple-double of 20 points, 11 assists and nine rebounds. Domantas Sabonis sat out due to injury, and his status for tonight remains unclear. Regardless of if Sabonis is in for the Kings or not, Jokic is deserving of the highest salary on the slate.

The Kings are still allowing the third-most points per game in the paint this season. Jokic shot 7 of 10 from the field last night, which was by far his fewest field goal attempts in nearly a month. Expect Jokic to bounce back, capture that triple-double and be the best pay-up play on the slate. In Stokastic’s projections, Jokic stands above everyone else on both DraftKings and FanDuel with the highest projected fantasy score. There are so many strong value center options on this slate, but don’t forget to pay-up for the best play in Jokic.

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NBA DFS Play: Jalen Duren: $5,100 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel

28.9% DraftKings Boom/16.8% FanDuel Boom

One of those value center options is Pistons rookie Jalen Duren. Picking just one value center is not an easy task on this slate; there are three centers priced around the same range on both sites. Including Duren, the other two are Onyeka Okongwu and Thomas Bryant. If Bam Adebayo plays, it will be tough to get to Bryant. Clint Capela is probably out, but Okongwu has been in foul trouble the last two games. That leaves Duren, who is coming off of a season-high 39 minutes last game, and Marvin Bagley will continue to be out.

On FanDuel, the center decision is nearly impossible, with these three and Jokic all being center-only eligible. However, on DraftKings, where two centers can be played, Duren is the cheapest of the trio and has the highest boom percentage. Duren has shown massive rebounding upside recently, as he has double-digit rebounds in eight of his last 10 games. The Magic have also allowed way more points in the paint than the Heat and Nets this season. It is difficult to differentiate between these three value centers, but Duren looks the best, especially on DraftKings.

NBA DFS Play: Pat Connaughton: $4,000 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel

15.7% DraftKings Boom/14.5% FanDuel Boom

One of the best value plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel comes at forward with Pat Connaughton. He is coming off of a great Christmas Day game in which he poured in four 3-pointers while scoring 15 points and 28.5 DraftKings points. That was his first start of the season, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he hung on to that role, at least until Khris Middleton returns. Connaughton is projected to be one of the highest-owned players on the slate, especially on FanDuel. Joe Ingles is back but hasn’t cut into much of the playing time for Connaughton.

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Stokastic’s projections have Connaughton projected to play over 30 minutes, and he is one of the best values on FanDuel. The Bulls are allowing opponents to shoot 38% from behind the arc, which is the second highest in the league. With 73% of his field goal attempts coming from downtown, Connaughton has a chance for a big game at a cheap price tag. The Bucks are 4.5-point road favorites, and this is their 10th road game in their last 13 games. There is value getting to a cheap Connaughton and paying up for the studs on this slate.

NBA DFS Fade: LeBron James: $10,300 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel

34.0% DraftKings Bust/63.4% FanDuel Bust

LeBron James finally broke his seven-game streak of scoring 30 or more points last night as he poured in 28. The Lakers finally got back in the win column, but James still didn’t have a ceiling game is necessary in tournaments. Mainly due to his high salary, especially on FanDuel, James has one of the highest bust percentages on the slate. His bust percentage on FanDuel increased 10% from last night due to this difficult matchup against the Heat, who rank eighth in defensive rating (111.1) entering tonight’s games.

It makes much more sense to get James exposure on DraftKings, where he is $1,100 cheaper, but there are other strong pay-up options, which makes it a little difficult. The Lakers are still playing without Anthony Davis, which does boost the ceiling for James. However, the main news for this slate comes on the Heat side, as Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both questionable. In Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings, James is one of four players and is the highest-priced to have an A grade and C value on FanDuel. Fade LeBron again tonight.

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