NBA DFS Fades & Booms: Nikola Jokic Needs a Six-Figure Salary to Fade

With the NFL regular season over, there will be added attention to the NBA moving forward. Monday kicks it off with an awesome six-game slate that features four games that have a total over 235 points.

There are a few pieces of news to wait on, so DFS players must follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for Monday’s action.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Nikola Jokic: $11,700 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel

40.0% DraftKings Boom/42.6% FanDuel Boom

Priced cheaper than Giannis Antetokounmpo on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Nikola Jokic has the highest fantasy score in Stokastic’s projections, making him the clear-cut best pay up option on the slate. Jokic recorded his league-high 10th triple-double last game against a Cavaliers defense that leads the league in defensive rating this season. He can add to that triple-double total tonight against the Lakers, who continue to play without Anthony Davis. In the 15 games without Davis, the Lakers are allowing 120.1 points per game.

After a relatively slow start, the Nuggets are now fully healthy and have won 12 of their last 15 games. The Nuggets are double-digit home favorites, with the highest implied total on the slate at 125.5 points. This is the only game on the slate that has a total of over 240 points, which is a big reason why Jokic has the highest boom percentage for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Jokic has feasted on this Lakers frontcourt even when Davis was playing. In their three meetings this season, Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 12.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists and over 60 DraftKings points per game while shooting 58.3% from the field. Lock in the back-to-back MVP.

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NBA DFS Play: Immanuel Quickley: $6,200 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel

21.0% DraftKings Boom/16.8% FanDuel Boom

Looking in the mid-range, Knicks point guard Immanuel Quickley stands out as one of the better value plays on the slate. He ranks inside the top 10 in boom percentage on DraftKings despite half of the players being only center eligible. R.J. Barrett‘s status is very important for Quickley, who has averaged 42.2 minutes per game in the last six games that Barrett has missed. Monitor Stokastic’s starting lineups page to confirm Barrett’s status closer to lock, but he is doubtful to play tonight, which makes Quickley look enticing despite an inflated salary.

During that six-game stretch without Barrett, Quickley is averaging 39.9 DraftKings points per game and is stuffing the stat sheet in a variety of ways. His price tag has risen above $6,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, but Quickley is currently inside the top five on both sites in Stokastic’s ownership projections. Despite the Bucks-Knicks game having the lowest total on the slate (221.5), Quickley is going to be popular if Barrett is ruled out. Since he is playing this many minutes each game, it is tough to see Quickley not reaching value on both sites.

NBA DFS Fade: Jaylen Brown: $9,500 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Bust/46.1% FanDuel Bust

Priced at $9,500 on DraftKings and $9,000 on FanDuel, Jaylen Brown is the best fade candidate in the upper pricing tier. He has the highest bust percentage of anyone priced over $8,500 on either site. Brown has been scoring at a high rate, averaging a career-high 27 points per game, but recently that has been all he has done. Over the last five games, Brown is averaging 5.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game. With only 40.1 DraftKings points per game during that time, it is tough to justify paying this price tag for that type of production.

The Celtics remain the best team in the league (28-12 record), and they are 8.5-point home favorites against the Bulls tonight. Boston has won four straight home games, and the Bulls are just 8-12 on the road this season. The Bulls are playing better as of late, winning eight of their last 11 games, and they seem to have the answer to slow down Brown, but not Jayson Tatum. Tatum is averaging a double-double, with 30 points and 10.3 rebounds per game in the three games against the Bulls this season, while Brown is averaging 20.7 points, six rebounds, two assists and only 32 DraftKings points per game. Brown is the only player in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings that has an A grade on both sites but a D value on DraftKings and a C value on FanDuel. Fade the scoring-dependent guard tonight.

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