NBA DFS Fades & Booms: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Running into a Wall

Donovan Mitchell struck gold as the call last night, and today offers a small three-game slate. Giannis Antetokounmpo headlines this slate as the most expensive player by far on both DraftKings and FanDuel, as there are a variety of value to go around him to differentiate lineup builds.

There is not a lot of news to monitor currently, but with the NBA you truly never can feel comfortable. DFS players must follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of starting lineups tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for Tuesday’s action.

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NBA DFS Play: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $12,100 DraftKings/$12,300 FanDuel

23.0% DraftKings Boom/19.3% FanDuel Boom

No one really comes close to the ceiling that Giannis Antetokounmpo has on this slate. He is projected for nearly 6 more fantasy points than Jayson Tatum on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. Giannis is probable to play after missing last game against the Wizards, while Jrue Holiday is also probable after missing three straight games due to an illness. Even with Holiday back in the lineup, Giannis still has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the second highest on DraftKings on this small slate.

Khris Middleton remains out, which has shown to boost the ceiling for Giannis. His usage rate climbs to 39.5% and he is averaging 33 points and 12.3 rebounds without Middleton this season. The Bucks are 8-point home favorites against the Wizards, who just beat them by 23 points last game without Giannis and Holiday. No one touches the usage rate and production from Giannis on this slate, which is why he is projected for over 30% on both sites in Stokastic’s ownership projections.

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NBA DFS Play: Mike Conley: $5,300 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel

24.5% DraftKings Boom/12.4% FanDuel Boom

Mike Conley is one of the aforementioned value players worth exposure. He has played 30 minutes in four straight games, and backup point guard Collin Sexton will be out for at least a week due to a hamstring injury. Over that four-game stretch, Conley is averaging 12 points, eight assists and over 30 DraftKings points per game. Priced under $6,000 on both sites, Conley is a cheap way to get exposure to this very high 241.5-point game tonight. The Jazz are 3.5-point favorites implied for a slate-high 123 points.

The Jazz have fallen below .500 for the first time all season, losing four straight games. They have a chance to right the ship tonight against the Kings, who rank fourth in pace and 23rd in defensive rating this season. This is a great matchup for the Jazz to have a bounce-back game. Conley comes in with the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the sixth highest on FanDuel. Stokastic’s projections have Conley in line to play 29.5 minutes, and he has the best value by far on DraftKings and the second best on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Fade: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: $10,300 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Bust/50.1% FanDuel Bust

In a season where many studs are averaging career scoring highs, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is near the top of the list. He is averaging 30.8 points per game, which is over 6 more per game than last season, and he is still shooting an impressive 49.9% from the field. Gilgeous-Alexander is the reason the Thunder have 15 wins. However, over the last four games, Gilgeous-Alexander has posted a variety of fantasy scores. During that time, he has a high of 73.5 and a low of 28.5 DraftKings points, with two games falling right in between.

In a very difficult matchup against the Celtics, who rank seventh in defensive rating, it is hard to argue against this potentially being a bust game for Gilgeous-Alexander. He has the highest bust percentage on the slate among the pay-up options for both DraftKings and FanDuel, hovering around 50%. Gilgeous-Alexander is one of two players on this small slate that have an A grade and a C value on both sites in Stokastic’s NBA DFS Rankings. Even though he has the fourth-highest fantasy projection on both sites, Gilgeous-Alexander has a very strong negative value in Stokastic’s projections. With the tough matchup and high price tag, fade him tonight.

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