NBA DFS Fades & Booms: Zion Williamson's Not Worth Spending Up For

This week has been awesome if you are a fan of medium-sized slates. Friday features another one with nine games to choose from with three strong pay-up options and a variety of value to round out your lineups.

Friday always features plenty of news, so make sure to follow Stokastic’s starting lineups page to see who is in and out of the lineup tonight. This article features a mix of NBA DFS fades and boom candidates, driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool. Let’s look at some of the best NBA DFS picks for the slate.

Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today

NBA DFS Play: Giannis Antetokounmpo: $11,900 DraftKings/$11,900 FanDuel

47.8% DraftKings Boom/45.3% FanDuel Boom

Coming off of one of his best games of the year, Giannis Antetokounmpo is poised for another great game tonight as the Bucks host their border rival Timberwolves. Giannis had 45 points, a season-high 22 rebounds, and seven assists last game, while shooting an absurd 17 of 39 from the field. The Bucks were without Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday and that is the likely scenario once again tonight. Seeing Giannis unleashed against a Timberwolves team who ranks fifth in pace this season is going to be a fun show.

This is how good of a play Giannis is tonight. Not only does he have the highest boom percentage on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings, but he also ranks second in total value on FanDuel and third on DraftKings in our Stokastic projections. He is projected for the highest fantasy score by far on both sites, but at the same time is a great value play priced below $12,000 on each site. Giannis is by far the best pay-up option on the slate as the Bucks are 5.5-point home favorites despite playing without two of their top three starters.

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NBA DFS Play: Kristaps Porzingis: $8,700 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel

28.6% DraftKings Boom/28.3% FanDuel Boom

In the upper mid-range, Wizards big man Kristaps Porzingis looks like another strong play as he potentially will be playing without Bradley Beal once again. Beal has been in and out of the lineup recently, but Porzingis is still posting ceiling games whether he is playing or not. Over the last four games, Porzingis is averaging a double-double with 18.5 points, 10 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game. He is another stronger play on FanDuel where he comes in with the third-highest boom percentage, compared to the seventh-highest on DraftKings.

The Wizards will get the luxury of playing against the Magic who are going to be without many players over their next few games due to their altercation with the Pistons on Wednesday night. They already rank 26th in defensive rating this season, so even if they were healthy, it would be a great spot to get exposure to Porzingis. Not only do we need to monitor the status of Beal in our starting lineups page, but also it would be good to monitor the Magic injury report. This is already a great spot for Porzingis, but it could get better throughout the day.

Bet $5 on the NBA tonight and get $150 if your first pregame moneyline wager wins!

NBA DFS Play: Markelle Fultz: $6,000 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel

58.6% DraftKings Boom/42.8% FanDuel Boom

One of those Magic players who for sure is not serving a suspension is point guard Markelle Fultz. With a plethora of Magic players out tonight, Fultz will likely be one of the key contributors for a team that has won eight of their last 11 games. Fultz currently has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel behind Giannis. Our Stokastic projections have Fultz in line to play 36.4 minutes as he is the best value play on both sites. This is another play who could look even better as the day progresses.

It has been a bit of a rollercoaster ride for Fultz as he is in his sixth season in the league. This seems like his best season yet as Fultz is shooting a career-high 40% from behind the arc, while averaging double digit points, over five assists, and a career-high 3.9 rebounds per game. In his last eight games, Fultz has scored 47 or more DraftKings points in two of those games displaying his upside. During that time he is averaging 32.7 points per game, so it shouldn’t be surprising how amazing he looks on this slate with a depleted Magic roster.

NBA DFS Fade: Zion Williamson: $9,800 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel

48.0% DraftKings Bust/54.6% FanDuel Bust

There are not many studs who have a high bust percentage on this slate, but Zion Williamson seems to have the highest on both DraftKings and FanDuel among the pay-up options. Williamson missed three-straight games before returning to action last game, but didn’t miss a beat. He scored a career-high 43 points while shooting 14 of 21 from the field and 14 of 19 from the charity stripe. Despite scoring 43 points, Williamson only finished with 56.75 DraftKings points, which seems pretty low for pouring in that many points.

There are two players on this slate that have an A grade and a C value on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA DFS Rankings. That would be Williamson and Pascal Siakam. It is tough to fade Siakam who has looked amazing recently, but Williamson has still shown the ability to bust more times than not. The Pelicans will continue to be without Brandon Ingram, which does boost the ceiling for Williamson. However, playing against Joel Embiid and the 76ers who rank second in defensive rating and play at the fourth-slowest pace is not a good game environment for Williamson. Fade Williamson in this difficult matchup.

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