NBA DFS Leverage & Optimizer Picks: Antetokounmpo Leading the Way

The NBA is offering up a 10-game DFS slate this Sunday, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including Giannis Antetokounmpo, to help you build optimal NBA DFS lineups.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | March 5

In a rare case of the slate’s top projected player also being the top leverage play, Giannis Antetokounmpo couldn’t look any better in his matchup against the Washington Wizards.

Matched up against a Washington team that ranks 30th in the NBA against opposing power forwards, Giannis is primed to shine and with a price tag of $12,400 on DraftKings, he’s an elite ‘spend up to be contrarian’ type of play on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Even cheaper on FanDuel at $12,000, Antetokounmpo isn’t getting nearly enough love, as only 10.90% of lineups are expected to roster him. In a great spot against the Wizards with Khris Middleton out tonight as Milwaukee is on a back-to-back, Giannis stands out as a building-block type play, especially in tournaments. He is currently projected to be optimal 19.00% of the time on DraftKings and 15.20% of the time on FanDuel, offering really strong leverage across both sites.

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Another player going under looked tonight is Orlando guard/forward Franz Wagner. Priced at only $6,000 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel, Wagner isn’t at the ownership he deserves on either site. While he can’t come close to Giannis in terms of raw production, Wagner is right there with the Greek Freak as far as leverage goes across both sites.

In an outstanding spot against the Portland Trail Blazers, Wagner is projected to be optimal 14.70% of the time on DraftKings and 27.60% of the time on FanDuel. Despite his high optimality percentages, NBA DFS players aren’t getting to the former University of Michigan star enough, as he is projected to be only 10.40% owned on DraftKings and 21.50% owned on FanDuel. While Wagner is more of a solid player than a spectacular one, he offers surprisingly good leverage on both sites and there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments tonight.

On the flip side, Nic Claxton rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading in GPP’s. At only $6,300 on DraftKings, Claxton is projected to find himself in 44.40% of lineups with an optimality percentage of 35.20%.

While Claxton’s affordable price and a matchup with Charlotte will make him a popular value tonight, it might be wise to avoid him in large-field tournaments.

Situations to Monitor

Multiple players have picked up questionable tags for tonight’s action as Milwaukee, Washington, Houston, and San Antonio are all on back-to-backs. They include: Jalen Brunson, Keldon Johnson, Malcolm Brogdon, Devin Vassell, Ivica Zubac, Deni Avdija and Malaki Branham

NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock show on YouTube at 5 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.

Author

Matthew Belman

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.