NBA DFS Leverage Picks and Optimizer Plays: Target DeMar DeRozan on Tonight’s Slate

Coming off a monster 11-game slate on Friday, Saturday’s slate is much lighter, with only four on the docket. This article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high-and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in DFS tournaments. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for today, including DeMar DeRozan and Herbert Jones.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

Starting off, DeMar DeRozan is in a great spot against the Jazz and looks to be severely under-owned, with only 16.30% of rosters expected to have him on DraftKings. As of this writing, Durant looks like one the top options DFS players can look to for leverage tonight.

DeRozan continues to play huge minutes and is averaging a solid 42.3 DraftKings points per game. Despite that, NBA DFS players are seemingly overlooking him for other big-name stars, like Luka Doncic and LeBron James. While he is getting more love on FanDuel, showing up in 33.5% of lineups, he still projects to be under-owned at a very affordable $8,800 price tag. With the Bulls 1.5-point underdogs in a game with a 238.5-point total, DeRozan couldn’t ask to be in a better spot, and he is currently projected to be optimal 20.70% of the time on DraftKings and 35.0% of the time on FanDuel, offering strong leverage on both sites.

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Herbert Jones is also falling through the cracks. Priced at $4,700 on DraftKings and $5,200 on FanDuel, Jones should play a ton tonight as the main defender on Luka Doncic. There’s a lot to like about him on both sites. While he isn’t an All-Star, the Pelicans will need Jones as Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram remain out. Right there with DeRozan as one of the top leverage plays on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jones is the prototypical cog in the machine in all formats. Jones is projected to be optimal 26.60% of the time on DraftKings and 31.00% of the time on FanDuel. He is also only projected for 19.7% ownership on DraftKings and 27.9% on FanDuel and makes for a potential core building block in both cash games and GPPs.


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On the other side, Naji Marshall is rating poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading. At only $5,000 on DraftKings Marshall is projected to be in 21.9% of rosters while his optimal percentage is only 15.7%. Marshall’s affordable price will make him a popular value tonight, but with other value players like Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III going under-owned, it might be wise to stay away from him in large field tournaments.

Situations to Monitor

With only four games on tap, the primary situation to monitor is that of Kings guard Malik Monk. At only $4,500 on DraftKings Monk is surely in play if he suits up for a good spot against the Lakers, and if he sits, players like Kevin Huerter and Davion Mitchell look slightly more appealing.

Of course, the NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night we get unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are sometimes less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic NBA Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows on YouTube at 4:45 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.

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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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