NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Anthony Edwards Playing Without Towns

On tap for Wednesday is a huge 13-game slate, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Wednesday, Nov. 30.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

For the first time this season, the Timberwolves will be without Karl-Anthony Towns (ankle), which has Stokastic projecting Anthony Edwards for over 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. That being said, he has so many things going in his favor that making Edwards one of your core plays and finding different spots of your lineup to be contrarian is the best strategy. First off, at only $8,000 on both sites, Edwards is underpriced for the role he is going to command without Towns. In the 170 minutes Edwards has played with Towns off the court this season, his usage has increased five percentage points to a team-high 31.9%, while his assist rate has also risen 3.5 percentage points to 19.3%. With this expanded role, Edwards scores 1.24 DraftKings points per minute, which is a notable upgrade for his 1.1 DraftKings points per minute average for the season. Next is Edwards’ matchup. He will be at home and competing in a fast-paced setting against the Grizzlies. Both Minnesota and Memphis rank inside the top 12 in pace this season, and not only does this contest carry the third highest total on the board (232.5 points), but the Grizzlies are also only favored by 2.5 points, which is the second smallest spread of this 13-game slate. Even with Towns available, Edwards lit Memphis up for 45.5 DraftKings points earlier this month, and his ceiling is well over 50 fantasy points with Towns absent this time around.

As for some lower-owned, expensive players to roster with Edwards, Nikola Jokic is a mouthwatering option with Stokastic projecting the two-time MVP for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Michael Porter Jr. (heel) will be out and the Nuggets will be hosting the Rockets. In this same exact situation Monday, Jokic posted a near triple-double of 59.5 DraftKings points in only 27 minutes of work, due to the Nuggets running away with a blowout win. A lopsided victory is possible for Denver again tonight, with them favored 11.5 points, but if the Nuggets win by a large margin, it will likely be due to a huge performance from Jokic. With Porter off the court this season, Jokic has supplied 1.7 DraftKings, attributed to his usage and rebound rates rising 1.7 and 3.8 percentage points, respectively. Houston ranks 28th in defensive efficiency and the Nuggets’ implied team total is the second highest on the slate (121.75 points). Jokic is averaging 63.4 DraftKings points per home game when the Nuggets have an implied team total of at least 115.

De’Aaron Fox is also a very interesting target for GPPs, with Stokastic slating him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Fox has been a disappointment over the last week, but is in a perfect bounce back spot tonight at home against the Pacers. Sacramento and Indiana are both top 10 in pace this season, and the Kings’ implied team total is the highest on the slate (123.5 points). Furthermore, by over 10 points, this contest’s total is the largest on the board (242.5 points), and having exposure to this shootout is a must tonight. Fox leads the Kings with a 29% usage rate and 1.31 DraftKings points per minute this season and should be highly motivated for this duel with former teammate Tyrese Haliburton. Fox owns a career average of 49.2 DraftKings points per game when playing at home in total of at least 240 points (five games) and is rating as a top-12 option on the slate in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

Value Tier

With Towns unavailable, Kyle Anderson is expected to be over 40% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. Anderson is likely to start in this situation, but his usage isn’t going to see any notable upgrade and the likely return of Jaden McDaniels (questionable, illness) certainly hurts Anderson’s playing time. Even with Towns off the court this season, Anderson only handles a 15.3% usage rate, giving him a shaky floor as a fantasy asset. With the massive ownership coming Anderson’s way, fading him in GPPs is the right call. For both DraftKings and FanDuel, Anderson carries the worst leverage score on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

Conversely, Zach Collins is a chalky value play worth playing. The Spurs will be without their starting frontcourt of Jakob Poeltl (knee) and Jeremy Sochan (quad) tonight against the Thunder. Collins should start at center in this situation and is far too cheap for his upside. Due to slight increases to all his rates, Collins is leading the Spurs with 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with Poeltl and Sochan off the floor this season. On top of leading the league in pace, Oklahoma City is an elite spot for big men, with the club giving up the most rebounds and fourth most points in the paint this season. This game’s total ranks second on the slate (231.5 points) and with over 20 minutes of action, Collins should destroy his $4,500 price tag. Collins is averaging 28.3 DraftKings points per game when he plays at least 20 minutes.

While an appealing value play on both sites, Collin Sexton is a terrific target on DraftKings, with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership. Mike Conley (leg) will miss his sixth straight and as the Jazz’s replacement starting point guard, Sexton has supplied 28.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes per game in these last five. He has a 23.4% usage rate and is scoring 0.9 DraftKings points per minute this season, and while he will be going against a Clippers team that ranks fourth in defensive efficiency, they are playing their game in two nights and will be without both Kawhi Leonard (knee) and Paul George (hamstring). The Jazz carry an implied team total of 115.75 points, and Sexton should eclipse 30 fantasy points tonight.

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Situations to Monitor

Jaylen Brown (neck) is questionable tonight after sitting out Monday’s win over the Hornets. Regardless of tonight’s poor matchup with the Heat, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency, Jayson Tatum would be a great pay-up option if Brown sits that might not be aggressively owned given the less-than-ideal spot. Tatum is averaging 59.5 DraftKings points per game in the two Brown has missed this season and his usage rises 3.6 percentage points to 35.9%, resulting 1.5 DraftKings points per minute, with Brown off the floor. Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon would also be enticing value plays that could get overlooked against this tough Heat defense. Smart has scored over 50 DraftKings points in both games Brown has sat this season and Brogdon ranks second only to Tatum in usage (28.3%) and DraftKings points per minute with Brown off the court this season (1.2).

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (questionable, hip) is also a player that could alter this slate. The guard ranks sixth in the league usage rate (32.4%) and his absence would likely thrust Tre Mann into a starting gig, making him an excellent punt in this game against the Spurs that sports the second highest total on the slate (231.5 points). With Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor this season, Mann provides 0.9 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.4% usage rate. Josh Giddey and Luguentz Dort are the only two players ahead of Mann in terms of usage with Gilgeous-Alexander off the court this season, at 28.7% and 26.8%, respectively, and would also be outstanding options if the Thunder are without their star player.

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