NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Ball Is in Anthony Edwards' Hands

Wednesday night delivers an 11-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Wednesday, Dec. 7.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

Hovering around 20% projected ownership for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections, Pascal Siakam is expected to be the most popular lucrative spend on the slate. However, competing against a Lakers team that ranks fifth in pace and is playing their game in two nights, Siakam is a terrific value. Leading the Raptors with a 30.1% usage rate this season, he is contributing 1.4 DraftKings points per minute. Toronto carries their highest implied team total of the season tonight (119.25 points) and Siakam has been a stud when playing an implied team total of at least 110 points this season, providing 52.3 DraftKings points per game (seven games).

Anthony Edwards isn’t expected to be overly popular tonight according to Stokastic’s projections and is a great target for GPPs tonight against the Pacers. Both Minnesota and Indiana rank inside the top 5 in pace this season and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (237 points). Furthermore, the Timberwolves’ implied team total is the second largest on the board (120.75 points) despite not having Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) available, setting up Edwards for a massive night. He has led the Timberwolves with 51.5 DraftKings points per game in these past two with Towns sidelined and is generating 1.3 DraftKings points per minute with Towns off the floor this season, behind a team-high 30.1% usage rate, which is a 3.2 percentage point lift from his average for the season.

Slated for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel according Stokastic’s projections, Zion Williamson is also an elite option for GPPs. Brandon Ingram (toe) will remain out, and Williamson is averaging 52.4 DraftKings points per game with Ingram out, including two efforts over 60 DraftKings points. Williamson leads the Pelicans with a 30% usage rate and 1.4 DraftKings points per minute with Ingram off the floor this season and meets a Pistons club that ranks second to last in defensive efficiency and is on the second leg of a back-to-back. This Detroit squad is yielding the fourth-most points in the paint, which is great news for Williamson, with 94% of his shots coming in the paint this season. New Orleans’ implied team total ranks fourth on the slate (120 points) and Williamson has 60 fantasy point upside in this juicy spot.

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Value Tier

The Warriors are the primary source of value for this 11-game slate, with Stephen Curry (ankle), Andrew Wiggins (adductor) and Draymond Green (hip) ruled out. In this situation, Stokastic is projecting Jonathan Kuminga and Jordan Poole to finish first and second in terms of ownership tonight, respectively.

That said, both are near must-plays at their low salaries and perfect examples of good chalk. Since the start of last season, Poole has led the Warriors with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute and a 30.9% usage rate with Curry, Wiggins and Green off the court, which is a 5.2 increase from his average. Furthermore, Poole’s assist rate has jumped 10.0 percentage points in this scenario. Despite the Warriors being down three starters, tonight’s matchup against the Jazz carries the third highest total on the slate (234.5 points). Poole should effortlessly beat his salaries in this environment and brings a ceiling around 45 fantasy points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

As for Kuminga, he should start tonight and Stokastic is projecting him for nearly 35 minutes of work, giving him a legitimate chance to return 10-times value at his cheap price tags. Over the last two seasons, Kuminga has seen a 24.5% usage rate and produced one DraftKings points per minute with Curry, Wiggins and Green off the floor. By a wide gap, Kuminga is the No. 1 value on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. Klay Thompson is also projecting to be a top-5 most-rostered player on the slate with the Warriors understaffed, but is the least appealing of him, Poole and Kuminga in terms of value, and is the best player to fade of the trio.

Thompson’s usage has barely moved with Curry, Wiggins and Green off the floor over the last two seasons, and this Utah club he is facing is allowing the least made 3-pointers per game in the league. This season, 63% of Thompson’s attempts have come from beyond the arc. Lastly, Donte DiVincenzo is an enticing punt for GPPs, with Stokastic slating him for single-digit ownership. Starter or not, DiVincenzo should see 25-plus minutes tonight, giving him plenty of time to beat his low salaries. With Curry, Wiggins and Green off the floor, DiVincenzo’s usage and assist rates increase 3.5 and 9.5 percentage points, respectively, and he supplies 0.8 DraftKings points per minute.

Stokastic is forecasting Jaylen Nowell for single-digit ownership tonight, and he is particularly appealing at only $4,500 on DraftKings. With Towns missing the last two, Nowell has benefited greatly from the Timberwolves opting to more small ball lineups, with 33.5 DraftKings points in 27 minutes per game. He has closed the game with the starters in both of these last two contests sans Towns and ranks second only to Edwards in usage with Towns off the floor this season at 27.4%. Nowell produces 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with this expanded role and is averaging 28 DraftKings points per game when he logs over 20 minutes this season.

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Situations to Monitor

After missing the last two games, both Tyrese Haliburton (groin) and T.J. McConnell (illness) are questionable tonight against the Timberwolves. Andrew Nembhard will be a great target if both Haliburton and McConnell remain out tonight, and he could get overlooked given his price tags have reached new career highs. In these past two, Nembhard has thrived as the Pacers starting point guard, scoring 37 DraftKings points against the Blazers, and erupting for 64.5 DraftKings points against the Warriors. Overall, Nembhard is averaging 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with McConnell and Haliburton off the floor.

Now, if McConnell is available and Haliburton is not, McConnell will be a great GPP target given he should see a large role as one of the best remaining ball handlers on the Pacers. He is averaging 1 DraftKings points per minute this season and 26.6 DraftKings points per game the last 10 times he has played over 20 minutes. Lastly, if Haliburton is available without limitations, he will be an elite GPP target that would likely be overlooked given the injury concerns, while McConnell and Nembhard will be very poor values. As noted above, this matchup with the Timberwolves presents the second highest total on the slate (237.5 points) and in totals of at least 230 points this season, Haliburton is scoring 46 DraftKings points per game (14 games).

Continuing with the Pacers, Myles Turner (hamstring) and Jalen Smith (knee) are both questionable in the frontcourt, and if both centers were to sit, Isaiah Jackson would become one of the best punt plays on the slate as Indiana’s projected starting center. This season, he is generating 1.1 DraftKings points per minute and 29 DraftKings when he cracks 20 minutes.

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