NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Devin Booker Alone Among Suns Studs

After Thursday’s one-game slate, Friday delivers a 11-game slate for DFS players to attack, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Dec. 2.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

With ownership among high-end players extremely spread out for this 11-game slate – no player over $8,000 is projected to be over 15% owned on either DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections – there are some low-owned studs that need to be attacked in GPPs. Slated for around 5% ownership on both sites, Stephen Curry is one of the best lucrative options to consider, with the Warriors boasting the highest implied team total on the slate against the Bulls (122.25 points). With a team-high 30.6% usage rate this season, Curry is producing 1.6 DraftKings points per minute. As always, his shooting has been stellar, knocking down three-pointers at a 44% clip and this Chicago defense Curry is facing has been weak on the perimeter, allowing their opponents to hit three-pointers at the second-highest rate this season (38%). The sharpshooter is generating 55 DraftKings points per game when playing behind an implied team total of 120 points or more over the last two seasons (10 games) and has flashed massive upside this season, exceeding 60 DraftKings points in 25% of his starts.

Devin Booker is also an appealing spend for GPPs, with the Suns carrying the third-largest implied team total on the board (120 points). Chris Paul (heel) will remain out and Booker has caught fire with him sidelined, scoring 63.6 DraftKings points per game over his last three starts, with a 37.1% usage rate and while shooting 56% from the field. Booker has topped 50 DraftKings in 6 of 11 starts without Paul this season and is averaging 1.3 DraftKings points per minute without him. Ranking 28^th in defensive efficiency and giving up the fourth most made three-pointers per game, Houston presents a gorgeous spot for Booker and Stokastic is only projecting him to be around 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, despite his incredible current form.

Lastly, C.J. McCollum is worth a look for large tournaments, with Stokastic projecting him for low ownership in his return from a four-game absence due to an illness. While the Pelicans will be getting McCollum back, Brandon Ingram (toe) and Hebert Jones (ankle) are out, putting more weight on McCollum’s shoulders. With Ingram off the court this season, McCollum provides 1.2 DraftKings points per minute, thanks to his assist rate increasing 7.4 percentage points. Tonight McCollum meets a Spurs team that ranks dead last in defensive efficiency and eighth in pace. New Orleans’ implied team total is the fourth highest on the slate (119.75 points) and McCollum is underpriced for his upside in this spot, at less than $8,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Value Tier

While projected to be the most rostered player on the slate in Stokastic’s projections, Collin Sexton is a tough value to ignore. Mike Conley (leg) will miss his seventh in a row and the Jazz are hosting the Pacers, which is the highest total on the slate (238 points). Sexton has surpassed 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four as the replacement starting point guard for Conley and averages one DraftKings points per minute with a 23% usage rate with Conley off the floor this season. Indiana ranks fifth in pace and Sexton should have zero issues out producing his sub $6,000 salaries on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.

The Spurs are also a popular source of value tonight, with Jakob Poeltl (knee) and Jeremy Sochan (quad) out. In this situation, both Zach Collins and Keita Bates-Diop are both expected to be popular on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Collins disappointed Wednesday as the Spurs starting center, with only 22 DraftKings points against the Thunder, but played a very encouraging 27.1 minutes, which set a new season high for him by nearly four minutes. With this type of playing time, Collins should bounce back after Wednesday’s letdown and is a tough value to overlook. In the 161 minutes he has played with Poeltl and Sochan off the court this season, Collins has led the Spurs with 1.2 DraftKings points per minute. Bates-Diop on the other hand is worth fading. Even with Poeltl and Sochan off the floor this season, Bates-Diop’s has only averaged 0.7 DraftKings points per minute. Especially going against Zion Williamson, Bates-Diop brings minimal upside to the table and isn’t worth rostering with the heavy ownership.

As for lower-owned value plays to consider, Dyson Daniels is standing out in Stokastic’s projections, with Ingram and Jones unavailable for the Pelicans. After Jones got hurt early in the second half Wednesday, Daniels didn’t leave the floor for the rest of the game and finished with a career-high 39.5 DraftKings points across 31.2 minutes in a tough matchup against the Raptors, who rank eighth in defensive efficiency. While McCollum’s return hurts all the Pelicans’ usage rates, Daniels should still be able to beat his cheap price tags with ease, as the likely replacement starter for Jones in this prime matchup with the Spurs, who are dead last in defensive efficiency. In the 148 minutes Daniels has played with Ingram and Jones off the floor this season, he is contributing one DraftKings points per minute. Additionally, Daniels is averaging 24.2 DraftKings points per game when he cracks 20 minutes.

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Situations to Monitor

The Hawks present a very crowded injury report tonight, with Trae Young (shoulder) and Clint Capela (foot) questionable, while John Collin (ankle) and De’Andre Hunter (hip) have been ruled out. First off, if Young sits, Dejounte Murray would be an incredible option. In the lone start he has made sans Young, Murray destroyed a league-best Bucks defense for 59 DraftKings points. Overall, with Young off the floor, Murray’s usage and assist rates have risen 4.8 and 13.7 percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. Now, if Capela sits, Onyeka Okongwu would start at center and be forced to play huge minutes with this Atlanta frontcourt so shorthanded and with Nikola Jokic on the other side. This season, Okongwu is averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute and 24 DraftKings points per game when he has logged over 20 minutes. Also, A.J. Griffin is a solid punt play from the Hawks as the likely replacement starter for Hunter, and he would see obvious boosts if either Capela or Young sat. With Hunter and Collins off the floor this season, Griffin is scoring 0.9 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.5% usage rate. Plus, he is averaging 31.3 DraftKings points per game when he plays at least 25 minutes.

Tyrese Haliburton (questionable, groin) is also a very important name to monitor tonight. As noted above, the Pacers – Jazz matchup boasts the highest total on the slate (238 points), and if Haliburton misses his first game of the season, T.J. McConnell will enter must-play status. He is scoring one DraftKings points per minute and 28 DraftKings points per game when he plays over 20 minutes this season. Now, if Haliburton is available, he will be an incredible GPP play, as his ownership will likely be low with the injury concerns. In totals of at least 230 points this season, Haliburton is eclipsing 50 DraftKings points at a 46% clip.

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