NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Fade DeMar DeRozan Based on Projections

On tap for Tuesday is a five-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Dec. 20.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 20

High-End Tier

For tonight’s five-game slate, we need to be building around Nikola Jokic. This short slate is lacking star power after the two-time MVP and Stokastic is projecting Jokic to only be owned by roughly 20% of the field on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, which is way too for his massive ceiling, which is the highest on the slate by over 10 fantasy points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. As of late, Jokic has been making a serious case that he should earn his third consecutive MVP award this season, scoring over 80 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts. The common denominator for these three huge outbursts is that they all came on his home floor. Throughout Jokic’s career, he has notoriously been a far better fantasy asset at home and this season has been no exception, with the center averaging nearly 10 DraftKings PPG more in Denver than when on the road. For tonight, Jokic will be at home and playing way up in pace against a Grizzlies’ club that ranks ninth in pace, compared to the Nuggets, who rank 21st. This contest’s total is the highest on the slate (234 points) and the Grizzlies are only favored by 1.5-points, which is the smallest spread on the board. Jokic is amassing 63.1 DraftKings PPG when competing in a total of at least 225 points at home this season (nine games) and is a lock to lead this short slate in fantasy points scored.

While Jordan Poole is projected to be a top-10 most rostered player on the slate, he is tough to overlook tonight and is a player we should be going overweight on. Stephen Curry (shoulder) and Andrew Wiggins (adductor) will remain out tonight, keeping Poole in a huge role as the Warriors’ starting point guard. In the same situation Sunday, the guard erupted for a season-best 55.75 DraftKings points vs. the Raptors. With Curry and Wiggins off the court this season, Poole leads Golden State with a 34.6% usage rate – which is a 6.2 percentage point upgrade from his season average – and 1.2 DraftKings PPM. Tonight, Poole will be facing the Knicks, and this should be a very up-tempo environment, with both these teams ranking inside the top-15 in pace this season. In this spot, Poole is an excellent combination of safety and upside that needs to be attacked.

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Conversely, DeMar DeRozan is a popular option – projected to be a top-seven most rostered player on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections – that is worth fading tonight. The forward is in a brutal spot, matching up with a Heat club that ranks seventh in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace. The Bulls’ implied team total is the second lowest on the slate (109.5 points) and they are essentially at full strength right now, so DeRozan isn’t in a situation to benefit from any missing teammates. The veteran is rating as a bottom-five option on the slate in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool and is worth avoiding with the heavy ownership. A compelling direct pivot at small forward is Lauri Markkanen. The forward has faced four top-10 defenses in a row but gets a Pistons’ defense tonight that ranks second-to-last in efficiency. Markkanen ranks second in usage on the Jazz this season (24.1%) and is collecting 1.1 DraftKings PPM. This tilt’s total ranks second on the slate (229.5 points) and in totals of at least 225 points this season, Markkanen has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in 12 of 22 starts.

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Value Tier

If paying up for Jokic tonight, we need to find some cheap value plays to help us fit in the superstar. Forecasted for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections, Victor Oladipo is a very interesting target with Kyle Lowry (knee) missing his third straight. Oladpoio missed the first of these two contests, but in the second one, he received a season-high 34 minutes and closed the game with the starters, resulting in 23.5 DraftKings points vs. the Spurs. Oladipo is supplying 0.8 DraftKings PPM this season and should see 30+ minutes off the bench tonight against a Bulls’ defense that ranks 21st in efficiency. For the last 10 times the veteran has logged over 25 minutes, Oladipo is providing 31 DraftKings PPG.

Ty Jerome is also a compelling punt, that is expected to come with low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections. With Curry and Wiggins unavailable for the last two, Jerome has seen a stable role off the bench for the Warriors, producing 21.3 DraftKings points in 18 minutes per game. Now, Donte DiVincenzo (illness) will join Curry and Wiggins on the sidelines, opening more playing time for Jerome, possibly with a starting role. Even if he doesn’t start, Jerome should handle 20-25 minutes, which is more than enough time for him to beat his low-price tags. In the 126 minutes Jerome played with Curry, Wiggins and DiVincenzo off the floor this season, the guard is generating 0.8 DraftKings PPM.

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Situations to Monitor

Jamal Murray (knee) is questionable tonight and if the guard ends up sitting, Jokic would become an even stronger spend and enter must-play territory. Michael Porter Jr. (doubtful, heel) is also expected to be out and with the forward and Murray off the court this season, Jokic provides 1.7 DraftKings PPM with a team-high 32.5% usage rate, which is a 2.9 percentage point lift from his season average. Also, Bones Hyland would operate as the Nuggets’ primary ball handler if Murray sat, starter or not, and would be an elite value play to attack in this slate-high total vs. the Grizzlies (234 points). Hyland ranks second on the team in usage at 29% with Murray and Porter Jr. off the floor this season, resulting in 1.1 DraftKings PPM and is averaging 32.6 DraftKings PPG for the three instances he has played without Murray this year.

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