Friday presents a huge 10-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Dec. 9.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
Coming off a season-best 69.25 DraftKings points vs. the Hawks, Julius Randle is expected to be the most popular high-end option for this 10-game slate, with an ownership projection over 20% for both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. While his outburst against Atlanta was impressive, it was an outlier performance that we shouldn’t be chasing. Before that start, Randle had scored less than 40 DraftKings points in three consecutive starts and tonight, he will be facing a Hornets’ club that held him to only 33 DraftKings points in a large 40 minutes of work in October. With the Knicks essentially at full strength, the chances of Randle going off again are slim and as a negative leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, the forward is an easy fade.
A stud that is rating positively as a leverage target in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool is Luka Doncic and having some exposure to the superstar is a must tonight in this marquee matchup with the Bucks. This game’s total is up to 224.5 points and the Mavs will be at home. Ranking third in the league in usage rate this season (38.2%), Doncic is generating 1.6 DraftKings PPM and he has been a dramatic 5.9 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor than when on the road this year. Doncic is generating an insane 68.2 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has competed in a total of at least 220 points at home and has the highest ceiling on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. Specifically, the Slovenian is projected to be less than 5% owned on DraftKing tonight according to Stokastic’s projections.
Another lucrative option that is rating highly in terms of leverage score in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool is Tyrese Haliburton. The guard just returned from a two-game absence and showed no signs of rust, delivering 59.5 DraftKings points across 36 minutes vs. the Wolves. Combine his 23.9% usage rate and league-high 50.8% assist rate, Haliburton is generating 1.4 DraftKings PPM this season. Tonight, the guard will be at home – where he has been 4.9 DraftKings PPG better than on the road this season – and competing in the second highest total on the slate vs. the Wizards (233 points). In totals of 230 points or higher at home this season, Haliburton is amassing 51 DraftKings PPG, eclipsing 50 DraftKings points in 4/6 starts.
Value Tier
Opposite of Haliburton in this projected shootout, Deni Avdija is projected to be a top-five most rostered player on the slate with Bradley Beal (hamstring) out. Considering the environment he is in and Avdija’s success sans Beal, he is good chalk we should be eating tonight, especially with power forward lacking many appealing plays. Avdija is producing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Beal off the court this season and 28.4 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game for the seven contests the shooting guard has missed. Also, keep an eye on the status of Kristaps Porzingis (questionable, ankle), as his absence would result in even more work for Avdija and further solidify him as a core play.
Conversely, Bogdan Bogdanovic is a chalky value play – projecting to be a top-five most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections – that is worth skipping tonight. The reason for his popularity is that the Hawks will be without Dejounte Murray (ankle) and John Collins (ankle). His usage is going to be encouraging in this situation, but Bogdanovic just made his season debut three games ago due to a knee injury and has yet to play over 25 minutes in a game this year. De’Andre Hunter’s (questionable, hip) potential return and the impressive play of rookie AJ Griffin, who has been starting over Bogdanovic, are also significant factors that severely limit the wing’s upside. Speaking of Griffin, he is the perfect pivot off Bogdanovic, at similar price points and with much less expected ownership in Stokastic’s projections. The rookie is ahead of Bogdanovic on the depth chart right now and should remain a starter tonight and play 30+ minutes, even if Hunter returns. With a 20.4% usage rate, Griffin is contributing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with Murray and Collins off the floor and 28.4 DraftKings PPG for the six occasions he has logged at least 25 minutes this season, scoring at least 25 DraftKings points in five of those contests.
Situations to Monitor
As noted above, on top of Beal being out, the Wizards are listing Porzingis as questionable and if the forward also sits, Kyle Kuzma would be a popular play worth embracing. Despite an extremely poor matchup vs. the Mavs, who rank dead last in pace, Kuzma exploded for a season-high 62.75 DraftKings points in the lone game both Beal and Porzingis have missed this season. Overall, in the 196 minutes Kuzma has played with Beal and Porzingis off the floor this season, Kuzma has led Washington with 1.2 DraftKings PPM and a 31.6% usage rate, which is 5.6 percentage point upgrade from his season average. Now, if Porzingis suits up, he will be an intriguing GPP play, that shouldn’t be popular given the injury concerns. With Beal inactive Wednesday, Porzingis delivered 50.75 DraftKings points vs. the Bulls, and he has now recorded at least 42 DraftKings points in five consecutive starts. With Beal off the court, Porzingis’ usage rises 2.6 percentage points to 30.9% and he supplies 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
Donovan Mitchell (questionable, leg) is also a very important name to monitor, as his absence would make Darius Garland a near must-play vs. a Kings’ club that ranks sixth in pace and 22nd defensive efficiency. The guard’s usage increases five percentage points to 32.3% with Mitchell off the floor, resulting in 1.3 DraftKings PPM, and in the one start Garland has made without Mitchell this season, he erupted for a season-best 70.5 DraftKings points.
On the other side of this matchup, De’Aaron Fox (foot) is questionable. While this is a terrible matchup vs. the Cavs, who lead the league in defensive efficiency, Davion Mitchell would have to be considered as the expected starter for Fox. Mitchell scores 0.8 DraftKings PPM with Fox off the floor this season and is averaging 20 DraftKings PPG for the seven times he has seen over 25 minutes of work this year. Malik Monk would also be worth a flier if Fox is unavailable, with the veteran leading the Kings with a 31.9% usage rate with Fox off the court this season, lifting him to 1.3 DraftKings PPM. Given the tough matchup with Cleveland, both Mitchell and Monk could get overlooked tonight.
Lastly, Lauri Markkanen (illness) is questionable after sitting out Wednesday. The Jazz are hosting the Wolves tonight and this tilt’s total is the highest on the slate (235.5 points). Walker Kessler got the first start of his career with Markkanen out Wednesday and would be an elite value play in this slate-high total if Markkanen is unable to return. In that start Wednesday, Kessler flourished with 37.5 DraftKings points in 24 minutes vs. the Warriors. This season, the bigman is providing 1.1 DraftKings PPM and 24.4 DraftKings PPG for the six times he has cracked the 20-minute mark. Given this Jazz vs. Wolves’ matchup is the second to last of the night to tipoff, we likely won’t have word on Markkanen before roster lock, so Kessler shouldn’t be a common name in GPPs if Markkanen ends up sitting again.
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
