Tonight’s NBA slate features five games, and this article will analyze Stokastic’s ownership projections to see how to best handle high- and low-owned players in order to gain leverage in tournaments. Let’s get into today’s top NBA DFS leverage and value picks to help build optimal NBA DFS lineups, including Anthony Edwards.
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NBA DFS Value: Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | March 4
Despite there only being five games tonight, a few quality spend-up options stand out at both DraftKings and FanDuel. Minnesota’s small forward, Anthony Edwards, is going under-owned, and he looks like one of the top leverage plays on the slate.
In a great spot against a Sacramento team that gives up a ton of fantasy points to opposing small forwards, Edwards is projected to be the fourth highest-scoring player at DraftKings tonight. That makes perfect sense because Edwards is averaging 60 DraftKings points per game in two matchups against the Kings so far. While he’s projected to be 20.2% owned on DraftKings at $9,400, he’s going under-owned relative to his optimal percentage.
Even cheaper on FanDuel at $8,900, he’s still going under-owned even with 37.8% of lineups expected to roster him. As of this writing, Edwards is currently projected to be optimal 25.9% of the time on DraftKings and 42.9% of the time on FanDuel, so he offers strong leverage across both sites.
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Another player flying under the radar tonight is San Antonio’s backup center, Charles Bassey. Bassey has plenty of value at only $3,900 on DraftKings and $4,700 on FanDuel. While Bassey is more of a solid player than a spectacular one, he is right there with Edwards as leverage goes across both sites.
Despite playing in a great spot against a Houston defense that routinely gets torched by opposing big men, Bassey is projected for only 15.6% ownership on DraftKings and 20% ownership on FanDuel. Bassey is projected to be optimal 22% of the time on DraftKings and 25% of the time on FanDuel. While Bassey might not be the safest play on the slate, he offers surprisingly good leverage on both sites, and there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments.
On the other side of the coin, Bassey’s teammate Tre Jones rates poorly from a leverage perspective on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool and might be worth fading. At only $5,000 on DraftKings, Jones is projected to find himself in 16.3% of lineups with an optimal percentage of only 8%.
Assuming he starts, Jones is definitely in play at this price on DraftKings, but with other midrange players like Marvin Bagley III and Kevin Love going under-owned, it might be wise to avoid him in large-field tournaments.
Situations to Monitor
As of this writing, the only situation to monitor is that of Miami forward Jimmy Butler, who is listed as questionable after playing 33 minutes last night.
NBA injury news is always unpredictable, and it seems like every night there are unexpected scratches, sometimes at the last minute. That’s especially the case on weekends when beat reporters and staff are less aware of team situations. Tune into the Stokastic Live Before Lock show on YouTube at 6:30 p.m. ET for all of the up-to-date analysis as late NBA news breaks and changes to the best NBA DFS picks and plays.
