NBA DFS Projections Today: Brandon Ingram Just Too Cheap (February 7)

We have a bit of value on tonight’s six-game slate on DraftKings, but not a lot that we can be extremely confident about. With the trade deadline still looming, and several players currently listed as questionable, we may yet see some great options open up closer to lock.

Be sure to pay attention to news and check out the Stokastic Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows to hear great analysis of how the news changes the slate. And as always, Stokastic’s NBA DFS projections and Boom/Bust Tool are great resources to help make DraftKings lineups that project well and offer some leverage points on the field.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Feb. 7

High-End Tier

Nikola Jokic ($11,600) and the Nuggets do not appear to be giving my Timberwolves a free win again tonight. Sigh. Jokic is the highest projected player on the slate. He is projected for 29% ownership with a 43% chance of hitting his boom score and a 23% chance of being optimal, according to the Stokastic simulations.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800) has a nice positive leverage score against a Lakers team that is second in the league in pace of play and a below average in terms of defensive rating. He’s projected for 4% ownership with a 14% chance of booming and a 6% chance of being optimal.

Trae Young ($9,400) will project well for his salary if Dejounte Murray–currently questionable with a migraine headache–is unable to go.

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Mid-Tier

Edmond Sumner ($4,100) and Cameron Thomas ($5,200) remain some of our better mid-tier values for the depleted Nets. Sumner is projected for 61% ownership with a 39% chance of hitting his boom score and a 43% chance of being optimal. Thomas is projected for 53% ownership with a 33% chance of hitting his boom score and a 34% chance of being optimal.

Brandon Ingram ($7,100) is simply too cheap, especially against a Hawks team that is below average defensively and plays faster than league average. Ingram is projected for 52% ownership with a 48% chance of hitting his boom score and a 40% chance of being optimal.

Jonas Valanciunas ($5,700) plays unpredictable minutes, but could be a great value if he gets minutes. Valanciunas is projected for 24% ownership with a 27% chance of hitting his boom score and a 19% chance of being optimal.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,500) and John Collins ($5,400) are both fine values and great leverage plays who will look even better if Murray sits. With Murray projected in, Bogdanovic is projected for 4% ownership with a 6% chance of booming and a 12% chance of being optimal against the Pelicans. Collins is projected for 7% ownership with a 6% chance of booming and a 9% chance of being optimal.

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Value Tier

The value that we have currently is not great. There is a good chance that better value will open up throughout the night. As it stands, Jaylin Williams ($3,100), Jose Alvarado ($3,500), and Andre Drummond ($3,100) are among our top value options. Day’Ron Sharpe ($3,700) looks like a solid leverage option, as he projects for just 3% ownership with an 8% chance of being optimal.

These are just some of the top plays of the slate in terms of projection, value and leverage. Things can change in a hurry on an NBA slate, though, so remember to track the news throughout the day and take advantage of potential late-swap opportunities.

Author

Neil Orfield

Neil Orfield has been playing DFS regularly since 2013, but his success really started taking off in 2019 when he had a six figure payday with a hand built NFL lineup. The next day, he signed up for a Stokastic+ subscription with FantasyCruncher. Since then he has won an NFL milly and added six figure wins in XFL, MLB, and NBA. He has recently excelled at NFL Showdown, with many five- and six-figure wins since 2021.