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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Brook Lopez & Fred VanVleet




NBA DraftKings DFS daily fantasy basketball lineups NBA Playoff Game 5 cheat sheet. Awesemo's picks + projections for 7/1 | Brook Lopez.

Friday night delivers an eight-game slate, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks, including Brook Lopez, for Friday, Nov. 11.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

In Stokastic’s ownership projections, no stud is expected to gain significant attention tonight, as most DFS players will be deploying more balanced lineups. This is leaving some high-end players with very low expected ownership and creating some terrific leverage targets to consider up top.

Notably, Stephen Curry is only expected to be around 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. As the guard attempts to keep the Warriors afloat, Curry is producing 1.6 DraftKings points per minute and 56.2 DraftKings points per game this season, with a 30.6% usage rate. Tonight, the Warriors will be looking to pick up consecutive wins for the first time this season, after snapping a five-game losing streak with a win over the Kings on Monday. Despite facing a Cavaliers defense that ranks third in defensive efficiency, Golden State boasts the third highest implied team total on the slate (117.25 points) and this game’s total is second largest on the board (232 points). Furthermore, this is expected to be a nail-biter, with the Warriors as only 2.5-point home favorites. Curry has scored over 50 DraftKings points at a 58% clip in totals of at least 230 points over the last two seasons and owns a top-five leverage score on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

Dropping down a little lower, Fred VanVleet also needs to be included in your GPP pool with Stokastic forecasting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Pascal Siakam (adductor) will miss his fourth straight tonight and with him sidelined, VanVleet has generated 52.6 DraftKings points per game in his last three starts. In the 161 minutes VanVleet has played with Siakam off the court this season, his usage and assist rates have 5.9 and six percentage points, respectively, resulting in 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. On the menu for tonight is an up-tempo matchup against the Thunder, who rank third in pace, compared to the Raptors who rank 27th. VanVleet’s ceiling is way over 50 fantasy points in this spot and he is far too cheap at less than $9K on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

A front-court player that is getting overlooked for his upside tonight is Julius Randle. With Mitchell Robinson (ankle) out for the last three, Randle has benefited greatly, scoring 44.7 DraftKings points per game. Robinson will remain unavailable tonight and in the 206 minutes Randle has played without the center this season, his fantasy production has increased to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. Tonight, Randle gets a dream matchup against the Pistons, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency and are allowing the fourth most points in the paint. The Knicks’ implied team total is the fifth highest on the slate (116.5 points) and Randle shouldn’t be priced under $8K in this beautiful spot.

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Value Tier

With LeBron James (adductor) out tonight, Russell Westbrook is expected to be over 20% owned on both sites but is a player to be overweight on in GPPs, even though he will likely continue to come off the bench. This Lakers – Kings matchup carries the fourth highest total on the slate (230.5 points) and with James off the court this season, Westbrook has led the Lakers with 1.5 DraftKings points per minute, thanks to his assist rate increasing 12.1 percentage points. Westbrook has the potential for a triple-double tonight and is good chalk.

With Giannis Antetokounmpo (knee), Jrue Holiday (ankle) and Khris Middleton (wrist) all missing tonight, Bobby Portis and Jevon Carter are expected to be the most rostered players on the slate by a sizeable gap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While they are rating as strong values, staying clear of Portis and Carter makes sense, with them possibly being owned by half of the field tonight. With the Bucks also down their top three players Wednesday, Portis started, but disappointed with only 28.75 DraftKings points in the double OT win against the Thunder. Notably, the forward only played 25.75 regulation minutes, despite no foul trouble. Jevon Carter erupted for a career-best 62.5 DraftKings points in 44.5 minutes, including 35.4 regulation minutes. This score is obviously slightly inflated given the two extra periods and while Carter has a chance to still beat his new career high price tags tonight, expecting even half the performance he had Wednesday is unreasonable. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Carter only has a ceiling slightly over 30 fantasy points and his leverage score is the worst on the slate by a notable margin. With much less expected ownership, Brook Lopez is the best target from the Bucks tonight. It was the veteran who operated as the Bucks’ primary big man over Portis on Wednesday, leading the team in minutes, with 35.8 in regulation. Lopez is contributing 1.2 DraftKings points per minute with Antetokounmpo, Holiday and Middleton off the floor this season and brings a huge ceiling if he continues to see huge playing time.

A name that is standing out as a compelling GPP play with modest ownership coming his direction is Kevin Love. As noted above, this Cavaliers – Warriors matchup presents the second highest total on the slate (232 points) and a tight spread of 2.5-points. This is the largest total the Cavs have competed in this season and Love brings outstanding upside relative to his cheap price tags in this elite environment. Love is supplying 1.4 DraftKings points per minute this season and has scored at least 28 DraftKings points in four of his last six games.

Situations to Monitor

Chris Paul (questionable, heel) is the most important name to monitor tonight. If the guard misses his second straight game, Cameron Payne and Devin Booker would become terrific targets against the Magic, that might not be super chalky with their prices increasing to reflect Paul’s potential absence. With the point guard inactive Wednesday, Payne and Booker scored 46.5 and 59.5 DraftKings points against the Wolves, respectively. With Paul off the floor this season, Booker leads the Suns with a 30.7% usage rate and 1.23 DraftKings points per minute, while Payne ranks second, with a 27.8% usage rate and 1.1 DraftKings points per minute.

On the other side of this matchup, Paolo Banchero (ankle) is questionable and if the rookie sits, Chuma Okeke would likely get another start and would be an enticing value play that would likely get overlooked. While Okeke only posted 20.75 DraftKings points in the spot start for Banchero on Wednesday, Okeke saw a season-high 32 minutes and would likely have a much better outing tonight if that type of playing time continues sans Banchero and Cole Anthony (out, oblique). With these two players off the floor this season, Okeke is amassing 0.9 DraftKings points per minute.

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