Tuesday delivers a three-game slate, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Nov. 29.
NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays
High-End Tier
Even with Stokastic projecting Luka Doncic to be the most rostered player on the slate tonight, we need to be paying up for the superstar. The Mavs will be back home tonight after a three-game road trip and are in dire need of a win, as losers of four straight. They will be hosting the Warriors, who rank 22nd in defensive efficiency. Additionally, Golden State ranks second in pace, which is a massive upgrade for this Dallas club that ranks dead last in pace. This marquee matchup’s total is the highest of this short slate (228 points) and the Warriors are only 1.5-point favorites, which is tightest spread of the night. Furthermore, Dallas’ implied team total is set at 113.25 points, which is the second largest implied team total they have seen this season. Doncic ranks third in the league in usage this season (38.2%) and is generating 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Over the last two seasons, the Slovenian has notably been 7.3 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor compared to when on the road and has topped 60 DraftKings points at a 61% clip when playing behind an implied team total of at least 110 points at home. Doncic brings the highest ceiling on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool by nearly 15 fantasy points and is rating positively as a leverage target, despite the heavy ownership.
Continuing with the Mavs in this excellent spot, Christian Wood is an appealing option, with Stokastic projecting him for less than 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, which is compelling for a three-game slate. The ex-Rocket is coming off 35.25 DraftKings point showing in a brutal matchup against the Bucks and their league-best defense Sunday. Wood has now scored over 35 DraftKings points in four of his last six games and started the second half over Dwight Powell on Sunday, which could be a sign that Wood will be Dallas’ starting center going forward. Even if he remains a reserve, Wood should continue to handle the bulk of the playing time at center for the Mavs over the ineffective Powell with this club desperately in need of scoring after Doncic. Wood ranks second only to Doncic in usage (27.7%) and DraftKings PPM for Dallas this season (1.1) and has the potential for over 40 fantasy points in this elite matchup with Golden State.
Compared to the rest of the high-end options, Anfernee Simons is getting slightly overlooked in Stokastic’s ownership projections and is a strong target for GPPs. While the guard was a letdown with only 28.25 DraftKings points in his last start, there is plenty of reason to expect a bounce back performance for Simons. Damian Lillard (calf) will remain sidelined and before Sunday’s dud, Simons was averaging 44.5 DraftKings PPG in his six starts of the season without Lillard. With the guard off the court this season, Simons leads the Blazers with a 29.7% usage rate, which is a 2.9 percentage point upgrade from his average and supplies 1.1 DraftKings PPM. Simons is facing a depleted Clippers’ squad tonight and should rebound with at least 40 fantasy points.
Value Tier
The Clippers will be without Paul George (hamstring), Kawhi Leonard (knee) and John Wall (rest) tonight, making them the main source of value for this three-game slate. Coming in with the most expected ownership from the Clippers on both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections, Norman Powell is a player to consider fading tonight. Even with Los Angeles so understaffed, the wing will continue to come off the bench and while his usage will be encouraging, Powell primarily relies on scoring for his fantasy production, making his floor relatively unsafe, as we have seen recently, with the veteran recording less than 20 DraftKings points in three of his last seven games. While it’s obviously risky with Powell rating so well as a point per dollar value, rostering a chalky bench player is never smart and fading him is a necessary move to differentiate yourself for this short slate. While by no means a contrarian option, Terance Mann is projected for less ownership than Powell and is the better value to consider from the Clippers. Mann has started in four straight games and has ranked second on the team in playing time during this span. The guard has provided at least 28 DraftKings points in consecutive games and got all the way up to 38 minutes Sunday vs. the Pacers, which not only led Los Angeles in the win, but also set a new season high for Mann. Coming off this convincing 14-point victory and with Wall now unavailable, Mann will likely continue to lead the Clippers in minutes tonight and brings similar upside to Powell, at a lower cost and with less expected ownership. Mann is producing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with George, Leonard, and Powell off the court this season and 32.2 DraftKings PPG for the last 10 times he has logged over 30 minutes.
Isaiah Stewart (toe) will return tonight from a seven-game absence and is forecasted for less than 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections. The 21-year-old should resume his role as the Pistons’ starting center and this is an outstanding spot for him against the Knicks, who rank 23rd in defensive efficiency and sixth in pace. This contest’s total is up to 226.5 points and before getting injured on November 14th, Stewart had eclipsed 30 DraftKings points in six of his 10 previous starts.
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Situations to Monitor
The Pistons present a crowded injury report tonight, with Bojan Bogdanovic (knee/ankle) and Jaden Ivey (knee) questionable, while Cade Cunningham (shin) remains out. If Bogdanovic and Ivey join Cunningham on the inactive list for the second straight game, Killian Hayes will be a very appealing target, that could get slightly overlooked, given his salaries have reached new career highs on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With those three starters out Sunday, Hayes posted 32.75 DraftKings points across 32.4 minutes in a tough matchup against the Cavs, who rank third in defensive efficiency. The guard contributes one DraftKings PPM with a 23.7% usage rate with Bogdanovic, Cunningham and Ivey off the floor this season and as noted above, this a prime matchup vs. the Knicks, who rank 23rd in defensive efficiency and sixth in pace. Alec Burks would also need to be considered in this situation and would likely come with low ownership, given he is a reserve. With Bogdanovic, Ivey and Cunningham off the court this season, Burks’ usage rises to 32.7% and he leads the Pistons with 1.3 DraftKings PPM.
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