NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays: Domantas Sabonis & More

Tuesday’s NBA slate presents DFS players with three games to attack, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will use leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players that can help players win GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Tuesday, Jan. 3.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 3

High-End Tier

For tonight’s three-game slate, most lineups will end up constructed around superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Stokastic projects the two-time MVP for around 30% ownership at both DraftKings and FanDuel. While Antetokounmpo enters Tuesday coming off back-to-back performances with over 80 DraftKings points, it makes sense to fade him regardless. Those past two outbursts came with Jrue Holiday (probable, illness) out of the lineup, but he should return tonight. Before Holiday’s recent three-game absence, Antetokounmpo had only exceeded 60 DraftKings points in three of his previous 10 starts. Antetokounmpo’s matchup is also far from perfect tonight — his opponent, the Washington Wizards, rank 12th in defensive efficiency and 20th in pace.

While Antetokounmpo brings the highest ceiling on the slate in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool, the forward is priced accordingly, and he rates as a negative leverage target for both DraftKings and FanDuel. NBA DFS players must fade Antetokounmpo to separate themselves from the crowd.

Building a lineup around a cheaper, lower-owned Domantas Sabonis makes for a sharp NBA DFS pick. The center has scored 57.6 DraftKings points per game over his last eight starts. He even exceeded 50 DraftKings points in all but one of those games. Tonight, Sabonis will face a Jazz defense that ranks 26th in efficiency and has given up the most points in the paint this season. This contest presents the highest total on the slate (242.5 points) and also the smallest spread on the board, with Utah only favored by three points. Sabonis just posted a near triple-double of 52.75 DraftKings points against this same Jazz club last Friday. He has also scored no fewer than 50 DraftKings points in eight of his past 10 starts in games with totals of at least 235 points.

Lauri Markkanen, who will play opposite of Sabonis, also makes for a great target. Stokastic’s projections slate him for less than 20% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The forward has topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his past four starts, and this is an elite spot for the big man, as Sacramento ranks 24th in defensive efficiency and ninth in pace. Furthermore, Collin Sexton (hamstring) won’t play tonight, and with the guard off the floor, Markkanen’s usage has increased to 25.3%. As noted above, this contest’s total is the highest on the slate (242.5 points), and in his four starts in games with totals of at least 235 points, Markkanen has averaged 47 DraftKings points per game.

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Value Tier

With Sexton sidelined tonight, Stokastic projects Mike Conley and Malik Beasley to be two of the top-three most-owned players on the slate. Conley has a much more secure role as a starter and is worth rostering tonight, while Beasley is a fragile play as a reserve and worth fading. Conley enters tonight in promising form. He has amassed 30.8 DraftKings points in 31.2 minutes per game across his last four starts. In contrast, Beasley has struggled of late and has recorded fewer than 25 DraftKings points in six of his last eight games. Additionally, Beasley is only averaging 20.6 DraftKings points and 25.2 minutes per game in his last four contests without Sexton.

For low-owned value plays, Trey Lyles is an appealing punt, with Stokastic projecting him for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. After not seeing much usage to start the season, the veteran has seen a solid role off the bench recently. He has played 21.6 minutes per game in his last five contests, which has resulted in five-straight efforts of at least 20 DraftKings points. The 27-year-old is supplying 0.9 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a strong chance to chance to continue this streak against the Jazz. Also, Kevin Huerter (back) and Malik Monk (shoulder) are both questionable for the Kings, and their absences would result in some extra playing time for Lyles and further solidify him as one of the best NBA DFS picks on the slate.

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Situations to Monitor

Bradley Beal (hamstring) is questionable tonight after missing the last three games. The shooting guard participated in Washington’s shootaround and appears to be trending towards a return, but if he can’t go, Rui Hachimura will become one of the best value plays available for this short slate. Over Beal’s recent three-game absence, Hachimura has flourished with 34.7 DraftKings points per game, 29.3 minutes and a 27% usage rate. Daniel Gafford has also benefited with Beal absent and would be an excellent punt if the guard is unable to make his return. Gafford has contributed 30.2 DraftKings points and 26 minutes per game.

Robert Williams (injury management) also carries a questionable tag tonight and is a real threat to sit. If the center is inactive, Al Horford would see a large boost that would make him a tough value to overlook against the Thunder, who lead the NBA in pace. Williams hasn’t missed a game since before Christmas, but when he sat, Horford posted a season-best 47.75 DraftKings points in 36.2 minutes against the Wolves.

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