NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays: Ja Morant Worth Spending Up For

Friday delivers a 13-game slate, and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Nov. 25.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays

High-End Tier

With 13 games on tap, no specific stud is expected to be chalky Friday and there is some high upside, expensive options that are getting way overlooked with the ownership spread out in Stokasitc’s projections.

Slated to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Ja Morant is a tremendous GPP target tonight. Desmond Bane (toe) is out and tonight’s home matchup vs. the Pelicans carries the seventh highest total on the slate (227.5 points) and the tightest spread of the night (MEM -2.5). With Bane off the court this season, Morant’s usage has increased 3.3 percentage points to a whopping 42.2%, which would be the highest rate in the league by a huge gap if it was the guard’s average for the season. Morant scores 1.6 DraftKings PPM sans Bane and has been 3.9 DraftKings PPG better on his home floor this season, compared to when on the road. Furthermore, Morant erupted for 57.5 DraftKings points against this New Orleans’ club last week and is amassing 57.5 DraftKings PPG in spread under five points this season (five games).

De’Aaron Fox is another low-owned, lucrative player that needs to be on your radar tonight, with the Kings visiting the Celtics. Boston and Sacramento rank first and second in offensive efficiency this season, respectively, and both teams rank in the bottom-10 in defensive efficiency. Unsurprisingly, this game’s total is the second highest on the slate (237.5 points). Fox is leading the Kings with a 29.8% usage rate this season and is generating 47.4 DraftKings PPG for the nine occasions he has competed in a total of at least 230 points this season, when we exclude when Fox got injured vs. the Hornets on October 31st.

Anfernee Simons is also standing out as an elite GPP option. Coming off a quiet 31 DraftKings points outing vs. the Cavs, the guard shouldn’t be aggressively owned, for this perfect bounce back spot vs. the Knicks. Compared to Cleveland, who ranks second in defensive efficiency and 22nd in pace, New York ranks 20th in defensive efficiency and seventh in pace. Damian Lillard (calf) will remain out and in the five starts Simons has made without Lillard this season, he is supplying 42.6 DraftKings PPG. Simons is leading the Blazers with a 30.9% usage rate with Lillard off the court this season – which is a 3.8 percentage point upgrade from his average – and brings 50 fantasy upside tonight.

Value Tier

CJ McCollum (illness) will miss his second consecutive game tonight, Jose Alvarado is expected to be the chalk of the night, according to Stokastic’s projections. The guard replaced McCollum in the first unit Wednesday against the Spurs and delivered 26.25 DraftKings points. Alvarado logged 30 minutes and would have seen more if the Pelicans didn’t run away with a 19-point win. With tonight’s matchup with the Grizzlies presenting the smallest spread on the slate (MEM -2.5), Alvarado should approach 35 minutes and destroy his low price tags. The guard is producing right under one DraftKings PPM this season and 24 DraftKings PPG for the five instances he has logged over 20 minutes. Simply put, Alvarado is good chalk we should be eating. Attacking an unowned DeVonte’ Graham also has a ton of appeal with McCollum sidelined. Graham is averaging one DraftKings PPM with McCollum off the court his season and should receive 20-25 minutes off the bench tonight, with room for more, if Trey Murphy (questionable, foot) is also inactive. While inflated due to the blowout, Graham recorded 32.5 DraftKings points with McCollum out Wednesday and is providing 27 DraftKings PPG for the six times he has played at least 20 minutes this season.

Moving into the frontcourt, coming off a career-high 37 DraftKings points outing vs the Warriors on Wednesday, Tari Eason is projecting to be a top-five most owned player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections. While this was encouraging and Eric Gordon’s (injury management) absence should guarantee Eason for 20+ minutes, chasing his career performance from Wednesday doesn’t make sense for GPPs. The forward likely won’t start tonight and had scored less than 20 DraftKings points in four straight heading into Wednesday night. Plus, this Hawks’ defense Eason is facing ranks 10th in efficiency.

Particularly at only $4,800 on DraftKings, Paul Reed is a better frontcourt gamble for GPPs. Joel Embiid (foot) remains sidelined for the third straight game and after erupting for a career-best 42 DraftKings points in the first game without the center, Reed posted 26.5 DraftKings points vs. the Hornets on Wednesday. Going against a lengthy Magic squad tonight, the 76ers should be forced to play Reed 25+ minutes to match Orlando’s size. The big man is collecting one DraftKings PPM this season and has a ceiling over 30 fantasy points against this Magic defense that ranks 25th in efficiency. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Reed is projected for minimal ownership and owns a top-five leverage score on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.


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Situations to Monitor

Steven Adams (questionable, illness) was a late addition to the Grizzlies’ injury report today and is danger of sitting out this matchup with the Pelicans. If the center is out, Brandon Clarke would likely join the first unit and be a viable punt, but the main beneficiary would Jaren Jackson Jr., who has looked tremendous in the past two games, scoring 52 and then 41.75 DraftKings points. The forward would see more minutes at center with Adams out, helping his rebounding numbers, and would bring a huge ceiling. In the 392 minutes Jackson Jr. has played with Bane and Adams off the court over the last two seasons, he has contributed 1.23 DraftKings PPM, behind a 29.2% usage rate, which is a 3.3 percentage point upgrade from his average.

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