NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer: Play or Fade Jimmy Butler?

Tuesday presents a seven-game slate for DFS players to attack. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, NBA DFS players can examine leverage data from Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool to find the best high- and low-owned players to help build lineups capable of shooting to the top of the GPP leaderboards. These are the top NBA DFS picks for leverage on Tuesday.

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NBA DFS Picks Leverage & Optimizer Plays | Jan. 10

High-End Tier

The Heat won’t have Bam Adebayo (wrist), Kyle Lowry (knee) or Tyler Herro (Achilles) tonight. that means Jimmy Butler should draw chalky levels of ownership. He is projected for around 50% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, according to Stokastic’s projections.

Contrary to popular belief, Butler’s usage has barely changed with those three players off the floor over the last two seasons, increasing by only 0.2 percentage points. The forward has generally failed to flash much upside this season. He topped 50 DraftKings points in only six of his 27 starts. While his matchup against the fast-paced Thunder is an elite spot, fading Butler will allow NBA DFS players to distinguish themselves from the field and is a worthwhile gamble in GPPs.

While not a contrarian option, Kawhi Leonard should see far less ownership than Butler and is a better target at cheaper price points. Paul George (hamstring) is out, and when he sat out Sunday’s game, Leonard delivered 48.75 DraftKings points in 38.3 minutes, both of which marked new season highs for the two-time NBA Finals MVP. With George off the floor this season, Leonard’s usage increases by 2.3 percentage points to 29.1%, and he produces 1.3 DraftKings points per minute.

The is is an island game for the Clippers, and with them looking to snap a four-game losing streak, Leonard should face no limitations tonight. That means he should play between 35 and 40 minutes, especially since Los Angeles is only a 1.5-point favorite in the slate’s tightest matchup. Although the matchup isn’t ideal, as Dallas ranks second-to-last in pace, Leonard is vastly underpriced for the workload he should handle tonight at less than $9,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Joel Embiid (questionable, foot) went through shootaround this morning and appears to be trending in toward a return tonight. Coming off the three-game absence, the center is expected to get overlooked, specifically on DraftKings, where Stokastic is projecting him for only 10% ownership. That makes Embiid an elite leverage target barring any minutes restrictions. The 76ers will host a Pistons team that ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency and will be very thin up front, with Jalen Duren (ankle) and Marvin Bagley III (hand) both sidelined. Philadelphia carries the second-highest implied team total on the slate (119.5 points) and Embiid has been 7.6 DraftKings points per game better on his home floor than when on the road this season. The big man has exceeded 60 DraftKings in half of his home starts this season and is a strong bet to reach this feat in this prime matchup with the depleted Pistons.

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Value Tier

Opposite of Embiid, Isaiah Stewart should be chalky with both Duren and Bagley unavailable. Stokastic’s projections have Stewart at around 40% ownership at both DraftKings and FanDuel. While the big man thrived with Duren and Bagley out Sunday against the 76ers by posting 40.75 DraftKings points across 35.1 minutes, he didn’t have to worry about either Embiid or P.J. Tucker. Montrezl Harrell, a notoriously bad defender, got the start at center.

Stewart’s matchup with Embiid is a totally different ball game and should cause foul trouble for Stewart. The 76ers are a top-five defense this season, mostly due to Embiid’s presence in the paint, and expecting Stewart to come even close to his fantasy score from Sunday is unreasonable. He has a low floor in this brutal spot and is an easy fade with the massive ownership coming his way. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, Stewart rates as a bottom-three option in terms of leverage score for both DraftKings and FanDuel.

While fading Butler has merit tonight, the shorthanded Heat feature some unavoidable value plays, including Victor Oladipo and Orlando Robinson. In the 121 minutes Oladipo has played with Adebayo, Lowry and Herro off the floor over the last two seasons, Oladipo has led the Heat with a 29.7% usage rate — a massive 8.3-percentage point upgrade from his average — and has provided 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Oladipo should start tonight and is a lock for at least 30 fantasy points in this up-tempo spot against the Thunder.

While overpriced on FanDuel, Robinson is priced near the minimum on DraftKings and is good chalk. In the last three games that Adebayo has missed, Robinson served as Miami’s primary center and collected 31.3 DraftKings points in 31 minutes per game. On top of their league-high pace, the Thunder surrender the most rebounds and sixth most points in the paint, which makes this a dream matchup for opposing big men. Robinson could surpass 10-times value tonight and is the top DraftKings value on the slate in Stokastic’s projections by a sizeable gap.

Ivica Zubac is one of the best contrarian targets on the board. Stokastic’s projections forecast him for less than 5% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Like Leonard, Zubac benefited greatly with George inactive Sunday, going off for 46.5 DraftKings points in 37.4 minutes, which is the third-highest amount of playing time the center has seen this season. With a natural big man like Christian Wood on the other side, the Clippers will need Zubac to play plenty of minutes again tonight, and he brings a terrific ceiling relative to his mid-tier salary. Zubac’s production has ticked up to 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with George off the court, and he has scored over 30 DraftKings points in six of the 10 games he played without George, including a career-best 76.75 DraftKings point explosion against the Pacers in November.

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