Wednesday, 3/11/20 has a six-game main slate for our enjoyment. Before you lock in your NBA DFS lineups and NBA DFS picks on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s NBA DFS rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS Picks, including Luka Doncic, Julius Randle, Buddy Hield and more.
Not a member of Awesemo? No worries, sign up HERE to gain access to the world’s best DFS player’s projections, rankings, tools and premium live blog. Use promo code NBASTRATEGY for half off your first week!
Prime Time Players
Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets
DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $11,200, Yahoo $54; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 22.9%, FanDuel 36.1% Yahoo 24.3%
News just broke confirming that Kristaps Porzingis will be held out of action tonight on the second half of a back-to-back. This will be the fifth straight such game that he has missed, so it was not a surprise. The Nuggets defense has been slipping for some time and they have allowed 113.2 points per 100 possessions over their last 15 games, though they are bottom-five in pace during that same time frame.
Luka Doncic does everything for the Mavericks, leading the team in scoring, assists, steals and just a tenth of a rebound per game behind Porzingis at 9.4 per appearance. In 752.9 minutes this season without Porzingis on the court, Doncic is averaging 1.72 DraftKings points per minute with a 39.3% usage rate. Seth Curry will be out as well, so it will be up to Doncic to once again shoulder the load.
Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, share articles and have lots of giveaways. Just click HERE
Good Value
Julius Randle and Elfrid Payton: New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks
Randle: DraftKings $7,800, FanDuel $7,600, Yahoo $32; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 19.4%, FanDuel 30.9% Yahoo 34.6%
Last night, Julius Randle and the rest of the starters were pulled by coach Mike Miller at the 4:05 mark after trailing the Wizards by double digits. This cost a fair amount of run for both Randle and Elfrid Payton who were popular and gave an artificial boost in minutes to Frank Ntilikina and Bobby Portis. My supposition is that we will see Randle and Payton back to a more standard minutes range in what is an outstanding matchup. Additionally, since they did not play a lot last night there should be no real lasting effects of the back-to-back.
Over their last 15 games, the Hawks are allowing 117.0 points per 100 possessions which is the second-worst rate in the league. During this time frame, they are playing at the fifth-fastest pace. Do not be afraid to go back to the Knicks’ key contributors tonight.
Risky Value
Buddy Hield: Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
DraftKings $5,400, FanDuel $5,600, Yahoo $21; Ownership Rating (preliminary run): DraftKings 22.4%, FanDuel 6.3% Yahoo 2.0%
The main risk with Buddy Hield is that since moving to a bench role, he is getting about eight minutes less per game than he did as a starter. In the last 20 games he has played off the bench, Hield has topped 27 minutes just six times. The fantasy efficiency is just fine at 1.22 DraftKings points per minute, but he is averaging just 32.4 fantasy points per outing. The pace and marginal defense of the matchup are nice, but that can carry us only so far. If you are looking for a way to leverage against the field on DraftKings, then this is a spot to give Hield strong consideration.
In summary, Hield is a perfectly fine option at his current price point across the board. We just need to be cognizant that the profit potential on his salary is limited by his current minutes allocation
Yahoo Fantasy NBA DFS Discount Dandies
- Cody Martin: Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – $10
- Jordan McRae: Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers – $10
- Bobby Portis: New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks – $10
NBA DFS Picks: SuperDraft
- Luka Doncic: Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets – 1.15x multiplier
- De’Aaron Fox: Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans – 1.40x multiplier
- Devonte’ Graham: Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 1.50x multiplier
Our standout SuperDraft recommendations for today include Luka Doncic who is somehow getting a 15% boost on his fantasy production. De’Aaron Fox is in one of the most fantasy-friendly games on the slate with a loft 40% bonus. Finally, we have Devonte’ Graham who is in a tough matchup, but with a chance that his backcourt mate Terry Rozier will be out with an illness and he has a 50% kicker being added to his baseline fantasy production.
Final Thoughts
Currently, the Joel Embiid and Jimmy Butler news are holding the key to unlocking even more fantasy opportunities on tonight’s slate.
Be sure to tune into the Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock shows beginning at 5:00 p.m. EDT for all of your up-to-date information and analysis.
Looking for more NBA DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page, just click HERE
