The NBA playoffs start today and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Monday’s slate.
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Value Pick: Jordan Clarkson
DraftKings $3,800, FanDuel $4,400, Yahoo $15, SuperDraft N/A
For the start of the playoffs, it isn’t often to find value. This is because it stands to reason that most, if not all teams, come into the playoffs reasonably healthy and resting comes to a halt. For the Jazz, this is not the case. Clarkson was already in line for a bigger workload since Bojan Bogdanovic is out for the season and now Utah is dealing with additional concerns. Due to the birth of his child, Mike Conley left the bubble is out for today’s game. This creates a huge playing time and usage void to fill in the backcourt.
My first guess is that Donovan Mitchell will start at point guard with Clarkson starting alongside him as the shooting guard. Emmanuel Mudiay is also a candidate to start, but Clarkson is playing ahead of him in the bubble to this point. For this reason, I assume Clarkson is in line for more minutes. If Mudiay starts, fire him up as a value play. When on the court, Clarkson shoots without hesitation. This isn’t always great for the Jazz, but it is great for us as fantasy players. Despite poor efficiency, Clarkson posted a usage rating of at least 28% in each of the Jazz’s final eight regular season games.
Stud Pick: Kemba Walker
DraftKings $6,900, FanDuel $6,000, Yahoo $25, SuperDraft N/A
With the playoffs starting, the training wheels come off Walker. The Celtics played it extremely cautious with their star point guard during the final stretch of the regular season. In the final eight games, he rested twice and averaged just 25 minutes per game. The good news is that Walker didn’t show any signs of rust during his limited minutes. He shot 49.1% from the field and 82.4% from the free throw line. Walker’s fantasy production was only held back by a lack of playing time. There is no legitimate injury concern, but the Celtics lacked motivation to go 100% for wins at the end of the season with their playoff spot basically locked in.
Now that Walker figures to play his normal 35 or so minutes, he is much too cheap across all DFS sites. He spent a good portion of the season priced around $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, so his discounted price is nothing other than a result of a recent minutes reduction. With the playing time going back to normal levels and his per minute production still looking good, Walker figures to see a sharp price increase in the near future. As an added bonus, his matchup against the 76ers is easier than normal since Ben Simmons is injured.
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Fade Pick: Jayson Tatum
DraftKings $8,500, FanDuel $8,300, Yahoo $41, SuperDraft N/A
Truthfully, there isn’t one player on this slate I feel totally comfortable fading. This slate only has four games and all of the core players figure to play big minutes since this is the playoffs. With that said, I think there is reason to believe Tatum is a bit overpriced. This is because of the player I mentioned above. Since Walker is back to playing a full workload, Tatum is in line for a bit less usage and touches. While he had an outstanding breakout season is clearly one of the top young stars in the league, Boston plays with a balanced attack on offense. Between Tatum, Walker, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward, this offense has a lot of mouths to feed. For the season, Tatum has a 28.8% usage rating. When Walker is on the court, Tatum’s usage dips to 24.5%.