NBA playoff action is underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Wednesday’s slate.
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NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for August 19th
Value Pick: Jordan Clarkson
DraftKings $4,700, FanDuel $5,100, Yahoo $17, SuperDraft 1.75x
On the first playoff slate, Clarkson produced as we expected him to. As the highest owned player in most contests, he came through with just under 30 fantasy points at a cheap salary. Even though he is likely to draw massive ownership again, I am going back to the well. As long as Mike Conley remains out for the Jazz, this team needs to fill minutes and usage in the backcourt. Don’t forget, Bojan Bogdanovic played a massive role for Utah during the regular season he’s out for the playoffs after undergoing wrist surgery.
Even though the Jazz started Juwan Morgan last game, Clarkson still played big minutes. The expectation was for Clarkson to start, but he played ample minutes off the bench. Since he played 39 minutes in a game that went to overtime, I don’t think it matters whether he’s a starter or reserve today. He’s a good play either way. When Clarkson is on the court, we know he is going to get his shots up. In the bubble, he boasts 30.6% usage rating and it seems like he’s passed the ball a total of maybe four times in the bubble. When Clarkson touches the rock, he is trying to put up points as if he made NBA DFS lineups and rostered himself.
Stud Pick: Luka Doncic
DraftKings $11,000, FanDuel $10,500, Yahoo $55, SuperDraft 1x
It is a little annoying how the NBA schedule works out for NBA DFS. Without back-to-backs and no travel days, the same teams play on the same days. The way the schedule worked out, there is an imbalance of stars on the slates. Every other day we get a slate with James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard. This leaves as Doncic as a standout on the days the Mavericks play since by far the top overall fantasy option on the days he plays. This is the case for the entire first round.
Not only does a lack of high end options make Luka somewhat of an obvious play, Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. It’s unclear how he got injured since he got ejected early from last game. Even so, KP is listed as questionable on the injury report due to knee soreness. If he’s not able to play, Doncic is in line for a massive role. He has a 39.3% usage rating when Porzingis is off the court. We saw Luka carry the Mavericks’ offense after KP was tossed on Monday and the defense of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard didn’t hinder Doncic’s fantasy production.
Fade Pick: Donovan Mitchell
DraftKings $9,200, FanDuel $8,200, Yahoo $35, SuperDraft 1.45x
Yes, I know. Fading Mitchell could go extremely poorly. If you are playing cash games, roster him and I don’t have an issue with it. In tournaments, I am going to look off of Mitchell due to ownership reasons. He absolutely crushed on Monday in an overtime loss against Denver. Mitchell played 43 minutes and scored 57 points while carrying a 43.8% usage rating. With Conley out, the Jazz will rely heavily on Mitchell to create offense. Everybody is aware of this after what happened in Game 1 and his ownership figures to spike.
There are a couple of things that stand out as unsustainable about Mitchell’s game on Monday. First off, the game went to overtime. This was actually the second consecutive game that Nuggets and Jazz played that went to overtime. The game played before this actually went to double-overtime. Despite this fact, these teams will play games that end in regulation more often than not an less minutes means less production. In addition, Mitchell shot 57.6% from the field. He’s bound to miss more shots going forward and figures to shoot a bit less when making less shots. Mitchell shot 45.2% from the field in the regular season. I am just hoping he doesn’t go off again tomorrow since there are better per dollar plays.
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