NBA Bubble action is underway, and with it comes NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Saturday’s slate.
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NBA DFS Value Pick: Kelly Olynyk
DraftKings $4,900, FanDuel $4,800, Yahoo $17, SuperDraft 1.75x
Olynyk is playing at the highest level of his career in the bubble. While fantasy players are taking notice, it doesn’t look like DFS sites are since his price remains much too cheap. With Jimmy Butler out, Olynyk is now starting for the Heat and taking advantage of the opportunity. In the last couple of games as a stater, the big man is averaging 14 points, six rebounds and five assists. With Butler once again out, Olynyk will stick in the starting unit. As for his assist numbers and playmaking ability, this aspect of his game is sorely needed for Miami at the moment. Not only is Butler out, Kendrick Nunn is away from the team and Goran Dragic is questionable.
Relative to his price tag, I don’t think a bust is much of a risk. Even though Olynyk is a high variance player, he averages about a fantasy point per minute for the season. Due to how well he’s playing at the injury situation for Miami, he’s playing time seems secure. Olynyk played over 30 minutes in three consecutive games. There’s also room for positive regression in his shooting numbers. Olynyk’s DFS stats are propped up by his peripheral stats, but he’s only shooting 31.6% from the field as a starter. With some regression to the mean from the field, we could get a monster all-around game from Olynyk.
NBA DFS Stud Pick: Paul George
DraftKings $8,000, FanDuel $7,700, Yahoo $36, SuperDraft N/A
The way the Clippers are handling the stars in the bubble is a surprise to me. If I made a list a couple weeks ago of teams likely to limit the minutes of starters in the final games of the regular season, I would list the Clippers near the top. Instead, both George and Kawhi Leonard are getting plenty of run. In fact, PG13 played over 34 minutes in all of the Clippers’ bubble games other than a blowout win over the Pelicans. LA led by 20 or more for most of the game, leaving no reason to play starters in the fourth quarter.
With all this playing time, George is averaging over 40 fantasy points per game in Orlando and only received a minor bump in salary across the industry. I think his price tag should be about $1,000 more expensive. Not only is George too cheap, this is a great matchup. The Blazers rank 26th in the league in defensive efficiency and there is a good chance that George draws defense from Carmelo Anthony for stretches of this game. Even though Melo is playing some of the best defense of his career to help push Portland towards a playoff birth, this is still a positive matchup for PG.
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NBA DFS Fade Pick: Michael Porter Jr.
DraftKings $7,200, FanDuel $7,800, Yahoo $26, SuperDraft 1.65x
Porter busting everybody’s lineups at min price last week is a distant memory of the past. Since that fateful afternoon, he is averaging over 30 points per game. The problem is that with this increase in production, MPJ is also much more expensive in DFS. By far, he has the highest salary of his career and Denver is going to have a bit more depth this game than last. Paul Millsap is expect to play after resting on Thursday, while Jamal Murray is listed as questionable. Yes, Murray sat after getting the questionable tag in each of the last four games, but Denver is going to get him reps to gear up for the playoffs at some point.
The other thing to consider with Porter is that his shooting is not sustainable. Even though he has the making of one of the top offensive prospects in the league, Porter is shooting over 60% from the field in the last three games. His usage (24.7%) in the bubble is high, but not exceptionally so. Porter figures to start missing more shots going forward and, with the Nuggets getting healthier, he won’t get as many shots up. In addition to all of this, a matchup against the Jazz is far from ideal.
eventually porter will have a game like TJ Warren’s last game.