NBA DFS action on Sunday, March 28, locks at 7 p.m. ET with a three-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Before you lock in your lineups, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball picks, including Fred VanVleet, Nikola Jokic, Dennis Schroder and more.
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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Sunday, March 28th
Yahoo Play of the Day — Dennis Schroder: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Orlando Magic
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 35.28 | DraftKings: 36.93
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 40.2% | FanDuel 26.3% | DraftKings 36.7%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $25 | FanDuel $7,700 | DraftKings $7,100
On our short Sunday slate, Dennis Schroder stands out as one of the best options on Yahoo. With Anthony Davis and LeBron James on the sideline, Schroder should have a $30 salary. NBA WOW shows that Schroder is averaging 1.08 Yahoo fantasy points per minute in 366 minutes this season without that dynamic duo.
This is an all-hands-on-deck situation for the Lakers, as they need to secure every win they can while their two best players are on the shelf. Orlando dealt most of their starting lineup and are assimilating several new players. In a fun twist, Los Angeles is actually a 6.5-point favorite. By no means will this be a walk in the park, and Schroder should see 30 to 35 minutes tonight.
Nikola Jokic: Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 50.71 | DraftKings: 53.01
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 30.4% | FanDuel 23.1% | DraftKings 22.9%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $56 | FanDuel $11,300 | DraftKings $10,400
If you are still playing NBA DFS at this point in the season, you are well aware that raw points are key on short slates. The Awesemo projections have Nikola Jokic as the only player with 50-plus fantasy points. Additionally, he is projecting for a full 10 points more than any other player, which is a fairly wide chasm.
The matchup against Atlanta is a good one, as Clint Capela has not done much to limit Jokic. In their last three meetings, Jokic has posted 43, 61 and 55 fantasy points. He is playing at an MVP level with 27.2 points, 11.1 rebounds, 8.6 assists and 2.2 combined blocks/steals. While the salary is daunting on FanDuel, it can work on the other sites with their looser position restrictions.
Fred VanVleet: Toronto Raptors vs. Portland Trail Blazers
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 35.99 | DraftKings: 37.41
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 33.2% | FanDuel 55.7% | DraftKings 27.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $34 | FanDuel $7,400 | DraftKings $7,800
Fred VanVleet has played at least 39 minutes in four of his six games since returning from his bout with COVID-19. Across these half dozen games he is averaging 37.5 minutes and 16.5 field-goal attempts. This has resulted in 20.0 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.3 combined blocks/steals. VanVleet has been outstanding on the season, averaging 1.1 fantasy points per minute. The matchup against Portland is a good one, and so VanVleet should be in most rosters tonight.
Good Value
Montrezl Harrell: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Orlando Magic
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 39.8 | DraftKings: 39.96
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 37.0% | FanDuel 35.2% | DraftKings 37.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $29 | FanDuel $7,200 | DraftKings $7,400
In 400 minutes without Anthony Davis and LeBron James on the court this season, Montrezl Harrell is averaging a phenomenal 1.27 fantasy points per minute. In the four games since LeBron was injured, Harrell has averaged 32.6 minutes, 21.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists and 1.5 combined blocks/steals. While Wendell Carter Jr. is an OK defender, this will be his first game in an Orlando uniform playing with new teammates. Harrell gets a lot of his fantasy production through hustle and energy plays, and that should continue again on Sunday.
Risky Value
Michael Porter Jr.: Denver Nuggets vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 30.46 | DraftKings: 31.34
- Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 18.6% | FanDuel 31.7% | DraftKings 19.5%
- DFS Salary: Yahoo $28 | FanDuel $6,500 | DraftKings $6,800
The Awesemo Boom/Bust tool is one of the most useful premium offerings available. It distills everything down to probabilities and can be very helpful in eliminating personal bias. Today the Nuggets are projected to score 113 points, which should provide ample fantasy goodness in their matchup with the Hawks.
The Awesemo Boom/Bust tool gives Michael Porter Jr. a 20.5% probability of being in the DraftKings optimal lineup. Keep in mind that with just six teams in the player pool, that percentage will be naturally higher than when there are more players available. Porter’s boom score (5x salary + 10) is 44 DraftKings points, and there is just a 5.9% chance of him exceeding that milestone. Conversely there is a 64.2% probability of him falling below his bust score of 5x salary or 34 points.
Also remember that Aaron Gordon will be making his Denver debut, and that may have an impact on Porter’s opportunities and playing time while the rotation is sorted out.
Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies
- Michael Carter-Williams: ORL at LAL – $15
- Chuma Okeke: ORL at LAL – $13
- Wendell Carter Jr.: ORL at LAL – $14
SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks
- Michael Carter-Williams: ORL at LAL – 1.75x multiplier
- Montrezl Harrell: LAL vs. ORL – 1.35x multiplier
- O.G. Anunoby: TOR at POR – 1.65x multiplier
Final Thoughts on Saturday, March 28th NBA DFS Slate
Several of the teams playing tonight will be debuting their recent trade acquisitions. This could have some rotations in flux, so be sure to watch for any clues coming out of today’s press conferences. Be nimble and keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.
